UTSA vs Tulane Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Back Harris and the Roadrunners in NOLA

Call it the AAC Thunderdome on Friday when UTSA and Tulane square off in the college football odds — two teams will enter, but only one will leave with a spot in the conference championship game.

Both programs are tied with SMU at 7-0 atop the American Athletic Conference standings, so the loser of this contest is likely going to miss out on a shot to win the conference title. UTSA is riding a seven-game win streak, with six of those wins coming by at least 14 points. Its offense is efficient and has scored at least 34 points in seven straight.

For Tulane, the No. 23-ranked Green Wave have tasted defeat just once when they lost in Week 2 to Ole Miss. However, they’ve been fortunate to be unbeaten in the conference, with three of their last four wins coming by a combined seven points. 

Our college football picks and predictions for UTSA vs. Tulane will dive into the matchup and explain why one particular player is likely to have a big performance for his team.

UTSA vs Tulane best odds

UTSA vs Tulane picks and predictions

Tulane’s run defense is one of the better ones in college football, but its pass defense leaves much to be desired. That’s why I’m all over UTSA quarterback Frank Harris to top his passing total on Friday when he faces the Green Wave.

Harris punished USF’s defense a week ago, throwing for 411 yards and three scores while completing more than two-thirds of his 46 attempts. He added another 112 yards on the ground and three more touchdowns, leading his team to a 49-21 blowout victory.

When I previewed that game last week, I was big on the Roadrunners putting up points. However, I wasn’t sure if the ground game or the passing attack would be relied upon more given that USF struggled to stop either one this season.

That's not a question that has to be asked for this game. Tulane’s run defense is the best in the conference, and it ranks fifth in the nation, allowing less than three yards per carry. The unit also ranks Top 30 in EPA per run play and 17th in success rate against.

But when opponents take to the air, Tulane’s defense hasn’t been up to the task. And that’s bad news for a team facing a quarterback coming off a week where he shredded a similar pass defense.

USF is among the worst teams in college football in EPA per pass play against, and Tulane isn’t much better. The Green Wave rank just 86th in EPA per pass play, and their success rate against is in the 100s. This is a defense allowing the 14th-highest completion rate in college football, and it doesn’t force many turnovers.

For me, Harris' passing total of 250.5 yards is far too low, and I expect it to get a bit higher before kickoff. In fact, it jumped five yards just in the time of writing this preview.

UTSA already runs one of the most efficient and fast-paced offenses in college football, and the offense ranks 14th in third down success rate. Harris should get plenty of chances to throw the ball, and when you look at how similar quarterbacks of Harris’ quality have performed against Tulane, you’ll see a pattern.

Jaxson Dart threw for 267 yards on just 27 attempts, while Memphis QB Seth Henigan completed 24 attempts and topped 300 yards. And when the Green Wave faced North Texas, they conceded 343 yards on 35 of 51 passing to Chandler Rogers.

The latter two are in line with the volume I’m expecting to see from Harris on Friday, as the Roadrunners put it in the hands of their veteran leader with the conference title game in the balance. FanDuel is the only book offering his prop currently, so head over and get him at -114 before the line changes.

My best bet: Frank Harris Over 250.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

UTSA vs Tulane same-game parlay

Frank Harris Over 250.5 passing yards

Frank Harris Over 1.5 passing touchdowns

UTSA moneyline

+315 at FanDuel

Our same-game parlay at FanDuel continues banking not only on Harris to have a big day, but on that being enough to lead his team to victory.

Tulane’s allowed just nine rushing touchdowns this season, tied for the 16th-fewest in the country. The Green Wave have also allowed only 14 passing touchdowns — but those three quarterbacks we mentioned earlier combined for seven of them. All three had multiple touchdown passes against Tulane, and Harris should do the same.

As for the game outcome, I believe the wrong team is favored. UTSA is unbeaten since Harris returned from injury, and he is by far the better quarterback in this matchup. I’m not sure Michael Pratt can be trusted to outplay him, especially if he's missing multiple key playmakers.

I’ll take the Roadrunners outright.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

UTSA vs Tulane spread and Over/Under analysis

I’m backing UTSA to win the game, but I’m going against the public on this one. 70% of the Covers Consensus is on Tulane to cover the -3.5 spread, which has moved more than two points since opening at -1.5 at Caesars on Sunday.

Tulane’s only loss came against Ole Miss, but the Mean Green have been fortunate to win some games of late. UTSA is also very strong against the pass, which is where Tulane’s offensive strength lies.

Pratt has also been without wide receivers Lawrence Keys III and Jha’Quan Jackson for the past few games. While there’s a possibility that Jackson returns, it’s not going to be enough against a UTSA defense that ranks 28th in EPA per pass play. Tulane won’t be able to control the clock and get stops like it's accustomed to against UTSA’s efficient passing attack, and the Roadrunners will do enough to pull away late.

As for the total of 52 points, it’s come down slightly from where it opened. Tulane’s last three games have all gone below that mark, with two of them not even topping 30 points. 

This should change on Friday, as the Roadrunners are set to face one of the worst red zone defenses in college football. They also won’t be able to run the ball to try to see the game out, which means more passing in the second half.

The question is whether Tulane will be able to keep up and help push the total past the number. The first half total might be worth looking at instead. Four of UTSA’s last six games have gone Over in the opening half, while four of its last six have gone Under.

UTSA vs Tulane betting trend to know

The Under is 9-1 in Tulane’s last 10 games. Find more college football betting trends for UTSA vs Tulane.

UTSA vs Tulane game info

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