The UCLA Bruins are home for the holidays tonight as they face the Boise State Broncos, the Mountain West champs, on familiar ground at SoFi Stadium in the LA Bowl.
Chip Kelly has yet to win a bowl game in six seasons with the Bruins but he'll look to get over the hump as a slight favorite this year in front of a home crowd.
The Broncos are no strangers to bowl season — this marks Boise State’s 26th straight year qualifying for a bowl. Looking at college football odds, the Bruins are 4.5-point favorites with the total sitting at 48.5.
Read on for my best bet and free college football picks for UCLA vs. Boise State on December 16.
UCLA vs Boise State best odds
UCLA vs Boise State picks and predictions
The UCLA Bruins will be severely shorthanded for this contest, as is nothing new for college programs come bowl season.
No loss stings more than that of star defensive end Laiatu Latu, who will skip the game to prepare for the NFL Draft after winning the Lombardi Award as the nation’s best defensive lineman. He racked up an incredible 21.5 TFL and 13 sacks this season as a game-wrecking force every week.
That’s just the tip of the iceberg. Other missing pieces include three impact players in the secondary, tight end Carsen Ryan, wide receiver Kam Brown, prized recruit Dante Moore, and offensive Swiss army knife Keegan Jones. Running back Carson Steele (team-leading 1,010 scrimmage yards, eight touchdowns) has been absent from practice and I’d consider him questionable at best.
The losses are significant on both sides of the ball. That leaves the Bruins without three of their Top 5-graded defensive players per PFF, including one of the sport’s most impactful players in Latu. If you watched any Bruins football this season, you’re well aware of how much he impacted games and dictated what opposing offenses could and could not do.
To make matters worse, defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn and quarterbacks coach Ryan Gunderson are also gone. Lynn led a remarkable turnaround that saw the Bruins finally field a respectable defense under Chip Kelly. Their scoring average improved by 10.9 ppg from a season ago (down from 29 to 18.1 ppg) and it’s to be determined if this defense continues living up to its season-long track record sans its terrific coordinator, its best player, and a handful of other key pieces.
That’s concerning since the offense has not held up its end of the bargain. The Bruins rank just 85th in EPA per play and 80th in success rate while mustering 25.8 ppg — the second-lowest average in Kelly’s career other than the 2018 rebuild (24.6 ppg).
On the flip side of things, the Boise State Broncos are expected to be closer to full strength other than a few notable caveats. Quarterback Taylen Green hit the portal and found a new home. Maddux Madsen, who rotated in for much of the year and averaged 9.0 yards per attempt, is out for the year with an MCL injury. That leaves the Broncos with a third-string quarterback — likely true freshman CJ Tiller.
Leading receiver Eric McAlister hit the portal after nine games while Stefan Cobbs, who ranks fourth on the team in receiving, hasn’t played since Week 10.
Andy Avalos was fired after a 5-5 start, but the team responded with a 3-0 finish and a Mountain West Championship under Spencer Danielson, who has since been hired as the full-time head coach.
I’m not quite as worried about Boise State’s current status as I am about UCLA’s. While playing with a third-string true freshman QB is obviously not ideal, the Broncos’ passing attack has been shorthanded for a while now and they still managed to win games thanks to a powerful rushing attack spearheaded by superstar Ashton Jeanty (1,814 scrimmage yards, 19 TDs) and an improved defense.
The team is undefeated under Danielson and I expect another motivated effort from his squad. I never ranked Avalos much and consider the coaching change to be a neutral move at worst.
The Bruins made hay thanks to a suffocating defense that’s especially stout up front, surrendering just 69.6 rushing yards per game while ranking second in EPA per rush. Will that success continue without Lynn and other key players? It might, but I wouldn’t be so sure, and the Broncos are good enough on the ground (seventh in EPA per rush, eighth in rushing success rate) to operate yet another ground-heavy offensive attack that limits what it asks of its quarterback.
Boise State’s offensive line has been terrific, ranking 10th in line yards and fifth in power success rate. Teams with a weak offensive line have been a fish out of water against UCLA this season, but that won’t be the case with Boise State.
Jeanty earned the highest rushing grade (93.9 per PFF) of any running back in the country with more than 100 carries and is more than capable of handling the brunt of the offensive workload along with fellow back Georgia Holani, who has 4,190 scrimmage yards and 32 touchdowns across his storied five-year career.
I’ll go ahead and buy back on Boise State plus the points. This team has been playing motivated football under Danielson while UCLA limped to the finish line with losses to Arizona State and Cal over the last three weeks of the season. Oh yeah, and those losses came before half the team hit the portal and lost its most impactful coach on the staff.
My best bet: Boise State +4.5 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
UCLA vs Boise State same-game parlay
Boise State +4
Ashton Jeanty 40+ receiving yards
FanDuel has Ashton Jeanty to score a touchdown at -150 and while that would be a nice SGP leg, I prefer the props available at DraftKings for his receiving yardage.
You can get Jeanty 40+ receiving yards at a juicy number of +285. That’s a price I can't let slide considering he should be an even bigger part of this offense now that the Broncos are down to their third-string true freshman quarterback.
Why not rely on the team’s best player, who you’re fortunate enough to have available for this matchup — no certain thing during bowl season nowadays!
With McAlister in the portal, Jeanty is this team’s leading receiver with 552 yards and five scores through the air. He’s topped 40 receiving yards six times this season and has been healthy for 10 games, so you’re getting tremendous value here and that’s too good for me to pass up.
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UCLA vs Boise State spread and Over/Under analysis
It’s been a tough end to the season for the Bruins, who covered just one of their final five games. The lone cover came as an underdog (+5 against USC, won outright) and they’ve now failed to cover four straight games as the favorite.
The Broncos are the complete opposite, surging to a 4-0 ATS finish across the last four games. I dove into why I’m on the underdog in my best bet section, so allow me to take a closer look at the total, which sits at 48.5 at most books.
UCLA has been a dead Under team this season at 2-10 O/U while Boise State has been prone to the Over at 8-4-1 O/U.
I’m inclined to believe that UCLA’s record is more meaningful as Kelly's offense has been stuck in the mud all year and keeps the clock moving with plenty of running plays while generally failing to score many points. With the defense playing as well as it has, that’s a terrific recipe for Unders.
Boise State’s defense has been prone to big passing plays (92nd in passing explosiveness) but that’s not a huge worry against Ethan Garbers and a struggling passing attack that ranks just 114th in EPA per pass.
Garbers could be under pressure a fair amount as well considering his offensive line has surrendered a whopping 42 sacks. Boise State ranks 17th nationally with 36 sacks led by junior defensive end Ahmed Hassanein (12.5 sacks).
It’s Under or nothing for this bettor between two ground-heavy offenses featuring suspect quarterback play.
UCLA vs Boise State betting trend to know
UCLA has not won a bowl game in 5+ years under Chip Kelly. They were 1-4 ATS across their final five games of the season. Find more college football betting trends for UCLA vs Boise State.
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UCLA vs Boise State game info
| Location: | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, December 16, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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