Who had plans to watch an NFL playoff game in Houston this year?
Anyone…?
I’m sure the Houston Texans are as surprised as the rest of us that they’re hosting the Cleveland Browns in the AFC Wild Card Round later today.
After a topsy-turvy Week 18, the Texans earned the AFC South title and the home postseason game that goes along with it. Their Super Bowl odds sit at +3,500, and oddsmakers are giving the nod to the visitor in this game, setting Cleveland as a 2.5-point favorite in the Wild Card odds.
I break down the NFL odds for this afternoon’s 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Browns at Texans on Saturday, January 13.
Be sure to check out our Browns vs. Texans props and C.J. Stroud spotlight as well!
Browns vs Texans odds
Browns vs Texans predictions
If the Houston Texans don’t want young C.J. Stroud to crack under the playoff pressure, they’ll need running back Devin Singletary to share that weight in the Wild Card Round.
The Cleveland Browns defense will look to come after the first-year QB, boasting one of the nastiest pass rushes in the land, and in order to keep Cleveland honest, Houston will go with a healthy dose of the ground game.
Singletary didn’t do much against Cleveland back in Week 16, picking up only 44 yards on nine carries, but that had more to do with the Texans falling behind so quickly without Stroud under center and having to abandon the run game early on.
Singletary still picked up 4.9 yards per carry and had a nice 17-yard gain in the first quarter that could have been a home run play if not for a shoe-string trip-up from the Browns safety.
If Cleveland’s defense does have a glaring soft spot, it’s slowing down the run. The Browns do rank No. 1 in run-stop win rate at ESPN, but they’re middle of the road in EPA allowed per handoff on the year with that advanced metric sliding back to 20th since Week 12.
The Browns have given up 65 yards or more to a running back in four of the seven games in that stretch, including getting gashed for 80-plus yards in three of those outings. Cleveland has allowed 5.1 yards per carry over the past three weeks.
Singletary started the season slow but has been a beast in the second half of the schedule, marching for 60 yards or more in six of the past nine outings. He’s knocked Dameon Pierce from atop the depth chart and is getting the bulk of snaps and carries.
He’s averaging 4.5 yards per carry since Week 9, just shy of 69 yards per game, and has a great shot to top his rushing yards total in Saturday’s playoff game. Bookies have Singletary’s rushing yards prop parked at 63.5 yards (Over -114).
Wild Card player projections are positive for Singletary, with many models coming in well above 70 yards on the ground this Saturday. There’s a ceiling of 85.6 yards while my number is a bit more tempered, forecasted at 72 rushing yards.
My best bet: Devin Singletary Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Browns vs Texans same-game parlay
Devin Singletary Over 63.5 rushing yards
Amari Cooper anytime TD
Elijah Moore Over 29.5 receiving yards
Singletary shares the offensive load with Stroud, with projections pointing to a big day on the ground vs. a softer Browns run stop.
Amari Cooper caught two touchdowns vs. Houston in Week 16 and will be Flacco’s favorite option.
Elijah Moore had a quiet day vs. Houston earlier in the season but he’s also been a top target for Flacco. His 29.5-yard receiving total is a notable downtick from his standard O/U of 35.5 the previous two games. Projections sit closer to 40 yards for the WR.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
FanDuel NFL Wild Card bonuses
Odds Boost
Collins/Njoku 1+ 1Q reception each
-110 BOOSTED to +130!
Profit Boost
25% boost for Browns/Texans live bet
e.g. -114 BOOSTS to +110!
SGP Promo
Get one no-sweat 3+ leg SGP (min. odds +400)
Bonus bets back if you don't win!
Sign Up Offer
Create a new account, bet $5 on any wager
Get $150 in bonus bets!
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2024.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Browns vs Texans spread and Over/Under analysis
Some early spreads had Cleveland as a 1.5-point road favorite in the Wild Card Round but the majority of sportsbooks opened with a 2.5-point spread, which has stayed steady most of the week.
There have been a handful of operators flirting with Houston +3, but immediate buyback on the home side knocked that line back below the field goal. According to Covers Consensus, 59% of early picks are laying the points with the Browns.
Bettors don’t have to go too far back to see how these clubs match up, as Houston hosted Cleveland back in Week 16. The Browns scored a 36-22 victory as closing 3-point faves, but the Texans were without stud rookie QB C.J. Stroud for that game, instead left with backup Davis Mills and Case Keenum under center.
Just how Stroud will perform under the playoff pressure is the big question heading into Saturday. Traditionally, quarterbacks making their first postseason appearance aren’t great, going 27-50 SU and 30-46-1 against the spread (39%) since 2002.
Adding to the weight of this game is Stroud facing is the best defense in the NFL. Cleveland closed the regular season as the top-rated stop unit in EPA allowed per play and success rate allowed, as well as finished No. 2 in Defensive DVOA at FTN.
While the Browns have seen a decisive split in their defensive success between home and away (13.9 points allowed per home game vs. 29.6 ppg on the road), Cleveland is the toughest stop unit Stroud has faced since losing 30-6 to the New York Jets in the rain back in Week 14.
The Browns, who also ranked No. 1 in EPA allowed per dropback and success rate allowed per pass, will come after the Texans’ QB. Cleveland owns one of the best pass rushes in the land, collecting 49 sacks and ranking No. 2 in pass rush win rate at ESPN.
As for the other quarterback in this game, the Browns are hoping Joe Flacco’s fountain of youth continues to flow this weekend.
The veteran passer was a late-season pick-up for Cleveland after QB1 Deshaun Watson was lost for the year and he’s given this passing game life and helped push the Browns to the postseason and go 5-1 ATS in his six starts.
Flacco finished Week 16 with 368 yards on 27 of 42 passing, connecting for three touchdowns but throwing two interceptions against the Texans.
Houston’s defense has been one of the better stop units against the run but finished 20th in EPA allowed per dropback and allowed the sixth most yards per attempt (7.0). The Texans do have a respectable pass rush, sitting fifth in pressure rate despite blitzing fewer than all but four teams in the NFL. They go against a stellar Browns o-line rated No. 4 in pass block win rate.
The Over/Under total for this Wild Card contest opened as low as 43 points on Sunday and quickly jumped to highs of 45 at some books before the market settled to 44.5 O/U. According to Covers Consensus, 55% of picks are taking the Over.
Cleveland was one of the better Over bets on the year, finishing 11-6 O/U – thanks in large part to that late-season surge on offense that closed the campaign on a 6-1 O/U streak. The team’s lopsided defensive results on the road led to a perfect 8-0 Over mark as a visitor.
Houston was one of the best Under plays in the regular season at 6-11 O/U, finishing 2-6 O/U in its last eight games against weaker offensive opposition. That Week 16 result was one of two Overs in that span. The Texans were 3-6 O/U inside NRG Stadium.
Browns vs Texans betting trend to know
The Houston Texans have gone Over in only six of their last 20 games (-9.40 Units / -43% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Texans.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Browns vs Texans game info
| Location: | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, January 13, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
| Opening odds: | Texans +1.5, 43 O/U |
Browns vs Texans latest injuries
Browns vs Texans weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
🕒Vermont: Sports betting is here!🕒
Vermont sports betting launched on January 11 — register now with our best Vermont sports betting apps as well as checking out the best Vermont sportsbook promos in the Green Mountain State!
21+ and present in VT. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the 
to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.
