Falcons vs Bears Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 17: Chicago Plucks Atlanta's Feathers

The Chicago Bears host the Atlanta Falcons in Week 17 of NFL action this afternoon. While the 6-9 Bears have less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs, they are playing their best football of the season while the 7-8 Falcons are just one game behind the Buccaneers in the NFC South.

NFL odds opened with the Bears installed as 3-point home favorites with the Over/Under at 37.5. Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for the Falcons vs. Bears on December 31. 

Falcons vs Bears odds

Falcons vs Bears predictions

The Atlanta Falcons are fifth in defensive EPA and first in defensive rush EPA. That said, they've benefited from playing one of the easiest schedules in the NFL and the best offense they've faced over the last 10 games belongs to Tampa Bay. When it comes to defensive DVOA (which takes the level of competition into account) the Falcons are a more modest 19th in the league. 

The Chicago Bears are 4-2 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games with both of their defeats during that span coming in close contests on the road against the Browns and Lions. 

Taylor Heinicke played well in last week's rout of the Colts, completing 23 of 33 passes for 229 yards. However, that was his best performance in four starts this year so while he might be an upgrade over Desmond Ridder, he still has a low ceiling as a passer.

This Falcons offense will only be as good as its ground game, which churned out 177 yards last week, but they rank just 23rd in rush EPA and 26th in rush success rate on the year. While they ran all over the Colts, they won't have the same success against a Bears stop unit that is second in the league in defensive EPA and first in defensive rush EPA since Week 5.

Current weather forecasts for Sunday have clear skies with the temperature close to freezing but the biggest factor is the wind, which is projected to be just below that 15-mph threshold. That said, the Bears have a strong ground game and a quarterback who can move the chains without throwing, so it shouldn't affect them much.

Justin Fields looked stiff at the start of the year as he tried to commit to being a pocket QB but he's been moving around more and taking advantage of his feet to make plays lately. Since coming back from a thumb injury in Week 11, Fields has played well in four of five starts with his lone poor performance coming on the road against the Browns' stingy defense. 

I wish this number came off that key number of 3, but it's tough to back warm-weather teams that play in domes traveling to cold-weather cities at this time of the year, especially with the home side doing a more consistent job of running the ball and stopping the run. I'll lean toward the Bears here and buy that half-point. 

My best bet: Bears -2.5 (-122 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Falcons vs Bears same-game parlay

Bears alternate spread -2.5

Bijan Robinson Over 22.5 receiving yards

Kyle Pitts 3+ receptions

+425 at bet365

Bijan Robinson reeled in a season-high seven catches for 50 yards last week. He has more than 25 receiving yards in four of his last five games and should get plenty of targets against a Bears defense that gives up a ton of catches to players out of the backfield. Chicago has surrendered a whopping 887 receiving yards to opposing running backs — nearly 200 more than second-worst Jacksonville.

Meanwhile, Kyle Pitts has posted at least three catches in 10 of his last 11 games. The Bears are a middle-of-the-pack team at defending tight ends, ranking 18th in receiving yards allowed to the position, so there's little reason to think he'll go below this number on Sunday.

This leg of the parlay is priced at -190 on its own (which is still good value given how often Pitts hits this number), but it brings the overall parlay from +230 to +425 because of its correlation to the Bears covering and Robinson eclipsing his receiving yards number. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Falcons vs Bears spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread opened with the Bears as 3-point home faves and hasn't moved off that key number. The total opened at 37.5 and has ticked up to 38. 

The Falcons are 3-2 straight up and against the spread in their last five games. While they lost to the league's worst team, the Carolina Panthers, in Week 15, they bounced back with a 29-10 victory at home versus the Colts last week. 

The Bears are also coming off a double-digit victory after beating the Cardinals 27-16 last week. They've won three of their last four games as Fields tries to prove that he should still be their franchise QB moving forward. 

Falcons vs Bears betting trend to know

The Bears are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games. Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Bears.

Falcons vs Bears game info

Falcons vs Bears latest injuries

Falcons vs Bears weather

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