Cowboys vs Bills Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 15: Cowboys Meet Regression

The Dallas Cowboys put their five-game winning streak on the line Sunday at Highmark Stadium vs. a Buffalo Bills team that sits a slight 2-point NFL odds favorite and is coming off a pair of solid-showing road games vs. the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs. 

The Cowboys’ offense has been blessed with some comfortable passing conditions this year, but even with decent Buffalo weather, this will be the worst spot for them of the season. With the hype a little too loud, is Week 15 the time to fade Dak and the Cowboys?

I break down the Week 15 NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Cowboys vs. Bills on December 17. 

Cowboys vs Bills odds

Cowboys vs Bills predictions

What the Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott have done over the last five games has been impressive. They’ve outscored their opponents 201 to 85 but they’ve also played the Giants, Panthers, Commanders, Seahawks, and Eagles — a combined record of 26-39 SU. 

This is also a team that is 7-0 at home indoors compared to 3-3 SU on the road with the worst passing conditions being in Week 9 in Philadelphia. The other road games were at the Meadowlands in September, Arizona, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Carolina. 

Even in those solid road passing conditions, the difference in what Dak Prescott has done on the road compared to at home is significant. 

Away from Dallas, his completion percentage is 11 points lower (74% to 63.5%), his QB rating is 34 points lower (122.5 to 88.7), his yards per pass are 1.6 yards shorter and his TD/INT ratio goes from 20/2 to 8/4. He has just eight passing TDs on the road this year and has faced five pass defenses that rank in the bottom half of the league in success rate. 

Highmark Stadium is set to have double-digit winds and a small chance of rain — nothing crazy for NFL weather standards in Buffalo, but likely the worst passing conditions that this offense has seen all season. 

This Dallas offense has inflated its numbers on the backs of some awful teams and great settings but it has gone over 23 points on the road just once in its last five travel games with Carolina being the exception. 

Defensive metrics can be noisy, but the Buffalo Bills offense will look to run the ball more with heavy personnel now that Dawson Knox is back and slow things down. Following the bye, Joe Brady’s offense went from 3-WR sets 76% of the time to 47% of the time last week and it runs at one of the slower paces in football in general and in neutral context. 

The noise can’t be higher for this offense and I’m shorting them this week in Buffalo.  

My best bet: Cowboys team total Under 24.5 (-114 at FanDuel) 
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Cowboys vs Bills same-game parlay

Cowboys team total Under 24.5 points

Khalil Shakir Under 27.5 receiving yards

Josh Allen Under 257.5 passing yards

25% boost available

+329 +411 at FanDuel

This is a correlated play that has the Bills playing with the lead while leaning more on the run. Hopefully, that kills the clock with their slow offensive pace. The Bills went away from 3-WR sets last week but some books haven't adjusted to that. Khalil Shakir Under 27.5 yards is a great play solo as he had just one target last week. THE BLITZ has Josh Allen's Under 257.7 passing yards as one of the best +EV props in this game with a projection of 233.16. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Cowboys vs Bills spread and Over/Under analysis

The Cowboys are a popular road dog this week in Orchard Park but the look-ahead line has moved in favor of the Bills from -1.5 to as long as -2.5. Dallas enters with a dominating stretch that goes back to mid-November, but as I mentioned above, this Dallas offense has had things pretty easy with either poor opponents, a great setting for this offense, or both. 

The last time this team had to play in a tough environment, the Eagles took a 28-23 victory as a 3-point home favorite. Now Dak Prescott, who has eight TDs and four picks over his six road games, heads to the worst passing conditions he’s faced all year and Highmark Stadium won’t even be that bad with double-digit winds and a slight chance of rain.

Buffalo is coming off a win at Arrowhead as a slight dog and likely win that game in Philadelphia more times than not the week before as a 3-point dog. 

Dawson Knox is back and new OC Joe Brady can get back to using his two-TE sets more and doesn't have to run out a weaker WR crew on 75% of his plays. That could lead to more Buffalo running as it continues to get James Cook involved while also giving carries to Latavius Murray and now Ty Johnson. 

The total is the highest on the board at 50.5 after a look-ahead of 49. It’s the highest total of the year for the Bills who are 4-9 O/U on the season and play at a slower pace than many assume. Neither team has hit an Over with a closing total of 49 or higher this year with a 4-0 record to the Under. 

Looking at injuries, the Bills could be without starting safety Micah Hyde who had a stinger last week and exited. Taylor Rapp would fill in if Hyde were to sit. Rapp does grade very poorly in coverage which would favor the Over and the Cowboys.

Dalton Kincaid is also dealing with a thumb and shoulder injury but was limited on Wednesday (estimated). 

On the Dallas side, its biggest concern is on the defensive line with Johnathan Hankins doubtful and not expected to play at DT. Staring safety Malik Hooker was also a DNP on the Wednesday estimated practice report. 

I can’t see the Bills hitting 3 here as both teams were 3-point dogs in Philly recently putting this between -1.5 and -2 in Buffalo’s favor. I certainly lean on the Bills at -1.5 and think this total is a little high for an indoor offense that has been running too hot of late and a slow-paced Buffalo team that could run the ball more with the injury to the Dallas interior defensive line.  

Cowboys vs Bills betting notes

• Rico Dowdle finished with 12 carries to Tony Pollard’s 16 last week and had eight first-half carries. His role could be evolving. Dowdle also took one of the two RB carries from inside the 5-yard line which he punched in. 
  
  
• Michael Gallup and Jalen Tolbert continue to split snaps as the No.3 WR with both pass-catchers finishing with 52% and 40% route shares for an offense that ran 3-WR sets at 61% last week. 
  
  
• With Knox back, the Bills went from 3-WR sets at over 75% to just 47% last week thanks to featuring more 2-TE sets and 2-RB/6-OL sets at a combined 20%. 
  
  
• Johnson continues to carve out a role in the Buffalo backfield under the new OC. He had five carries and two targets last week including one target in the red zone. His snap share is coming at the expense of Murray.

Cowboys vs Bills betting trend to know

The Dallas Cowboys have only hit the 2H Moneyline in 3 of their last 11 away games (-7.40 Units / -39% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Cowboys vs. Bills.

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