The Rutgers Scarlet Knights look to snap a three-game losing streak as they head to the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum for a Friday night matchup against the USC Trojans.
Lincoln Riley’s squad is also on a three-game losing streak, setting the table for what feels like a must-win game for both sides.
We’re taking a closer look at the player prop market with our three favorite college football picks for Friday, October 26.
Rutgers vs USC props for FOX Friday Night Football
- Woody Marks Over 97.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
- Zachariah Branch Over 33.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
- Ja’Kobi Lane anytime touchdown (+175 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 10-25.
Read full analysis of each pick.
College football player props this week
Prop bet #1: Woody Marks Over 97.5 rushing yards
Best odds: -115 at BetMGM
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights have simply been unable to stop opposing ground games, ranking 120th in EPA per rush and 118th in rushing success rate. They have already surrendered 1,192 yards and 13 scores on the ground, which would be a terrific season for any tailback, let alone through seven games.
Don’t be fooled by last week’s showing when they allowed just 95 yards and a score on the ground against UCLA — the Bruins are one of the most pathetic rushing attacks in the country. Before that, they were crushed for 309 yards and five scores by Wisconsin.
Even lowly teams like Howard (145 yards and a score) and Akron (156 yards and a score) have been able to find success on the ground against the Scarlet Knights. The USC Trojans rank 16th in rushing success rate and the OL ranks 11th in line yards, so this should be a successful day at the office for Lincoln Riley’s team.
Woody Marks leads the running back room and has eclipsed 100 yards in four of his last six games. He’s averaged 19 rushing attempts across his last four games and with that kind of volume, he would need to average 5.1 yards per rush to hit the Over on his rushing yardage prop of 97.5.
Marks averages 5.6 yards per rush on the year while Rutgers has surrendered sizable clips to every good rushing attack it has faced (6.8 to Virginia Tech, 7.1 to Washington, and 6.6 to Wisconsin). Give me Marks to hit the Over on his rushing yardage prop.
Prop bet #2: Zachariah Branch Over 33.5 receiving yards
Best odds: -115 at BetMGM
It’s time to buy low on Zachariah Branch.
The former five-star recruit hasn’t shown up like many expected in his sophomore year, catching 27 passes for 276 yards and no touchdowns. Sure. Still, we’re getting one of the sport’s most electric playmakers at a discounted price of 33.5 receiving yards when he’s facing a banged-up defense?
Sign me up.
Rutgers is dealing with a lot of injuries. It was without both its starting defensive ends (Wesley Bailey and Aaron Lewis) last week while starting cornerbacks Robert Longerbeam and Eric Rogers are trying to play through injuries.
That resulted in a disastrous performance a week ago when a theretofore lifeless UCLA offense threw for 383 yards and four touchdowns. With the pash rush suffering and the cornerbacks hampered, it won’t be time to believe in improvement until we are given a very good reason.
Branch leads the Trojans in targets (43) and shouldn’t need many catches to hit the Over considering he’s so dangerous with the ball in his hands. He’s gone Over this number in four of seven games this season and is too talented for me to look the other way with a price like this.
Prop bet #3: Ja’Kobi Lane anytime touchdown
Best odds: +175 at BetMGM
There is simply no world in which Ja’Kobi Lane should be priced at +175 as an anytime touchdown scorer. That’s in any matchup, let alone one against a banged-up defense that was just torched by a terrible UCLA offense.
Does that mean this prop will hit? Who knows — it’s betting, and we play the numbers. This number is off.
Going into the year, it seemed likely that Lane would lead this team in receiving touchdowns after getting hyped up in the offseason. He stands 6’4” and is a fantastic target in the red zone, which was on full display against Louisville in the Holiday Bowl when he snared two touchdowns.
That connection with quarterback Miller Moss has carried over to this season as Lane leads the Trojans with five touchdown receptions. He simply must be accounted for any time his team is anywhere near the end zone as he’s an elite aerial threat.
Rutgers was thought to be a tough test against the pass, allowing four passing touchdowns across its first six games. That school of thought went out the window after the Scarlet Knights allowed four passing touchdowns in last week's game to UCLA.
A lot of that regression has to do with injuries, but it’s not like that concern is mitigated after a short week where they’re travelling across the country to face a potent offense that ranks 18th in success rate.
Give me Lane to go dancing in the end zone.
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