Remember when you were 20? How consistent were your emotions? How predictable was your temperament? What about when you were tired and you could see a break coming?
Keep those variables in mind in Week 14. These players have been focused solely on football since early August. Four long months are set to end for many teams this weekend. And even for teams with bowl games ahead, their focus may be prone to wander.
This is all only natural. But it is also not the easiest thing to predict. So be prudent and pick your college football picks more warily than ever.
That approach led this column to a 3-2 week last week, gaining 1.11 units, though still in the red on the season at 26.5-33.5, -6.88 units.
Note, though, that there are only four bets below. Proper process does not chase bets right now simply because the season is ending. That would be prone to only backfire.
College football predictions for Week 14
Picks made on 11-28. Click on each pick to see full analysis.
College football Week 14 predictions
Western Kentucky -1.5 vs. Jacksonville State
Best odds: -110 at FanDuel
This may be the most mispriced number on the board this week. Why? Almost certainly only because Western Kentucky has gone 0-4 against the spread in its last four games, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 11.25 points in those four games.
But that fails to realize the Hilltoppers gave up a garbage-time touchdown to each of Kennesaw State and New Mexico State. Those were hardly concerning in those blowouts.
Include those two successes and Western Kentucky exceeded expectations in eight straight games ending up until two games ago.
And now the Hilltoppers need to win to have a chance at the Conference USA championship, where Jacksonville State is already heading.
If Western Kentucky wins and Sam Houston State beats Liberty as a 2.5-point home underdog, then the Hilltoppers and the Gamecocks will meet again next week in Jacksonville, Ala. Why would Jacksonville State show anything on the road this week? It has already sealed a berth in the conference championship game, it should play conservatively and focus on that moment.
One of these teams needs a win to have a chance at its biggest prize. The other has nothing to gain in this moment and plenty to lose.
Furthermore, Western Kentucky has a passing offense that should cut through Jacksonville State, succeeding on 43.7% of dropbacks, No. 37 in the country, per cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com.
That consistent ability to stay ahead of the chains will set up the Hilltoppers for an efficient afternoon at home, and why would the Gamecocks trot out a new coverage to stymie that now? They would rather learn this weekend and deploy appropriate adjustments next week if they are facing Western Kentucky again.
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— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 26, 2024
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Texas Tech -3 vs. West Virginia
Best odds: -108 at FanDuel
Could both Texas Tech and West Virginia still reach the Big 12 title game? Technically, yes. But as soon as Colorado wins on Friday — a 16-point home favorite against Oklahoma State, yet to record a single win in conference play — both the Raiders and the Mountaineers will be eliminated from those greater aspirations.
So remove that thought as a motivating factor.
Instead, focus on West Virginia’s middling rush defense, No. 44 in the country in expected points added per rush against, and No. 53 in success rate. That is fine, but not good enough to slow Texas Tech running back Tajh Brooks. The Raiders have leaned on him more and more this season, with 27.8 carries in his last five games and gaining 4.6 yards per rush. He has scored at least one touchdown in nine of his 10 games this season.
Leaning on Brooks will work once more in his final home game in Lubbock. That will turn Texas Tech’s offense into what should be the best unit on the field as it goes against the worst one.
That matchup advantage alone puts confidence in the Raiders to prevail as such short favorites, particularly in a home game.
Virginia moneyline at Virginia Tech
Best odds: +220 at BetMGM
The Virginia Tech Hokies should win. They are the better team.
But this is a rivalry, the Commonwealth Cup having more at stake this year with both Virginia and Virginia Tech seeking bowl eligibility. Neither is ending the season well, with the Cavaliers 1-5 outright in their last six games and the Hokies 0-3 outright in their last three.
The greatest difference between these two slides is that Virginia Tech was favored in two of its three losses and only a one-possession underdog in the third, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations in all three games and by an average of 6.7 points while Virginia was an underdog in four of its five outright losses, nearing bookmakers’ expectations by 3.3 points in those six games, going 3-3 ATS in that stretch.
The Cavaliers won as 7.5-point underdogs at Pittsburgh on Nov. 9 with the Panthers having to spend much of the game relying on backup quarterback Nate Yarnell. He went 4-of-12 for 44 yards, adding one touchdown and two interceptions.
Virginia Tech may be beyond its backup quarterback this weekend. Star dual-threat QB Kyron Drones has been injured for a few weeks now and should not be considered likely to play until he is seen taking a snap during a game. Then comes Collin Schlee with a possible concussion worry.
“They’re both questionable,” Hokies head coach Brent Pry said Wednesday. “I’d say Schlee is a little further along, but I wish I felt better about it today. … They may just be watching. They are in the treatment protocol. Both of them.”
Read between those lines and assume Schlee is also sidelined. That will bring Virginia Tech to Pop Watson. A former three-star recruit, the sophomore went 12-of-25 for 146 yards last week at Duke, adding one interception.
The likelihood of the Hokies becoming a one-dimensional offense will be a problem against a Cavaliers’ defense better suited against the run than the pass.
There would be logic in the conservative thought of taking Virginia at +7.5 (-115 at FanDuel), but in a rivalry game, let’s take the value in variance, especially given the psychological toll these quarterback injuries have undoubtedly taken on Virginia Tech’s locker room.
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New Mexico -3 at Hawaii
Best odds: -110 at BetMGM
This is the last game of the college football regular season. Of course, this column includes a bet on it.
The New Mexico Lobos are chasing their first bowl game since 2016; they could end up in their first bowl outside of the state of New Mexico in two decades. Bronco Mendenhall’s maiden season has been a resounding success, particularly given how little of a returning roster he enjoyed entering the year.
The Lobos have rattled off two upset wins in a row to reach the brink of bowl eligibility, drastically improving as this season has gone along. After an 0-4 start, they have gone 5-2 outright with three wins as underdogs, also going 5-2 ATS during this surge.
Hawaii, meanwhile, has lost two straight, including by 45 points last week at Utah State as a 2.5-point favorite. That kind of faceplant may indicate this team is ready to end its season, frustrating as that may be.
New Mexico’s offense will be, by far, the best unit on the field. In particular, its rushing attack should dictate the terms. The No. 9 rushing offense in terms of success rate in the country at 48.3% also helps get ahead of the chains on early downs, the Lobos ranking No. 10 in EPA on first and second downs, creating the kind of offensive flexibility that the Rainbow Warriors’ lackluster defense will not be able to match.
And “lackluster” was just used to describe the stronger half of Hawaii. As much as the Lobos’ defense is a weakness — No. 131 in EPA — it knows to focus on defending the pass late Saturday night, the Warriors preferring to throw the ball 6.7% more often than the average team would in a given game state.
To counter that, put faith in Mendenhall’s coaching experience.
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