The second of two Monday Night Football matchups in Week 7 sends the Los Angeles Chargers to the desert for a primetime pairing with the Arizona Cardinals.
Unlike the other MNF game, this Over/Under total predicts a lower-scoring contest, and that’s trickling into the anytime touchdown odds.
We have only three players priced below +200 to score a TD tonight, but with notable injuries on both sides, there could be some value hiding further down the NFL player prop board.
I run down how these teams align and dig into the anytime touchdown props for my best NFL picks and predictions for Chargers vs. Cardinals on October 21.
Chargers anytime touchdown pick
Will Dissly anytime touchdown
+400 at FanDuel
Los Angeles Chargers tight end Will Dissly sees his role in the receiving game take a significant step up tonight, considering top WRs Ladd McConkey (questionable) and Quentin Johnson (doubtful) are hurting and TE1 Hayden Hurst is still nursing a groin injury coming into MNF.
Dissly played a season high 67% of snaps in Week 6’s win over Denver. He drew five targets and caught four of those balls for 26 yards — all of which were season-highs.
Dissly and the Bolts face an Arizona Cardinals secondary that mixes man and zone but does lean toward zone coverage and could play more of that scheme considering injuries to starters in the secondary (DBs Sean Murphy-Bunting and Garrett Williams questionable).
The Chargers TE is their top-rated receiving option versus zone, according to PFF, and is the top tight end in the league in terms of effectiveness against zone coverage entering Week 7 (90.8). What’s more, the Cardinals are down their top coverage linebacker Owen Pappoe (out) and another starting LB Kyzir White is questionable.
That leaves favorable matchups when Dissly breaks out as a pass catcher. He drew his first red-zone target last week and while he hasn’t cracked the end zone yet, injuries to L.A. and Arizona make it a possibility tonight.
Projections sit around 0.2 TDs from Dissly, which is pretty much spot on with his touchdown anytime pricing.
Cardinals anytime touchdown pick
Michael Wilson anytime touchdown
+380 at FanDuel
Michael Wilson has quickly become one of Kyler Murray’s top targets and is coming off a Week 6 effort in which he caught two of four passes, including an 18-yard touchdown strike in the loss at Green Bay.
The 6-foot-2 WR is tied with Marvin Harrison Jr. with four red-zone targets on the year, grabbing three of those balls for two touchdowns. He gets an advantageous matchup against L.A. tonight, considering the state of the Bolts’ secondary and their defensive schemes.
Los Angeles’ pass defense is already hurting (missing Asante Samuel Jr. and Deane Leonard) and currently has Kristian Fulton and Ja'Sir Taylor listed as questionable. With Harrison Jr. drawing the attention of the secondary, Wilson could take advantage of second and third-string corners.
The Bolts also play the highest rate of zone coverage in the land, dropping deep and protecting against the home run play. Wilson rates out much stronger versus zone than man and has proven effective on short to intermediate routes, finding those gaps in the coverage.
Player projections for Wilson sit between 0.2 and 0.3 touchdowns on Monday, which gives some pop to his touchdown anytime price at +380, considering some other books are as low as +220 on Wilson’s TD odds.
Not intended for use in MA.
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