The Denver Broncos will look to maintain their tenuous hold on a playoff spot as they visit the surging Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday afternoon.
Cincinnati has won three in a row to remain on the fringes of the AFC playoff picture but will have a tough time keeping that momentum going this weekend, as I’ll discuss in my Broncos vs. Bengals predictions below.
I’ll dig into where bettors should be putting their money early in the week in my free NFL picks for Saturday, December 28.
Broncos vs Bengals predictions
Early spread lean
Broncos +3 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Cincinnati Bengals were left for dead at 4-8 after their Week 13 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. But Joe Burrow and company have rallied for three straight wins to stay just on the edge of the playoff race, with the NFL giving them a 7% chance of reaching the offseason.
The three-game winning streak shouldn’t be dismissed, as we’ve always known that Cincinnati has enough talent to compete. But, notably, those wins came against three teams already eliminated from playoff contention: the Dallas Cowboys, the Tennessee Titans, and the Cleveland Browns.
The Denver Broncos represent a significant step up in competition from that group. Denver had been riding its own four-game winning streak before last week when the Los Angeles Chargers managed to hold it off by a 34-27 final. Before that game, the Broncos had won the previous four by nine or more points, and haven’t lost to a team that isn’t a likely playoff contender outside of a Week 1 loss against the Seattle Seahawks, who remain on the fringes of the NFC race.
Denver has covered in seven of its last nine games, thanks in large part to an outstanding defense. The Broncos are allowing just 18.7 ppg, and have a tremendous pass rush, averaging 3.4 sacks per game. Opponents are averaging just 6.1 yards per pass attempt against Denver, which is the kind of stinginess that will be critical when facing off against Burrow.
Meanwhile, Cincinnati is mostly getting by on its offense only, a six-point effort by the defense against the Cleveland Browns last week aside. The Bengals are allowing 359.9 yards and 26.2 points per game, both among the worst figures in the NFL.
Cincinnati has gotten away with that against lesser opponents, but Denver will take advantage – all while doing enough to keep Burrow and company in check. My early spread lean is on the Broncos, and I’d also be interested in taking Denver on the moneyline as long as they remain the underdog.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 49.5 (-120 at BetMGM)
My analysis
I raised the Denver defense earlier, but the Broncos are quite capable of putting up points as well. Over the last five weeks, the Broncos have scored at least 27 points in each game, averaging 33.2 ppg during that stretch.
That’s the kind of production that’s going to thoroughly tax a Bengals defense that has struggled, at times, to even prevent weaker offenses from putting up significant numbers against them. When a Mason Rudolph-led Titans offense puts up 27 points against you, you know you’re not exactly the Iron Curtain.
The Bengals can score the ball, too, having gone for at least 24 points in seven straight games now. And while the Broncos have as good a chance to slow him down as anyone, we can’t expect Burrow to be shut down entirely, seeing as how he has thrown for a minimum of 250 yards and three touchdowns in each of his last seven outings.
In other words, I think we’re looking at something resembling a shootout on Saturday, even if the Broncos are able to contain the Cincinnati passing game better than some of its recent, lesser opposition. The Bengals will also likely get at least a modest bump from being at home, while Denver should be able to move the ball both on the ground and in the air.
Denver has hit the Over in four straight games and seven of its last nine. The Bengals have similarly been paying off the Over, going above the total in six of their last eight contests. I expect those trends to continue on Saturday, and would likely continue betting the Over up to a total of 51.5.
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Broncos vs Bengals live odds
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