There’s a chance the two NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year leaders will face off Sunday when the Chicago Bears take on the Washington Commanders.
Jayden Daniels is a game-time decision, but I expect Caleb Williams to steal the show regardless of whether the Commanders’ star takes the field in my Bears vs. Commanders NFL player props picks for Sunday, October 27.
Make sure to also check out our full Bears vs. Commanders predictions.
Bears vs Commanders props
- Williams Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100 at BetMGM)
- Kmet Over 3.5 receptions (-105 at BetMGM)
- Ekeler Over 45.5 rushing + receiving yards ( -115 at BetMGM)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Bears vs Commanders props
Prop bet #1: Caleb Williams Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Let's kick off my NFL picks with a bang.
After a slow start to his rookie season, Caleb Williams is now fitting the bill as the Bears’ savior at quarterback.
The No. 1 pick has thrown six touchdowns in his last two games, throwing at least two in three of his last four outings. That comes after going touchdown-less in the opening two outings of his career.
He was just 31st in EPA per play among QBs in those first two weeks of the season — ahead of only Bryce Young.
Williams is seventh in EPA per play since Week 3, putting him just behind QBs like Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow and ahead of Baker Mayfield. Those three combined to throw eight TDs against this Commanders’ defense.
Washington has been carried by its offense for much of the season, with Dan Quinn’s defense being one of the worst in the NFL against the pass. It’s 26th in EPA per dropback and has given up the sixth-most TD passes in the NFL (12).
With Williams being surrounded by a loaded WR group led by DJ Moore, he should be able to connect for at least two scores against Washington.
The Commanders’ starting cornerback trio of Mike Sainristil, Benjamin St-Juste, and Noah Igbinoghene has been one of the worst in the league. Each has allowed at least two tuddies this season, and all three are giving up a QB rating of 104.5+ when targeted.
Prop bet #2: Cole Kmet Over 3.5 receptions
One of Williams’ talented pass catchers who should make some noise against Washington is Cole Kmet.
The Bears’ tight end has caught four-plus passes in three of his last five games to give him 26 receptions on the season, the seventh-most among TEs.
Kmet has quickly solidified himself as Williams’ safety blanket, and he trails only Moore in receptions while leading the Bears in success rate per reception (75.9%). He ranks seventh in the NFL in reception rate among tight ends (89.7%).
Williams clearly trusts Kmet, and his uptick in production coincides with his rookie QBs improved play. In Williams' first two starts he made zero big-time throws while racking up five turnover-worthy plays, per PFF. Kmet caught just five passes in those games.
In Williams’ last four games, he has seven big-time throws and just four turnover-worthy plays. Kmet has caught 21 passes in those games while averaging 5.2 receptions per game.
With the Commanders’ coverage struggles and the Bears’ trio of talented wide receivers, I expect Quinn to focus on stopping Moore, Rome Odunze, and Keenan Allen. That should open things up for the TE1
And for as talented as those receivers are, it’s Kmet who leads the team in yards per route run (1.84), first-down receptions (15), and QB rating when targeted (128.3).
Washington is allowing an average of four receptions per game to tight ends, too.
Prop bet #3: Austin Ekeler Over 45.5 rushing + receiving yards
Regardless of if Daniels takes the field, Austin Ekeler should be in for a steady workload. He’s been consistently featured in Kliff Kingsbury’s offense this season and has cruised past this line in five of six games.
The only game Ekeler finished with fewer than 45.5 combined rushing and receiving yards was last week against the Carolina Panthers. That was a 40-7 blowout win where it was clear Washington opted not to risk getting him banged up.
He played just 28 snaps and finished with six touches after playing 44 the week before and having 13 touches.
In his five games prior to last week, Ekeler averaged 73 yards from scrimmage on 8.6 touches per game. And while Brian Robinson Jr. is healthy, he’s been a non-factor in the passing game this season (eight receptions for 68 yards).
It’s clear Kingsbury wants to use Ekeler as his pass-catching back, and that will come in handy against a Bears defense that's No. 1 in the NFL in EPA per dropback.
That should mean more layup completions to Ekeler out of the backfield. He’s also been one of the most productive receivers for Washington in general, ranking second on the team in yards per route run (2.21) and first in YAC per reception (13.6).
Look for Ekeler to be a big piece of this offense on Sunday.
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