Utah vs Northwestern Prediction: Las Vegas Bowl Odds and Picks

The Utah Utes were already struggling to end the year and now they have to deal with the loss of several players due to the transfer portal against Northwestern. With so many question marks, our college football picks believe this spread is too high.

Ed Scimia - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Ed Scimia • Betting Analyst
Dec 23, 2023 • 16:28 ET • 4 min read
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Two teams that have dealt with significant changes this season will face off this evening when the Utah Utes take on the Northwestern Wildcats in the Las Vegas Bowl.

Utah has seen many of its top players either enter the transfer portal or declare for the NFL Draft since the end of the regular season. Meanwhile, Northwestern rallied back from the loss of head coach Pat Fitzgerald to become bowl-eligible this year but still comes into Saturday’s game as a significant underdog in the college football odds.

If both teams were at full strength, the Utes would be the clear favorite here, but the loss of talent has made this matchup much closer according to bowl game odds. I’ll discuss which side has the edge in my free college football picks for Utah vs. Northwestern on December 23.

Utah vs Northwestern best odds

Utah vs Northwestern picks and predictions

Utah was less than impressive down the stretch this season, losing three of its last five and just getting by the Colorado Buffaloes 23-17 in the Pac-12 finale. Those struggles will only be magnified in the Las Vegas Bowl, where the Utes will be without several key contributors.

Defensive back Cole Bishop, offensive lineman Keaton Bills, and running back/safety Sione Vaki are all declaring for the NFL Draft and won’t play on Saturday. Backup quarterback Nate Johnson is out after heading into the transfer portal — as is receiver Mikey Matthews — and starting QB Bryson Barnes also plans to transfer, though he decided to stick around for this bowl game.

Barnes wasn’t great this year regardless, throwing for just 12 TDs and a 58.5% completion percentage while tossing nine interceptions. And without some key weapons, it’s hard to see him producing much through the air against Northwestern. The Utes can run the ball — but without Bills or Vaki — their production on the ground should suffer as well. 

If anything, Northwestern is on the rise as it comes into the Las Vegas Bowl. The Wildcats have won four of five games and covered in six straight contests to end their regular season. They’ve accomplished this by playing stifling defense, giving up just 20.3 points per game during that six-game stretch.

Utah’s makeshift offense will have its hands full with this Northwestern defense, which is holding opponents to just 5.3 yards per play. The biggest question for the Wildcats will be how they mount enough offense to win the game, as Utah has been a brick wall against opposing RBs, and that’s one area in which the Utes still have most of their talent intact.

That means it may be up to QB Ben Bryant to get the job done for Northwestern. Bryant is hardly a dynamic force, but he’s done enough to get the job done, tossing 11 TDs against six INTs on the year. He also has a slew of targets to go to, as eight different Wildcats have at least one touchdown reception this year.

I’m not sure Northwestern will win this game, but it'll certainly be in it. Even if Utah brought its team from the end of the regular season, I’m not sure how much better the Utes would be compared to the Wildcats based on what we saw in the second half of the year.

With so many new players having to fill in, there’s too much uncertainty to see Utah as a true favorite, let alone a significant one. I’m taking Northwestern and the points.

My best bet: Northwestern +6.5 (-110 at Caesars)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Utah vs Northwestern same-game parlay

Northwestern +6.5

Under 41.5

Ben Bryant Over 150 passing yards

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One reason why I think this line is too big is the fact that neither team seems set up to score a lot of points on Saturday. That means points will be at a premium, the game will likely be tightly played, and the Under feels good at 41.5 points.

Finally, I’m betting on Bryant to do enough to help Northwestern have every chance of winning the Las Vegas Bowl. That doesn’t mean he has to do a lot, but I’m willing to predict he’ll get Over the 150-yard mark on Saturday. Bryant has surpassed this number in four of his last five outings, and I like this lower, alternate number as a smart way to round out my SGP.

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Utah vs Northwestern spread and Over/Under analysis

Utah opened Saturday’s game as a full seven-point favorite. Bettors have taken that number under a touchdown, with the consensus spread now Utah -6.5. Northwestern is a slight favorite on that number at several books, meaning you can find -106 on the Utes if you shop around. 

Northwestern put up great numbers for gamblers this year, going 8-4 against the spread. Utah was also slightly above average against the number, with a 6-5-1 ATS record. 

The total for the Las Vegas Bowl opened at 42.5 points. That number has come down a bit, with most books now putting the Over/Under at 41.5 points instead. The consensus is to offer -110 on both sides of the market, though I have seen -105 on the Under at some books.

Neither of these teams has been dynamic on offense this year – especially down the stretch – and Utah’s losses will mostly impact it on the offensive end. Northwestern has relied on its defense all year, playing to a total of Under 41.5 in four of its last six games. This will be a defensive struggle, and I’m leaning towards the Under.

Utah vs Northwestern betting trend to know

Northwestern is 6-0 in its last six games overall. Find more college football betting trends for Utah vs Northwestern.

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Utah vs Northwestern game info

Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Date: Saturday, December 23, 2023
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: ABC

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Ed Scimia - Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Ed Scimia has been writing about the gaming industry for over 15 years. He graduated from Syracuse University with degrees in Magazine Journalism and Political Science in 2003, and has covered major gambling events like the World Series of Poker in his career. Since joining Covers in 2022, Ed has offered his sports betting analysis primarily on MLB, NFL, college football, and college basketball games, but is willing to take on any sport.

His betting strategy focuses more on finding line value based on deviations from the market rather than traditional handicapping, primarily shopping between DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics in his home state of Connecticut, though he’s not afraid to do deep game analysis to find profitable bets at any book.

Outside of gambling, Ed is an avid curler who competes in mixed doubles on the World Curling Tour and runs a popular curling YouTube channel, Chess on Ice. That experience has come in handy during the Olympics, when he has proven to be a successful curling bettor as well. 

Ed's advice to new bettors is to always open multiple sportsbook accounts and check the odds at each before placing any bet. Successful sports betting is about consistently beating the closing line value, which requires finding spots where one book is offering odds far better than the rest of the market and jumping on those opportunities.

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