The Kansas City Chiefs and their non-existent second-half offense will head to Sin City this weekend and look to avenge their Week 11 loss to the Eagles as they face the Las Vegas Raiders as a 9-point road favorite on this week's NFL odds.
Coming off his best game as a passer and likely facing plenty of negative game scripts indoors, are bettors sleeping on Las Vegas quarterback Aidan O’Connell and his modest passing total?
I break down the Week 12 NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Chiefs vs. Raiders on November 26.
Chiefs vs Raiders odds
Chiefs vs Raiders predictions
Aidan O’Connell has made three straight starts and is 2-1 SU with the only loss coming last week vs. the Dolphins. He's also coming off a 273-yard performance. That game featured a relatively neutral game script despite the Las Vegas Raiders entering as heavy 14-point dogs. There is a chance that the same game script exists this week vs. the Kansas City Chiefs, but even if it doesn't, the Las Vegas QB will have plenty of passing opportunities in a dome setting.
AOC has topped his passing total of 196.5 yards in three of his four starts this year. That one Under was vs. the Jets’ elite defense and the Raiders ran the ball on over 50% of the plays. That is a stark comparison to last week where O’Connell threw the ball 42 times compared to just 14 carries for Josh Jacobs.
The Las Vegas QB has all his pass-catchers healthy and may be asked to throw the ball 35-plus times again this week which is something he has been asked to do two times over those four starts.
The KC defense is a solid unit but it is coming in off a short week and the matchup is priced in. The game script and indoor setting are what is making this a +EV play for THE BLITZ which is projecting 230 passing yards for AOC.
The best scenario here is that KC jumps out to a big lead and Las Vegas is forced to pass, but as last week showed us, if the Raiders can keep this competitive, the passing game can still put up very good numbers.
My best bet: Aidan O’Connell Over 196.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Chiefs vs Raiders same-game parlay
Aidan O'Connell Over 199.5 passing yards
Under 43.5 points
Raiders +9.5
I'm taking a slightly worse number on AOC's passing total to get a much better SGP price at bet365. The movement on this total has favored the Under and neither team has done much in the second half in terms of scoring as KC ranks 32nd and Las Vegas 30th in second-half scoring.
Vegas' performance on the road vs. Miami last week is giving me some hope for them to cover this big number at home vs. a divisional opponent.
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Chiefs vs Raiders spread and Over/Under analysis
The Chiefs were -9 on the look-ahead and have stayed there all week. They are coming off a Monday-night loss to the Eagles as a 2.5-point home favorite but this 9-point road spread is the longest the Chiefs have been all season when traveling. They were -8.5 vs. the Jets at the Meadowlands and -7 at Denver. They failed to cover either of those games and lost outright to the Broncos.
On the other side of things, the Raiders are 2-1 SU since AOC took over as QB again and were very competitive vs. the Dolphins last week despite being outgained by 1.6 yards per play vs the No.1 offense in football.
The Chiefs’ offensive struggles have been well-documented this week. They can’t score in the second half and Patrick Mahomes has been more average than MVP. He also has possibly the worst supporting cast of his career and Mecole Hardman was a DNP at practice on Wednesday.
Since Antonio Pierce was named the head coach of the Raiders, the defense has ranked second in EPA/play and third in success rate over the last three weeks. It could be a defense that gives KC more trouble offensively than many are expecting. The Dolphins only had two red-zone trips last week vs. this defense and struggled on third down going 3-for-14.
It should also be noted that at the time of writing, Maxx Crosby had yet to practice and his absence could move the line. He played through a knee injury last week and played every defensive snap in Week 11.
Both defenses are likely the reason this total has been bet down from a look-ahead of 45 to 43. It’s hard to get excited about an Under indoors, but combined, these two teams have been very profitable to the Under, going a combined 4-17 O/U on the season. No game with Pierce coaching has seen even 40 combined points scored.
Chiefs vs Raiders betting trend to know
The Kansas City Chiefs have only hit the 2H Game Total Over in 3 of their last 20 games (-13.85 Units / -62% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Raiders.
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Chiefs vs Raiders game info
| Location: | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Sunday, November 26, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
| Opening odds: | Raiders +8.5, 44.5 O/U |
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Chiefs vs Raiders weather
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