Two of the premier franchises in the history of the NFL take the gridiron Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field when the San Francisco 49ers take on the Green Bay Packers.
Both teams are down several key players, chief among them being 49ers QB Brock Purdy. That’s why my 49ers vs. Packers player props and NFL picks for Sunday, November 24, expect a big workload for both star running backs.
49ers vs Packers props
- Christian McCaffrey Over 17.5 rush attempts (+100 at BetMGM)
- Josh Jacobs Over 73.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
- Jordan Love Over 0.5 interceptions (-128 at BetMGM)
Read full analysis of each pick.
49ers vs Packers props
Prop bet #1: Christian McCaffrey Over 17.5 rush attempts
Kyle Shanahan’s team has been dealing with far more than a Super Bowl hangover this season as the injuries continue to pile up. While Christian McCaffrey is finally healthy, the team is now down Purdy for Sunday’s game.
Without his franchise QB, Shanahan will likely need to lean heavily on McCaffrey with Brandon Allen under center. Obviously, San Francisco would have preferred to bring CMC along slowly, but two games in, and that hasn’t been the case.
He’s averaging 21 touches per game in two starts and just carried the rock 19 times against the Seattle Seahawks. He should be in for another outing of 18-plus carries with Purdy out and this Packers' defense being worse against the run than the pass.
Green Bay is 10th in EPA per play on defense but just 14th in EPA per rush this season. They’re allowing 119.6 rushing yards per game, and opponents are averaging 27.4 carries against them.
Injuries are also going to impact Jeff Hafley’s defense, with cornerback Jaire Alexander and linebacker Edgerrin Cooper out. Cooper’s absence could especially play a role in CMC seeing more carries - the rookie is third on the team in run stops (9), per PFF.
So, no Purdy, a Packers defense that’s worse against the run, and Green Bay being down a key run-stopper should mean CMC sees carries like he did last season. The Stanford product had 10 games (including playoffs) of Over 17.5 carries last season.
These even-money odds are too good to pass up, with all the factors pointing to McCaffrey getting plenty of touches.
Prop bet #2: Josh Jacobs Over 73.5 rushing yards
McCaffrey isn’t the only running back poised for a big performance in this one. Josh Jacobs has been one of the best free agent signings of the year and has helped Green Bay stay afloat despite some sketchy play from Jordan Love.
On top of Jacobs being on a heater, the 49ers are without Nick Bosa, which should only help Green Bay’s star back run wild - Bosa is third on the team in run stops (11).
Jacobs has already topped 73.5 rushing yards six times this season, including in four straight games. He’s third in the league in rushing (838), behind only the two Offensive Player of the Year favorites (Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley).
With Jacobs averaging 83.8 rushing yards per game, he should stay on pace against a San Francisco defense that’s been surprisingly inconsistent stopping the run this season. The 49ers are 21st in EPA per rush on defense and they haven’t played a running back as productive as Jacobs this season.
The former first-round pick out of Alabama is second in the NFL in rushing yards after contact (640), fifth in rushing yards after contact per attempts (3.64), seventh in missed tackled forced (34), and fourth in 10-plus-yard runs (22).
Plus, with Purdy out and Allen starting, this game likely won’t be a 49ers blowout that forces the Packers to throw more. I expect at least 18 carries for Jacobs.
Prop bet #3: Jordan Love Over 0.5 interceptions
Last season, Jordan Love was drawing comparisons to Aaron Rodgers for his effortless deep balls and ability to make plays out of structure. This season, it’s a lot more like Brett Favre at his gun-slinging peak.
On one play, Love will make a jaw-dropping throw; on the next, it’s a boneheaded interception. That’s why he’s tied for the lead in interceptions this season (11) and has thrown at least one in all eight games he’s played this year.
So, while these odds are short, they’re a pretty good bet. They imply just a 56.18% probability he’ll throw an INT - and pay a $7.81 profit on a $10 winning bet - even though Love has thrown a pick in 100% of his games.
The 49ers also deploy a better pass defense than run defense. They sit 11th in EPA per dropback on defense and are seventh in the league in interceptions (11) while allowing the sixth-lowest QB rating in the league (79.5).
Love has the eighth-highest turnover-worthy throw percentage of quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks this season (3.7%). So, expect the 49ers to have a few opportunities to pick off a pass and cash this prop.
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