Florida vs Mississippi State NCAAF Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets: These Bulldogs Are Barking

The Florida Gators visit the Mississippi State Bulldogs on Saturday afternoon as both SEC schools try to climb out of early-season deficits.

Gators head coach Billy Napier's seat is already hot, but my Florida vs. Mississippi State predictions and college football picks believe it might catch fire on September 21

Florida vs Mississippi State prediction

My best bet
Mississippi State +6.5 (-105 at BetMGM)

My analysis
It's a football truism that "if you have two quarterbacks, you have none," and the Florida Gators are proving why that old saw still has teeth. 

Ignoring Florida's drubbing of the Southern Conference's Samford Bulldogs, the Gators have gotten some lacking QB play from Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway. Mertz left Game 1 vs. the Miami Hurricanes with a concussion after going a modest 11-for-20 through the air for just 91 yards with no touchdowns and an interception. 

Lagway attempted just six throws in relief in a 41-17 slaughter and completed only three of them, notching an INT of his own. While Lagway was able to pile up 456 yards and three scores vs. hapless Samford, reality bit him hard last week as he went 6-for-13 with two picks vs. Texas A&M. 

Mertz finished out the 33-20 loss by going 12-for-15 with 195 yards, a touchdown, and an interception. Now Billy Napier wants to roll with two QBs vs. the Mississippi State Bulldogs in a hostile Davis Wade Stadium for the Gators' first road game of 2024, with Lagway figuring to get the start officially. 

That spells disaster to me.

While the Bulldogs have forced only one INT through three games, they have held the opposition to a respectable 174.3 passing yards per game, good for 45th in the country. 

Florida will be Mississippi State's easiest opponent over the next month, as it faces No. 1 Texas, No. 2 Georgia, and No. 25 Texas A&M in the coming weeks. While the Bulldogs dropped the ball at home vs. Toledo, Jeff Lebby's men should see this as the last opportunity to pick up a win for a while.

I'll take a hungry Mississippi State team and the points at home, which would drop Florida to 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS.

Florida vs Mississippi State same-game parlay (SGP)

Mississippi State +6.5

Over 58.5

Blake Shapen 250+ passing yards

+425 at BetMGM

These defenses have been anything but sharp over the first few weeks of the season, with Florida allowing 41 points to Miami and 33 to Texas A&M. Meanwhile, Mississippi State surrendered 30 points to Arizona State and 41 to Toledo.

Sign me up for the Over, as the Gators' offense isn't totally punchless. Montrell Johnson Jr. will do what he can on the ground vs. a Bulldogs defense that's coughed up 213.7 rushing yards per game, 121st in the nation.

I'm also bullish on the Mississippi State passing game, led by Blake Shapen. The Baylor transfer is completing over 70% of his throws in his first season in Starkville, accumulating seven touchdowns vs. only one interception. 

Shapen has averaged 278 passing yards over his first three contests in 2024 and should find success vs. Florida's 92nd-rated pass-stoppers (235.7 yards allowed per game).

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Florida vs Mississippi State odds

Florida vs Mississippi State live odds

Florida vs Mississippi State opening odds

• Spread: Florida -6 | Mississippi State +6
• Moneyline: Florida -190 | Mississippi State +155
• Over/Under: Over 56.5 | Under 56.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Florida vs Mississippi State spread and Over/Under analysis

• The spread opened at Florida -6 and quickly dipped to -4.5 by Sunday evening.
• The action has been squarely on the Gators since, with the line inflating to -6.5 by Friday afternoon.
• The total opened at 56.5 and has seen one-way action since Sunday, drifting up two full points.

Florida vs Mississippi State betting trend to know

The Gators have hit the Over in nine of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Florida vs Mississippi State.

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