Chiefs vs Patriots Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 15: Second Half Stays Quet

The Kansas City Chiefs are reeling with a 1-3 straight up record over their last four games and head to Foxborough this week as 9.5-point road favorites vs. the New England Patriots, who are coming off a rare win and extra rest. 

With the public perception a little high on this New England offense after last week, are bettors getting a second-half total at the highest possible price heading into the weekend? 

I break down the NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for the Chiefs vs. Patriots on December 17. 

Chiefs vs Patriots odds

Chiefs vs Patriots predictions

The entire betting community knows the Kansas City Chiefs are one of the worst second-half-scoring teams in football, but it's still a market that doesn’t see a lot of liquidity early in the week. With books posting the second-half total at 17.5 (-110 to the Under), it’s time to continue to fade K.C.'s second-half totals that are 16-4 to the Under over its last 20 games. 

The Chiefs are averaging 7.2 2H points per game this year — ranking 29th in the league — which is two spots better than the New England Patriots who average 6.0 (tied for the league-worst). 

The Patriots’ offensive struggles aren’t reserved just for the second half, either, as they're the lowest-scoring team in football at 13.0 ppg. 

Last week is not swaying me in that this is a better offense with Bailey Zappe. The Steelers’ defense made some half-time adjustments and the New England quarterback attempted just seven second-half passes, took a sack, had an interception, and led the team to zero points. 

It’s an offense that still has question marks around a plethora of skilled players in Rhamondre Stevenson, Demario Douglas, DeVante Parker, and Kayshon Boutte who all missed Week 14. Zappe also currently ranks 45th of 47 QBs in RBSDM’s EPA+CPOE composite rankings. There is a reason their team total is set at 13.5. 

The Chiefs also don’t have an easy task to score points. New England's defense has been the lowest scoring since Week 9 and ranks fifth in EPA/play over that stretch with the No. 1 rush defense. 

Isiah Pacheco’s shoulder injury could certainly linger into the weekend, meaning a weak tandem of Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon could be on display Sunday. The duo gained 58 yards on 15 carries last week vs. the Bills. 

K.C. could be milking the clock in the final 30, especially if the Pats’ offense does nothing vs. this legit defense. If New England is down double digits late, the field-goal unit could be getting a rest and any 2H red-zone turnover on downs would be glorious for the Under. 

There are plenty of outs here for another low-scoring second half as the Under could still hit with the Chiefs scoring 14 points. If this is another slog of a game from New England (last week being the exception), the live 2H line could easily be much pricier than -110 or even fall to 16.5. 

My best bet: Second half Under 17.5 (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Chiefs vs Patriots same-game parlay

Second-half Under 19.5

Justin Watson Over 17.5 receiving yards

Patrick Mahomes Over 22.5 yards rushing 

+575 at bet365

The 2H Under is my favorite bet but at bet365, the choices are 16.5 and 19.5 so I took the safer route. Justin Watson is still running as the No. 2 and leads at the WRs in air-yard share. He can get this done in one play and the Pats are too tough to run against. With the way the ball is distributed, I'm happy to take the Overs on modest totals. 

Patrick Mahomes might be playing with the lead but running on passing downs late in the game with a lead is more common than bettors expect. He's rushed for at least 20 yards in 10 of his 13 games so there is a solid floor here with this prop. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Chiefs vs Patriots spread and Over/Under analysis

The Chiefs were -10 on the look-ahead line and re-opened as 9.5-point road favorites. The Pats do have the extra prep time but are a team that is also dealing with coaching distractions and a ton of lingering injuries to the offense. 

The narrative going into that game was New England is the worst offense in football and it technically still is at 13 points per game. 

The Bill Belichick news is getting loud as reports are whispering about a change at head coach this offseason, and the Chiefs aren’t floating on Cloud 9 either. They’ve dropped three of their last four games and are now two games back from the top spot in the AFC. Not to mention Denver is also now just one game back.

But let’s face it. If Kansas City can put up 17 points it should win this game, but winning by 10 might be asking a lot in this low-total game that sits at 37.5. However, the Chiefs have fared pretty well vs. the spread at nine points or more and are 3-0 ATS as a 9-point favorite or more with ATS wins at Las Vegas, vs. Denver, and vs. Chicago.

If the Pats can’t get their offensive players in the lineup, this spread could move back to -10 in an outdoor game where the weather shouldn’t play a factor. 

Only Carolina has been worse ATS this year than New England at 3-10 ATS, while both teams have been very profitable to the Under this year at identical 4-9 O/U records. 

Other betting notes:

• Ezekiel Elliott took all 22 running back carries last week for 86 yards in Stevenson’s absence. 
• JuJu Smith-Schuster and Tyquan Thornton ran as the No. 1 and No. 2 receivers last week with Parker, Douglas, and Boutte out. Jalen Reagor was No. 3 with an offense that ran 11 personnel at just 29% but 12 personnel at 56%. 
  
  
• Kadarius Toney played a season-high 42% snap share last week.
  
  
• The Chiefs had five receivers between 20% and 57% snap share last week.

Chiefs vs Patriots betting trend to know

The Kansas City Chiefs have only hit the 2H game total Over in four of their last 20 games (-13.85 Units / -62% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Patriots.

Chiefs vs Patriots game info

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Chiefs vs Patriots weather

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