Bills vs Chargers Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 16: Low-Hanging Fruit

The Buffalo Bills are on the West Coast this weekend and get a stand-alone prime-time game tonight vs. the clean-house Los Angeles Chargers who will feature new head coach Giff Smith and rely on quarterback Easton Stick as a double-digit dog. 

With plenty of movement of both the side and total and coming off an embarrassing prime-time loss that got their coach canned, should bettors expect a different Chargers team than the one in Week 15?

I break down the NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Bills vs. Chargers on December 23.

Be sure to also check out our three favorite Bills vs Chargers prop picks and our Josh Allen spotlight!

Bills vs Chargers odds

Bills vs Chargers predictions

Professional bettors pounced on an over-inflated Buffalo Bills line this week after the line moved from a look-ahead number of -10 to as long as -14 after the events of Week 15. That line has moved back down to 10.5 as of Tuesday but it’s the total that has me looking at my best bet.

The Over has seen some early money but the move from 41 to 43.5 might be a little much in this spot for multiple reasons. 

The Los Angeles Chargers are coming off an embarrassing loss 63-21 loss in prime time which subsequently got their head coach and general manager canned. There should be some pushback from this defense at home with the extra rest and getting a defensive-minded interim head coach in Giff Smith might spark a better defensive performance. 

It’s a defense that has to slow down a Buffalo offense that is committed to running since both of its tight ends are healthy. Since the return of Dawson Knox, the Bills have gone from 3-WR sets at 75% to as low as 35% last week. They are running the ball and are one of the slowest pace-of-play teams in football which might surprise some. 

On the season and in a neutral context, the Bills rank 26th in pace of play and that number gets ever longer in overall pace of play at 29.55 seconds per play which ranks 30th. New OC Joe Brady is getting three running backs involved and Buffalo could continue to eat the clock and run the ball which would help this Under. 

It’s also not a great spot for this L.A. offense that will be led by Easton Stick this week. The backup had decent numbers last week vs. the Raiders with 257 yards on 23 of 32 passing, but there was a lot of garbage time mixed in there. 

This Buffalo defense just held one of the best offenses to to Under 200 yards last week and 3.4 yards per play. It also faces Austin Ekeler who has not been himself (injury?) this year and an offense that may be without Keenan Allen who is dealing with a heel injury.

It should be noted, that Allen did break the franchise record with his 108th catch of the season back in Week 14 and will enter the last year of his contract in 2024. There isn’t a need to rush back on Saturday. 

I don’t love betting Unders in indoor games, but thanks to the heavy Over movement since opening, I’m comfortable with this number. There could be some movement to 44, but if Allen is out, it’s tough to see this close higher than 43.5. 

My best bet: Under 43.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Bills vs Chargers same-game parlay

Under 43.5

Josh Allen Under 31.5 rushing yards

Austin Ekeler Under 30.5 receiving yards

+448 at FanDuel

Allen doesn't have to put himself in harm's way with the emergence of the new Buffalo rushing game. This is a low-volume pass game for him as a big favorite which will decrease pass plays and in turn, scramble opportunities which are the biggest factor for QB rush yards.

Austin Ekeler is losing snaps to Josh Kelley and Isaiah Spiller who are also working in the passing game. He doesn't look 100% healthy and most books have moved this line to 27.5. THE BLITZ is projecting 24 yards for Ekeler. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Bills vs Chargers spread and Over/Under analysis

Professional bettors were just waiting for the books to overvalue the Bills and undervalue the Chargers at the re-open and once this number touched 13.5 (and 14 in some spots), one-way Chargers money poured in.

It was a high point for the Bills coming off a dominating performance vs. the Cowboys on Sunday and winning their third in four games. On the other hand, the Chargers were coming off a no-show on Thursday and had a mid-week coach change. It was a perfect storm that favored the Chargers which is why this number has fallen a full field goal from Monday to Tuesday. 

The Chargers will move on with former outside linebacker coach Giff Smith as the Interim HC and have been on the West Coast since the beginning of the month and enter with the rest advantage. 

It’s still an offense that will be led by Easton Stick and might not have Keenan Allen, but being embarrassed can be one hell of a motivating factor. The coach bump is also in play here and names like Antonio Pierce, Jeff Saturday, and Rich Bisaccia are names that come to mind in terms of mid-season coaching changes that saw bad teams play better under new leadership.

Looking at injuries, Buffalo had DT Jordan Phillips exit last week and not return. His loss could be beneficial for an L.A. team that can’t get its run game going of late. Safety Micah Hyde is still dealing with a stinger and is also questionable heading into the weekend. Backup Taylor Rapp played well in his absence last week with eight total tackles. 

The Chargers had two starters exit last week in corner Essang Basset and C/G Will Clapp. Starting corner Deane Leonard was inactive last week and is questionable for Week 16. 

Bills vs Chargers betting notes:

• Since the return of Knox, the Bills have gone from 3-WR sets at 75% to a low of last week of 35%. This means a higher run rate and fewer targets to go around. Gabe Davis, Trent Sherfield, and Khalil Shakir combined for just two targets on 28 total routes last week.
  
  
• BUF RB Ty Johnson is carving himself a role in this Buffalo offense and has 23 carries for over 100 yards since Joe Brady took over as OC. He left Week 15 but did return. 
  
  
• Quentin Johnson and Josh Palmer were the only WRs with a route share above 51% last week. Jalen Guyton and Alex Erickson mixed in with at least 49% route share while the offense used 11-personnel at 76%.
  
  
• Isaiah Spiller looks to be the No.2 back in this LAC backfield as he had a better snap share than Josh Kelley last week who also lost a fumble early.

Bills vs Chargers betting trend to know

The Chargers have only hit the full-game Over in eight of their last 21 games (-5.20 units / -23% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Chargers.

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