Tennessee vs Oklahoma Player Props & Best Bets: Brazzell Puts Numbers on the Board

Prop bet #1: Dylan Sampson Over 86.5 rushing yards

-115 at BetMGM

Oklahoma’s defense has done a solid job limiting teams from getting big gains on the ground, allowing just 0.6 second-level yards per carry. But they’ve got an average stuff rate, and they’re allowing nearly three yards before contact. That’s not going to be enough to stop Dylan Sampson on Saturday.

Despite having been on the field for less than half of Tennessee’s drives this season, the junior back has 357 yards and nine touchdowns on just 45 carries. He’s averaging nearly eight yards a carry and gained 132 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries against NC State two weeks ago.

And much of Sampson’s success this season has come despite only having four runs of 15+ yards. He’s a consistent runner who has gained 20 first downs, and the Vols have utilized him heavily on multiple drives so far. He’s also getting terrific push from his offensive line, averaging 3.9 line yards per rush.

Tennessee’s offense ranks eighth nationally in rushing efficiency, and Oklahoma is in the Top 20 in defensive efficiency against the run. But the Sooners haven’t faced a line or a running back anywhere near this caliber — and Sampson has shown he can do it against some of the best defenses. 

Sampson posted 133 rushing yards on 20 carries against Iowa when Tennessee faced them in the Citrus Bowl at the end of last season. That’s the same Iowa defense that limited Michigan’s Blake Corum to just 52 yards on 16 carries.

The dominant start for Nico Iamalaeva will also make it harder for Oklahoma to key on Sampson. The freshman quarterback is averaging better than 10 yards a pass, and is a threat to pull the ball and run at any time should the Sooners crash down on option plays. 

Makhi Hughes of Tulane ran for 71 yards on 19 carries last week, and if Sampson gets that many carries here, I like him to approach 100 yards. I’ll take him at the current number of 86.5, and would play him up to 90. 

Prop bet #2: Jackson Arnold Under 235.5 passing yards

-115 at BetMGM

Jackson Arnold’s two touchdown runs last week saved the Sooners from defeat against Tulane. And it’s a good thing, because he wasn’t doing a whole lot through the air against the Green Wave.

The sophomore completed 18 of 29 passes for just 169 yards, marking the third time in as many games that he averaged less than six yards per attempt. And while he threw four touchdowns in the opener against Temple, he’s had just three scoring tosses versus two picks since the competition stepped up.

So, I’m sitting here scratching my head as to why his passing total against Tennessee is more than 60 yards higher than any total he’s posted so far in 2024. And yes, I understand folks are expecting this game to be a high-scoring affair where Oklahoma will likely play from behind.

But for me, that just feeds into the Under even more. The Sooners have just a 25% success rate on pass plays this season, and a key reason for that is their inability to protect Arnold. They rank in the 100s in sack rate, and their 63% completion rate has them ranked near the middle of the pack.

Enter Tennessee’s nasty defense. They’re wreaking Havoc at a rate of nearly 28%, are limiting teams to a 20% success rate on passing downs, and rank second nationally in EPA per dropback. 

The other issue at play is Arnold’s inability to push the ball downfield. He’s completed just two of his 13 attempts of 20+ yards, and he’s got an average depth of target of only nine yards. The Vols have given up just 125 yards after catch, and starting corners Jermod McCoy and Rickey Gibson III have allowed only 59 receiving yards on 14 targets.

Even with the return of wideout Nic Anderson, Arnold will struggle to reach this passing total. He will be pressured early and often, will not be able to find chunk plays, and will be held in check by one of the best defenses in college football. 

Prop bet #3: Chris Brazzell II anytime touchdown

+190 at BetMGM

I really like Chris Brazzell II to top his receiving yardage total of 41.5 yards, and it’s a safe play. But I like to get greedy, and backing the wideout to find the endzone holds solid value.

First of all, he’s huge. Like, 6’5” huge. The kind of huge you want when you get into the red zone. Especially when you’re facing a secondary where the tallest starter is 6’2”, and he’s the only one of the four who is taller than six feet.

Brazzell has caught a team-high 10 passes for 140 yards and a touchdown so far, and he could have even more. He’s been targeted 20+ yards downfield four times but has caught just one of them. That one led to his score though, a 53-yard bomb where he simply outran the coverage. 

It’s very likely that Brazzell will be facing Dezjhon Malone, who will be giving up five inches in height to the Volunteer receiver. Malone hasn’t been targeted much downfield this season, but he’s the Oklahoma corner opposing offenses have targeted the most overall. 

The Sooners are allowing an EPA of 1.44 per successful pass play against, and Brazzell’s average depth of target so far is 16.5 yards. His combination of height and speed make him a threat every time he runs a route.

Brazzell is just one target behind Bru McCoy for the team lead, and has more catches. When the Vols get into the redzone, he will likely see one-on-one coverage as Oklahoma tries to stop Sampson and the rushing attack. Brazzell will become the obvious target, and that makes his price very favorable to haul in a score.