Philadelphia Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni went straight to the “Rocky” comparisons when asked about his team as an NFL odds underdog versus the San Francisco 49ers in Week 13.
That’s just lazy, Nick.
If anything, Philadelphia should feel like Maximus Decimus Meridius, better known as Russell Crowe’s lead character from the 2000 Best Picture winner, “Gladiator”.
After running through the likes of Miami, Dallas, Kansas City, and Buffalo during the team’s five-game winning streak, the Eagles still can’t earn the respect of the betting markets.
“Are you not entertained?!”
NFL bettors should be when Week 13 odds rekindle this rivalry in a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship Game.
I dissect the point spread and Over/Under total for this battle of NFC gladiators and give my free NFL picks and predictions for 49ers at Eagles on Sunday, December 3.
49ers vs Eagles odds
49ers vs Eagles predictions
Ask a 49ers fan about last season’s NFC Championship loss to the Eagles and they’ll say the 31-7 smackdown should come with an asterisk.
San Francisco played the majority of the game without a proper/healthy QB after “Cinderella Man” Brock Purdy blew his arm out eight minutes into the first quarter and backup Josh Johnson left in the third quarter with a concussion.
Purdy has picked up where he left off on that fateful day in Philly, putting together a sound 2023 campaign that had the second-year QB in the NFL MVP odds conversation earlier in the season.
The hype around “Mr. Irrelevant” has cooled in recent weeks, but Purdy has continued to captain Kyle Shanahan’s offense with efficiency. He’s averaging 261 passing yards and went for totals of 296, 333, and 365 in the three games prior to last week’s Thanksgiving Day win at Seattle.
Purdy finished the 31-13 win completing just 21 of 30 attempts for 209 yards with one touchdown and an interceptions. It leaned into a home/away trend for the 49ers quarterback, who has been stellar in the Bay Area, but sees a significant downtick in opposing venues.
Inside Levi's Stadium, Purdy boasts a 132.6 passer rating while averaging 11.2 yards per attempt and completing better than 76% of his throws. He’s thrown 11 touchdowns to just two INTs in home stands.
On the road, however, Purdy’s passer rating slides to 95.6 while his average yards per attempt drops to 8.0 on a completion rate of just 65.3%. He’s thrown eight TDs in away games while getting picked off four times.
Purdy and the 49ers not only play their second straight road game in Week 13, but take on one of the most disruptive defenses in the NFL. Philadelphia’s pass rush ranks in the Top 10 in terms of pressure rate and QB hurries, adding up to 32 sacks and 44 QB hits.
Eagles defensive coordinator Sean Desai not only has all the scouting prep on Purdy from the Eagles’ NFC title game tilt last season, but he was a member of Seattle’s staff in 2022 and faced a Purdy-led 49ers offense twice.
"He's slippery. He's a little bit quick and can be evasive in the pocket," Desai told reporters when asked about Purdy. "And he keeps his eyes up field and is able to target some explosives downfield that way too. We will have to have a good plan corralling him and getting tight to some of these routes so we can contest some of the throws that they throw."
Brock Purdy odds for Week 13's passing total are all over the place, with a market low of 252.5 yards and a high of 262.5 Over/Under. His player projections paint a similar split, with some models calling for highs of 270 yards and others pegging Purdy’s passing production just over 200 yards.
However, most models do come out lower than any of those varying Over/Under odds, with my number parked at 233.5 yards from the 49ers quarterback.
Not only do I see Purdy continue his struggles on the road, but given how well the Eagles can run the football — versus a soft 49ers run stop unit — and dominate possession, he may not get the touches needed to go Over this passing prop.
On top of that, the weather in Philadelphia could also impact Purdy’s production. The forecast is calling for steady rain throughout Sunday’s game, with temperatures dipping into the mid-40s in the second half.
As highlighted by Matt Barrows of The Athletic, Purdy’s worst games in terms of completion percentage came in the rain: 18-for-30 in the Wild Card Round vs. Seattle last season and 12-for-27 in the loss at Cleveland in Week 6.
My best bet: Brock Purdy Under 262.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
49ers vs Eagles same-game parlay
Brock Purdy Under 262.5 passing yards
Jalen Hurts Over 41.5 rushing yards
Jalen Hurts anytime TD
Purdy averages only 221 yards passing per road game and now faces a ferocious Philly defense in the rain.
Jalen Hurts’ knee is healthier and he’s returning to his role of a featured runner in the Eagles playbook. He’ll face plenty of pressure from the 49ers, which leads to more QB keepers.
The “Brotherly Shove” is unstoppable on the goal line, with Hurts scoring five touchdowns the past three games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Best NFL bonuses
All Users
Bet $20 in NFL same-game parlays
Get $10 in bonus bets! Claim Now
All Users
50% boost for 3+ leg parlay/SGP
e.g. +400 BOOSTS to +520! Claim Now
All Users
50% boost 4+ leg parlay/SGP
e.g. +300 BOOSTS to +450! Claim Now
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
49ers vs Eagles spread and Over/Under analysis
Sportsbooks varied on the opening spread for this heavyweight bout, with the line as tight as pick’em last Sunday evening following the Eagles’ insane overtime win over Buffalo.
However, the early money swung the spread to the Niners, with pros playing the visitor below the key number of a field goal. The spread jumped to San Francisco -1 and then -2.5, eventually hitting the field goal mark at a number of books.
Depending on which side you like, you can shop around for 49ers -2.5 or pay a little extra to play Philadelphia at +3. As of Thursday afternoon, Covers Consensus is showing a slight lean to the Eagles, with 52% of picks playing the home side.
Given Philly’s five-game winning streak and the top-tier teams its taken down during this stretch, you would think the betting market would hold the Eagles in higher regard. However, the 49ers come into Week 13 on a 10-day mini bye after beating up on Seattle last Thursday.
There’s also a narrative that the Niners are extra motivated to avenge last year’s playoff loss to the Eagles, in which San Francisco lost Purdy and Johnson to injuries, played most of the game without a proper passer, and got drubbed.
Truth be told, I don’t put any added weight in that “revenge” storyline, considering every team should be motivated to win a game that could dictate home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs.
What we’re seeing is significant split in terms of sharp and public play, with early money from pros grabbing San Francisco as low as they could and the betting public buying back the Eagles at the inflated spread. That’s not to say the 49ers won’t see their share of support come Sunday.
The total for this massive matchup opened at 45.5 points and has ticked up to 47.5 as of Thursday. Covers Consensus shows 63% of picks backing a higher-scoring finish to this 4:25 p.m. ET contest.
There’s a ton of firepower on the field — both sides are loaded with playmakers. However, we also have two of the more disruptive defensive units in the land in the mix, with Philadelphia and San Francisco sitting Top 10 in pressure rate.
The forecast for Philadelphia is calling for light rain throughout Sunday’s contest, with wind gusts topping out at 16 mph in the first half and calming in the final two frames. Game-time temperatures will feel like 50 degrees, slipping to the mid-40s in the second half.
49ers vs Eagles betting trend to know
Philadelphia is 11-19-1 Over/Under versus second-half totals the past two seasons. Find more NFL betting trends for 49ers vs. Eagles.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
49ers vs Eagles game info
| Location: | Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Sunday, December 3, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Opening odds: | Eagles -1.5, 45.5 O/U |
49ers vs Eagles latest injuries
49ers vs Eagles weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the 
to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.
R
