Bengals vs Chiefs Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 17: Browning Goes Toe-to-Toe with Mahomes

While it's not the same quarterback matchup as last year’s AFC Championship game, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs can't take Jake Browning and the Cincinnati Bengals lightly in tonight's Week 17 as a touchdown home favorite, especially after that Christmas performance.

Coming in as a heavy dog after being favored in three straight weeks, the potential game script might not be priced in well enough on Sunday for Jake Browning’s markets, especially when it comes to NFL odds on his pass attempts.

I break down the Week 17 odds and offer my free NFL picks for Bengals vs. Chiefs on December 31. 

Bengals vs Chiefs odds

Bengals vs Chiefs predictions

In a season of the backup quarterback, Jake Browning has emerged as one of the best. He is completing 75% of his passes, ranks fifth in CPOE, and is completing 67% of his passes on third down.

Browning has been favored in three straight games and threw at least 37 passes in two of those games. In his last game as a dog — a 10-point underdog vs. Jacksonville four weeks ago — he went 32 for 37.

The Cincinnati Bengals QB doesn’t need garbage time to top this number, but that is certainly in the range of outcomes. Browning boasts an elite completion rate, with six or more targets at his disposal, including a pair of reliable running backs, four dependable receivers, and a group of tight ends with solid catching abilities.

The signal-caller might also get Ja’Marr Chase back, which would further increase this number. While Chase was a DNP at practice early in the week, he was on the sidelines working out with trainers. 

The Kansas City Chiefs didn’t have to see many passes last week on defense, but plenty of other big-dog QBs have touched the 31-plus mark, including Bailey Zappe (31) at +10.5, Jordan Love (36) at +6, and Aidan O’Connell (33) at +9.5 over the last five weeks. Kansas City starting corner L’Jarius Sneed is also dealing with a calf injury and backup corner Jaylen Watson missed practice early in the week with an illness. 

Browning has shown he can hit 32 pass attempts in multiple game scripts thanks to his elite completion percentage and abundance of stable pass catchers. THE BLITZ is calling this one the best +EV plays of the games with a projection of 36.1, and I'd play this to 32.5.

My best bet: Jake Browning Over 31.5 pass attempts (-128 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Bengals vs Chiefs same-game parlay

Browning Over 7.5 rushing yards

Rice Over 64.5 receiving yards

Watson Over 24.5 receiving yards

+547 at FanDuel

You can't add pass attempts to FanDuel's SGPs but Browning's rushing prop projects just as well with THE BLITZ expecting 16.03 yards on the ground for a QB who has shown flashes of big rushing plays. The KC offense is running out of bodies and Rashee Rice will be busy vs. a poor Cincinnati secondary. Justin Watson has also emerged as the No.3 in the passing game. Rice had 12 targets last week and Watson was more productive again as the No.3 posting 50-plus yards compared to MVS who had one target and is more of a decoy to stretch the field. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Bengals vs Chiefs spread and Over/Under analysis

The look-ahead line was set at KC -3.5 but the shift from Joe Burrow to Browning, coupled with the potential absence of Chase and a minor downgrade to the Chiefs' offense overall, resulted in an adjusted look-ahead line of KC -7.5.

That number has hit a flat 7 as the Bengals are getting some money from the public. Cincinnati just blew its three-game winning streak last week with a 34-11 loss to Mason Rudolph and the Steelers, where the Bengals went into the locker room at halftime down 24-0. 

Despite that poor showing, it wasn’t as bad as the Chiefs losing to a Raiders team that didn’t complete a pass in the second half. While KC can wrap up the division on Sunday with a win or a tie, I’m not trusting an offense that could be without Isiah Pacheco (concussion), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (illness), and Jerick McKinnon (IR). 

The Chiefs are just 1-3 straight up in their last four games, and Patrick Mahomes owns a less-than-desirable 5/5 TD/INT ratio over that stretch.

Vegas got lots of pressure on Mahomes last week and Trey Hendrickson and the Bengals pass rush could do the same as starting tackle Donovan Smith has missed three straight games and is in danger of missing a fourth. The Chiefs have managed just 58 points in those three games without Smith, and their 3.3 yards per carry over that time is also one of the worst marks in football.   

The total has bounced around 44 and 45 as both teams play slowly and sit in the Bottom 10 of the league in terms of pace of play. The Chiefs have also been overvalued in terms of their totals as they enter Sunday 5-10 to the Over, with a second-half offense that is averaging just 7.5 points.

Bengals vs Chiefs betting trend to know

The Chiefs have only hit the 2H Over in four of their last 20 games (-13.85 Units / -62% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Bengals vs. Chiefs.

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