The Washington Commanders are playoff-bound, and now head coach Dan Quinn will return to his old stomping grounds as he looks to head into the postseason on a high note against the Dallas Cowboys.
Despite news that Trey Lance will start for Dallas, my Commanders vs. Cowboys predictions will highlight why a pass-heavy focus may work for Dallas against a secondary that’s struggled in recent weeks.
Read below for my NFL picks for Sunday, January 5. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, with the game airing on CBS.
Commanders vs Cowboys prediction
Commanders vs Cowboys spread prediction
The Cowboys may stand at 7-9 with their playoff hopes crushed, but there’s a lot to like about the way they’ve closed out the season. Their defense sits 15th in EPA allowed per play in the last five weeks, and as noted above, they’ve found some excellent form with two wins over quality opponents.
With Washington looking ahead to the playoffs and thinking conservatively, however, I do think there is a chance this one could get away from the favorites – at least enough for the Cowboys to find a way in. Washington’s defense is just 14th in EPA allowed per dropback over the last five weeks, coming off a game against rookie Michael Penix, which saw them look rather ineffective despite picking off on pass. He went for 6.4 yards per attempt and was sacked twice, and with Dallas throwing a bunch I do think this one has all the makings of an upset.
Commanders vs Cowboys moneyline prediction
The Cowboys have only tuned up the pace in throwing the ball more in recent weeks and sit sixth in pass-play rate, something that’s remained true despite the loss of Dak Prescott. So, I do think this Commanders' team – ranked 20th against the pass according to DVOA this year – will have a lot to prove.
With the playoffs ahead and some banged-up players getting a little bit of a rest, I think Dallas should build a lead with its love for early-down passing – particularly if the Commanders’ pass rush remains stagnant.
That should put the ball into the hands of Jayden Daniels against a rather strong secondary, which is a recipe for disaster on the Washington side.
Commanders vs Cowboys total prediction
The Cowboys have gone over the total in six of their last seven, and at home, it’s gone 6-2 to the Over this season. With nothing left to play for and an eye towards a pass-heavy approach, there should be nothing stopping them from airing the ball out all game long – certainly not this secondary, which has struggled mightily.
Washington could have some issues against this secondary, but it still sits ninth in EPA per dropback in the last five weeks, and Dallas, while good, isn’t elite against the pass.
I like following the game script here of a Dallas lead followed by plenty of Washington passing, which should move the ball downfield the way we’d like.
My best bet
Jayden Daniels Over 46.5 rushing yards (-120 at BetMGM)
My analysis
While many would be scared to back Jayden Daniels to run the ball, and the Washington Commanders themselves may be scared to let him do so in a largely meaningless game, we can’t ignore the matchup here.
The Dallas Cowboys own the second-best sack rate in the league, getting to the quarterback with ease behind Micah Parsons, and that generally means that opposing signal-callers have no choice but to bail on the pocket against them.
Washington’s line has been good, but it hasn’t been this good. I expect Daniels to feel the heat here, and in a game that could feature plenty of dropbacks given the script I’ve laid out, there’s a great chance we see him clear this number for a fourth straight game and a 10th time all year.
Commanders vs Cowboys same-game parlay (SGP)
Cowboys +6.5
Jalen Tolbert anytime touchdown
My Daniels rushing prop wasn't allowed to correlate with my other two legs, but what they did allow will pay handsomely if it lands.
We also hit on how frequently the Cowboys are throwing the ball, which is why I’ve got no choice but to take a shot on a touchdown scorer here.
Jalen Tolbert has taken on a much larger role in recent weeks, with CeeDee Lamb hitting the shelf, taking his steady share of snaps and turning them into production. He’s not exactly the most targeted player on this team, but he’s been a red zone favorite of Cooper Rush and now owns a touchdown in three straight.
Washington has struggled mainly against outside receivers, and it’s not exactly been the best against the pass, either. I see a couple of receiving touchdowns materializing for Dallas.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Commanders vs Cowboys odds
Commanders vs Cowboys live odds
Commanders vs Cowboys opening odds
- Spread: Washington -3 (-110) | Dallas +3 (-110)
- Moneyline: Washington (-160) | Dallas (+135)
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 (-110) | Under 45.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Commanders vs Cowboys spread and Over/Under analysis
- This line has fluctuated greatly in the last day, diving down to 3 and jetting all the way to 6.5 with news of Lance starting.
- BetMGM is reporting that 70% of the bets are on the Commanders to cover.
- The total jumped up a point to 47.5 before barreling in the opposite direction upon the Dallas quarterback news, going as low as 43.5.
- The Over has accounted for a whopping 81% of the bets on the total.
- According to Covers Consensus, 69% of spread picks are laying the points with Washington, while 72% of total picks are siding with the Over.
Commanders vs Cowboys betting trend to know
The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+7.00 Units / 65% ROI. Find more NFL betting trends for Commanders vs. Cowboys.
How to watch Commanders vs Cowboys game info
| Location: | AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, 1-5, 2025 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Commanders vs Cowboys latest injuries
Commanders vs Cowboys weather
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