The Buffalo Bills are taking on the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium, meaning we get to dive into the Aaron Rodgers odds. A game against an AFC East rival gives Rodgers & Co. the perfect chance to change the direction of their season.
I’ve taken a long look at his NFL player props in my Bills vs. Jets predictions below.
Aaron Rodgers MNF player prop picks
- Best bet
Over 217.5 passing yards
(-113 at FanDuel) - SGP Pick
Over 217.5 passing yards
Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Wilson anytime touchdown
(+412 at FanDuel)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Aaron Rodgers MNF prop pick
My best bet
Over 217.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Realistically, Aaron Rodgers isn’t the player he once was, but a change in playcalling can really move the needle for this offense, which looked woeful with Nathaniel Hackett in charge.
This game is a very hard challenge, though, with the Buffalo Bills looking like one of the better defenses in the NFL. They are middling against the run and ranked 13th against the pass, allowing just 198.4 passing yards per game.
That line of 198.4 is below Rodgers’ total of 217.5, but you’d have to think that he has a good chance of surpassing it. He’s gone Over this number in three straight games and has thrown for 281, 225, and 244 yards, respectively.
The Bills are favorites here, which might lead to the New York Jets playing from behind, an eventuality that would only further increase the chances of the team relying on Aaron's arm. We don’t know exactly what the playcalling will look like but that might just mean leaning on Rodgers more.
This is a competitor who's spent a career looking to prove doubters wrong, and he should be primed for a good performance on Monday Night Football.
Aaron Rodgers MNF same-game parlay
Aaron Rodgers Over 217.5 passing yards
Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Garrett Wilson anytime touchdown
In addition to our best bet, we’re also going to back the QB to go Over 1.5 passing touchdowns. It’s something that we’ve seen happen in three of five games this season, including last week in London against the Vikings.
A good game for Rodgers most likely means a good game for Garrett Wilson, and we’ll back the second-year wideout to find the endzone. He found the endzone last week for only the second time this season but what was clear is that he's the guy that Rodgers looks for and trusts.
He’d previously had 11, six, nine, and eight targets in the opening month of the season, but last week, when the chips were really down, he was targeted 23 times. Rodgers will look for him, and that makes him the most likely Jet to catch a touchdown pass.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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