Sunday Night Football’s showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and Buffalo Bills was supposed to be a possible Super Bowl preview in Week 13.
Instead, San Francisco is fighting to stay in the playoff picture when it ventures to Orchard Park in prime time, and my early 49ers vs. Bills predictions expect the Niners to leave Buffalo with their tails between their legs on December 1.
49ers vs Bills predictions
Early spread lean
Buffalo Bills -7 (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
Injuries continue to cripple the San Francisco 49ers' postseason hopes, none bigger than quarterback Brock Purdy’s aching shoulder. Purdy sat out Week 12’s loss to Green Bay and is questionable for Sunday Night Football.
Purdy did throw on Monday, but the line movement on the spread isn’t encouraging if the market is any reflection of his Week 13 health. San Francisco opened as a 6-point road underdog, and that has been pushed through the key numbers to +7 as of this writing.
On top of Purdy’s unknown status, the 49ers have a laundry list of ailments on the offensive line as well as the defense. Those injuries are compounded by a schedule that squeezes San Francisco, which plays back-to-back road games and its third away tilt in four weeks.
Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills are refreshed and ready for the stretch run after enjoying a Week 12 bye. The Bills just earned a resume victory over Kansas City in Week 11 and extended their winning streak to six games.
Buffalo has scored 30 or more points in each of its last five outings and boasts the second-highest home margin of victory (+15.3) in the league. It faces a Niners defense slipping since Week 7, ranking 28th in opponent success rate allowed over the last five games.
Obviously, the status of Purdy and the 49ers’ starters need to be monitored, but given San Francisco’s free fall and the Bills' rest edge, I’d lean toward laying the touchdown with Buffalo on SNF.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 45 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
This Over/Under hit the board at 46 points and dwindled to 45 as of this writing. Again, that line movement isn’t a positive indicator of the health of Purdy and the 49ers’ offensive ailments.
Also playing into this dropping number is the forecast in Orchard Park. Sunday night could see snow flurries at Highmark Stadium, with some weather models calling for temperatures to “feel like” 12 degrees with wind gusts getting up to 20 mph.
San Francisco has put up a combined 27 points the past two weeks and faces a Bills defense great at generating pressure with just the front four. Buffalo is Top 10 in EPA allowed per pay and very stingy against the run, sitting seventh in run-stop win rate at ESPN and No. 9 in opponent success rate per handoff.
That could make for a long night for San Francisco RB Christian McCaffrey, especially if o-line injuries eat in the run-blocking schemes for the Niners. McCaffrey is having a tough time picking up gains on the ground but is a viable pass-catching option.
The Bills’ offense is expecting to have pieces back in the receiving corps, with WR Keon Coleman and TE Dalton Kincaid trending toward a Week 13 return.
Buffalo is a Top 3 passing attack and has no qualms about running up the score. If this game is going to play Over the total, the Bills will do the lion’s share of the scoring.
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49ers vs Bills live odds
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