The Cincinnati Bengals are set to face off against the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday Night Football. With an explosive attack and a terrible defense, the Bengals have been in shootouts, and my NFL picks are backing offensive players on both sides to have big games.
See why I'm betting on both quarterbacks and running back Gus Edwards with my favorite NFL player props for our Bengals vs. Chargers predictions on November 17.
Bengals vs Chargers SNF props
Burrow o266.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
Herbert o237.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)- Edwards o30.5 rushing yards (-120 at bet365)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Bengals vs Chargers SNF props
Prop bet #1: Joe Burrow Over 266.5 passing yards
At first glance, this looks like a tough matchup for Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow. After all, the Los Angeles Chargers rank second in the NFL in defensive dropback EPA while allowing just 191.6 passing yards per game.
However, they've benefitted from playing against a laundry list of terrible quarterbacks — including Will Levis, Spencer Rattler, and Bryce Young. Kyler Murray and Patrick Mahomes are the only QBs they've faced who rank in the top half of the league in EPA+CPOE, and Murray averages just 205.8 passing yards per game while Mahomes has been limited by an injury-plagued WR corps.
On the other hand, Burrow is averaging 281.3 passing yards per game over the last eight contests and will have No. 2 wide receiver Tee Higgins back on the field after a three-week absence.
The Bengals pivot boasts the fifth-highest yards per attempt (8.4) in the league against split-safety shells and the Chargers use that formation on 58.1% of dropbacks — the second-highest rate in the NFL. The Bolts are also second-last in the league in pressure rate and Burrow has a history of lighting up secondaries when he has time in the pocket.
Prop bet #2: Justin Herbert Over 237.5 passing yards
The Chargers were throwing the ball at the lowest rate in the NFL at the start of the season. However, they've opened up the playbook in recent weeks and their young wide receivers have shown improvement.
Although Justin Herbert threw for just 164 yards last week, that was largely due to the game script. Prior to that start, the Chargers QB had thrown for more than 275 yards in each of his previous three games while averaging 9.3 yards per attempt over that span.
Herbert is now set to face a Bengals stop unit that is 26th in the league in defensive dropback EPA and is coming off surrendering 290 passing yards against Lamar Jackson.
Prop bet #3: Gus Edwards Over 30.5 rushing yards
Gus Edwards returned from a four-game stint on the injury list to rush for 55 yards on 10 carries last week.
The Chargers running back could have an even bigger role in his second game back, as the Bengals sit 28th in the league in defensive rush EPA while ranking 31st in defensive rush success rate.
They've been especially pushed around at the line of scrimmage, which has led to them ranking second-last in the NFL in run-stop win rate. That should result in J.K. Dobbins seeing fewer touches and the Chargers turning to the 238-pound sledgehammer more often.
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