The UCLA Bruins look to keep their mid-season turnaround going as they head to the Pacific Northwest to face the Washington Huskies in Week 12.
Deshaun Foster’s squad has won three straight and is looking to reach bowl eligibility, while Jeff Fisch’s Huskies have faltered lately with three defeats in their last four games. Read on for my UCLA vs. Washington predictions and college football picks for Saturday, November 16.
UCLA vs Washington predictions
Early spread lean
UCLA +3.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The UCLA Bruins have been undervalued in the market lately, covering the spread in six of their last seven games. I’m going back to the well and will be betting on the Bruins remaining undervalued in Week 12, where they’re catching 3.5 points against a floundering Washington Huskies team.
Fisch’s club has wins over Michigan and USC, but other than that, there’s not many positive takeaways from the resume. A loss to Rutgers? A loss to rival Washington State despite being a 6-point favorite? Not coming close to covering the spread against Penn State, Indiana, or Iowa?
The Iowa loss is particularly concerning. The Hawkeyes blew out Washington 40-16, whereas UCLA just handled business with a 20-17 win over that very same team on Friday.
The Bruins have an extra day of rest before Week 12, whereas Washington is coming off an uninspiring 35-6 loss against a physical Penn State team. The reasons for UCLA’s recent improvement is fairly easy to see.
The offense was always going to take time to implement, as Eric Bienemy’s scheme is a difficult translation to the college game. The defense has been fine most of the year headlined by Jay Toia, who leads a tough defensive front.
The early season schedule was brutal (Indiana, LSU, Oregon, Penn State) and came at the worst time. It’s not too surprising the Bruins have improved as the schedule has softened a bit over the last few weeks, and they’re handling betting spreads with ease.
Washington is an opposite case in that it handled easy competition to start the year but hasn’t been up to par against the better teams it has faced in recent weeks. Washington and UCLA are of similar caliber, and I’ll bet on the ascending team playing with an extra day of rest and brimming with confidence.
Early Over/Under lean
Under 46.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Both teams have trended to the Under this season — Washington is 2-8 O/U and UCLA is 3-6 O/U. It’s supposed to be a rainy Saturday in Seattle, which leads me to believe another lower-scoring
contest is in play.
That’s been the norm for these teams, neither of whom wants to push the pace or get into a shootout. Both programs like to utilize a methodical approach, which helps drain the clock and
trend toward the Under.
UCLA's defense hasn’t been bad despite the offense providing little support for much of the year. It was beaten by Indiana (42 points) and Rutgers (32), but every other performance has been
inspiring. Washington hasn’t scored more than 27 points against any Power Conference opponent. I won't bet on that changing this week.
On the flip side, Washington has been elite against the pass (149.8 passing yards per game allowed) but beatable on the ground (162.3 rushing yards per game). That plays well into this matchup, as UCLA has been one of the worst rushing teams in the nation with 89.1 rushing yards per game on 3.2 yards per rush.
Garbers and the improved passing attack will be put to the test against a very stout Huskies secondary, especially with rain in the forecast. The Bruins are banged up at receiver as starting receivers Rico Flores and J. Michael Sturdivant and starting tight end Moliki Matavao missed the Iowa game.
The injuries don’t stop there, as starting offensive lineman Nicki Prongos left the game in the first quarter and starting running back TJ Harden was battling through an injury but still managed a great game (20 carries for 125 yards).
Neither team wants to get into a shootout, so I’ll take the Under on a rainy day with two methodical offenses.
UCLA vs Washington live odds
Not intended for use in MA.
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