Week 7 features an intriguing clash between the New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football.
How will this Jets offense look after trading for star receiver Davante Adams? And does Russell Wilson have anything left in the tank as he makes his Steelers debut? My NFL picks analyze both of those narratives as I bring you my best NFL player props for October 20.
Make sure to also check out our full Jets vs. Steelers predictions!
Jets vs Steelers SNF props
Rodgers o33.5 pass attempts (-120 at bet365)- McDonald IV to record a sack (-105 at bet365)
Harris o71.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 at bet365)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Jets vs Steelers SNF props
Prop bet #1: Aaron Rodgers Over 33.5 pass attempts
I'm unsure what Davante Adams' stat line will look like in his first game with the New York Jets, but I'm confident that his presence will make Todd Downing open up his playbook. Aaron Rodgers hasn't looked like the MVP that he was in Green Bay, and Adams was brought in to elevate this passing game to another level.
The Jets haven't been able to run the ball with any consistency, so they'll likely choose to throw against a Pittsburgh Steelers defense that has been more vulnerable through the air.
Rodgers has thrown the ball at least 35 times in each of his last four contests, averaging 41.5 pass attempts per game over that span. Although that number is inflated by a game against the Vikings where the Jets trailed 17-0 in the second quarter, Rodgers has also eclipsed his pass attempts total in closer contests this year.
The Jets already pass at the third-highest rate (64.3%) in the league, and after reuniting Rodgers with Adams, that number could tick up even further.
Prop bet #2: Will McDonald IV to record a sack
The biggest drop-off from Justin Fields to Russell Wilson is mobility. Wilson has been sacked 100 times in 30 games over the last two years, and the veteran quarterback might be even less mobile if he's still feeling the effects of the calf injury that has sidelined him twice this year.
Pittsburgh's offensive line ranks 24th in the league in pass blocking grade per PFF, and 24.9% of their allowed pressure comes at right tackle — where Broderick Jones has given up five sacks.
Jets edge rusher Will McDonald IV has racked up seven sacks in the last five games and has seen an increase in playing time lately. McDonald averaged 33.3 snaps per game through the first four weeks of the season but has seen that number surge to 49.5 over the last two games, with the majority of those snaps coming on the left side.
Prop bet #3: Najee Harris Over 71.5 rushing + receiving yards
The Jets are surrendering 124.2 yards per game on the ground and rank just 27th in defensive rush success rate. That's good news for Steelers running back Najee Harris, who is coming off rushing for a season-high 106 yards on 14 carries.
Harris is also a pass-catching threat out of the backfield, averaging 22.5 receiving yards per game. Wilson loves to throw the ball to his backs, with Broncos running backs Samaje Perine, Javonte Williams, and Jaleel McLaughlin combining for an incredible 128 receptions last year.
Wilson will face plenty of pressure from the Jets pass rush this week, especially with center Zach Frazier and guard James Daniels sidelined by injuries. Expect Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith to try and defuse that pressure by leaning on the ground game and getting Wilson to throw quick outlet passes.
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