The spread in the Peach Bowl has shortened this week as concern around the Texas Longhorns’ offensive line has yet to be entirely dissipated. But that should hardly be a worry for Texas against the Arizona State Sun Devils, in large part because the Longhorns’ defense should darken the Sun Devils.
My Texas vs. Arizona State predictions focus on some Sun Devils’ Unders, less because of doubt in them and more because of faith in the Longhorns. Kickoff comes at 1 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 1.
Texas vs Arizona State props for the Peach Bowl
Cam Skattebo Under 99.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)- Sam Leavitt Under 0.5 passing touchdowns (+170 at BetMGM)
Isaiah Bond anytime touchdown (+220 at BetMGM)
Picks made on 12-30.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Texas vs Arizona State Peach Bowl player props
Prop bet #1: Cam Skattebo Under 99.5 rushing yards
Cam Skattebo has not been held to double-digits rushing in his last three games. He fell short of 100 yards in just two of his last eight games. Then why bet it now?
Because Texas, that’s why.
If the Longhorns make it to the national championship game, it will be because of their defense. In terms of expected points added (EPA) per snap against, it is the No. 3 defense in the country, according to cfb-graphs at collegefootballinsiders.com. Only Ohio State’s and Tennessee’s stood better entering bowl season.
The Texas defensive line is the strongest piece of that defense, something of a surprise entering the season as the Longhorns replaced their interior. It has not faltered.
And Texas assuredly knows Arizona State goes as its star running back goes. The Longhorns will sell out in the tackle box to stymie Skattebo, and if Texas establishes much of a lead, the run-game dependence will doom the Sun Devils’ further.
Prop bet #2: Sam Leavitt Under 0.5 passing touchdowns
The price tag on this prop is what first drew a discerning eye. Arizona State’s Team Total is set at 18.5. The strong suggestion that the Sun Devils may not score more than two touchdowns should have set this prop’s payout lower than +170, especially given how run-game-dependent Arizona State is.
Texas has held opponents without a passing touchdown in 10 of 14 games this year. Think about that rate. It is rather absurd.
Michigan threw a garbage-time touchdown. Diego Pavia and Cade Klubnik both threw multiple touchdown passes against the Longhorns. And otherwise, only Kentucky managed a genuine passing score.
Sam Leavitt is not on the same level as Pavia and Klubnik. Garbage time in the Playoff may be taken more seriously than the regular season. At that point, the value here is undeniable.
Prop bet #3: Isaiah Bond anytime touchdown
Texas speedy receiver and Alabama transfer Isaiah Bond is expected to return in the Peach Bowl after an ankle injury bothered him much of the season. If they do not need to stress Bond, the Longhorns won’t, but there will be value to proving he is back healthy.
That value comes by strengthening Quinn Ewers’s confidence, by getting Bond back into the flow of the action and by putting some new concerns on tape for a potential Playoff semifinal opponent.
No preceding stats really apply to Bond, he has been battling this ankle injury for so long. But by not playing against Clemson, he has had three full weeks off. Even a wretched ankle sprain can make a lot of progress in three weeks of genuine rehab not set back by also working hard in practices.
Bond looked mobile in a portion of Monday practice open to media. If he is indeed approved to play at full speed, it will behoove Texas to highlight him.
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