The San Francisco 49ers start their path to the Super Bowl odds in the NFL Divisional Round, set as sizable favorites in the Divisional Round odds when they host the upstart Green Bay Packers tonight.
San Francisco got to sit back and watch Wild Card Weekend live up to its name, thanks in large part to Green Bay smashing the Dallas Cowboys as road underdogs.
The Cheeseheads hit the highway for the second straight game, taking on the NFC’s top seed but a Niners team with a recent history of coming up short in the postseason. Does Green Bay have another upset in it, or is this finally the year for Kyle Shanahan’s squad?
I break down the NFL odds for this NFC Divisional Round matchup and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Packers vs. 49ers on January 20.
Be sure to also check out our Packers vs. 49ers prop picks and spotlight picks for Christian McCaffrey odds!
Packers vs 49ers odds
Packers vs 49ers predictions
Defending Kyle Shanahan’s offense is very much a “pick your poison” proposition for opponents. The 49ers have a toy box of playmakers on this depth chart, including receiver Brandon Aiyuk.
Aiyuk finished the regular season with a bang. While he was limited in play during the meaningless Week 18 finale, he posted efforts of 113, 114, and 126 yards in three of the four prior games.
Aiyuk is set up for another big day in the Divisional Round. He faces a Packers pass defense that splits time between zone and man but ran a predominantly deep zone coverage against the Cowboys last week.
The Niners’ WR ranks among the elite versus both coverages at PFF.com but is the No. 3 rated receiver against zone coverage. Aiyuk averages 17.1 yards per reception against zone and the Packers have been susceptible to big plays while running zone schemes.
Aiyuk is a unique receiver as well, with the speed to break away deep downfield and the size and strength to muscle his way into space underneath. In fact, that’s his preferred place to operate, which is bad news for the Packers who have had their zone defense blown up from the middle (26th in middle deep yardage allowed).
"Anytime you get to go across the middle, you get chances for big exposure plays," Aiyuk told reporters. "And the way that Brock (Purdy) is able to see it and throw it on time and pace, it just makes for good offense. So, really, anywhere on the field, I'm trying to catch the football. But I think through the middle of the field, we've definitely got some work in through there."
The Cheeseheads, who finished 23rd in EPA allowed per dropback and 31st in success rate allowed per dropback, will possibly be down their top pass defender in corner Jaire Alexander. He reaggravated an ankle injury on Sunday and now has a short week to heal up for Saturday night.
The Brandon Aiyuk odds for Saturday night have his receiving yard total at 67.5 yards. This number opened as low as 62.5 yards at some sportsbooks and instantly took money on the Over, driving it up another five yards.
Player projections for the Divisional Round call for a bigger performance from Aiyuk, with some models as high as 84 yards and the floor being 74 yards. My number came out to 79 yards, which puts us well past the Over — even at the larger prop total.
Game script and spread would also play into a big offensive effort from San Francisco, with the line flirting with double digits and the total above 50 points.
My best bet: Brandon Aiyuk Over 67.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel) 50% live boost available
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Packers vs 49ers same-game parlay
Brandon Aiyuk Over 67.5 receiving yards
49ers HT/FT
Under 50.5
No-sweat promo available
Aiyuk is a home run hitter who can rough up the Packers secondary without Alexander.
San Francisco is a fast starter and one of the best first half teams. The Niners will hold a halftime lead and cruise to the win at home.
This total feels tall, especially with the way the 49ers can grind out gains on the ground and milk the clock. Game script says San Francisco should be protecting a solid lead in the final 30 minutes.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
FanDuel NFL Wild Card bonuses
Odds Boost
Jones/Samuel 60+ scrimmage yards each
-150 BOOSTED to +100!
Odds Boost
Packers +14.5/Love 200+ pass yards
-135 BOOSTED to +120!
Profit Boost
50% boost for Packers/49ers live bet
e.g. -114 BOOSTS to +132!
SGP Promo
Get one no-sweat 3+ leg SGP
Bonus bets back if you don't win! (min. +400 odds)
Sign Up Offer
Create a new account and bet $5 on any wager to get $150 in bonus bets!
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2024.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Packers vs 49ers spread and Over/Under analysis
Lookahead lines had the Packers as 9.5-point underdogs in Santa Clara even before Green Bay had completed its upset over Dallas on Sunday. Once that Wild Card win was official, the opening lines bounced between -9.5 and -10.
As of Tuesday, most sportsbooks are dealing 49ers -9.5, but you can get the underdog Packers at the key number of +10 for a little extra vig if you shop around. According to Covers Consensus, 62% of early picks are taking the points with Green Bay.
The Packers do hold the edge in momentum and played their best football down the homestretch, specifically quarterback Jordan Love. After a slow start to his first year as QB1, Love and his young receiving corps found their footing around Week 11.
Green Bay is 7-2 SU and 6-2 ATS in its last nine games, with the passing game rated No. 1 in EPA per dropback in that stretch. In fact, the only other offense that rated higher than the Packers since Week 11 in EPA per play just so happens to be their opponents this weekend.
San Francisco has been among the most efficient offenses all year and present plenty of headaches for the Green Bay defense. The Niners have a dominant rushing attack with RB Christian McCaffrey and a tricky passing playbook that keeps stop units guessing with pre-snap motion and a bevy of big-play weapons.
The 49ers enjoyed a bye week to rest and prepare for their possible opponent, taking an 8-1 SU streak (5-4 ATS) into a Week 18 game in which they rested and limited several key players.
Funny enough, the Niners were a better team on the road this season in terms of wins and betting success. San Francisco was 5-3 SU and 3-5 ATS inside Levi’s Stadium and boasted an average margin of +8.1 points in those homestands.
Saturday’s total hit the board as low as 50 points and jumped to as high as 51 before buyback on the Under trimmed it back to the original opener. As of Tuesday afternoon, most shops are dealing the total at 50.5 points. According to Covers Consensus, 59% of early picks are taking the Over.
The 49ers bring the much stronger defense to the table in the Divisional Round. The Niners finished the season fourth in Defensive DVOA at FTN and No. 10 in EPA allowed per play, with their best work coming against the pass (No. 5 in EPA per dropback allowed).
Joe Barry’s defense isn’t on that same level. The Packers were 27th in Defensive DVOA and rank 23rd in EPA allowed per play after the Wild Card Round. Green Bay did allow 32 points to Dallas, but half of those came with garbage time with several starters getting pulled. However, the ankle injury to star corner Jaire Alexander (questionable) is a big problem for this stop unit.
The 49ers were 10-7 O/U on the season with a 5-3 O/U count at home. San Francisco ranked among the best in the league in many scoring statistics but this offense does run at the highest rate and also burns the most seconds per play, due to Shanahan’s pre-snap motion plays.
Green Bay is one of the better Over bets at 11-7 O/U, including the Over in the Wild Card win. The Packers, who are 8-2 O/U as visitors, have topped the total in seven of their last eight games going back to Week 12.
The forecast for Saturday night could throw rain and lighter winds at these teams in Santa Clara. Light showers are expected throughout the 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff.
Packers vs 49ers betting trend to know
The 49ers have scored first in eight of their last nine home games, earning +6.40 units for a 36% ROI. San Francisco is a -160 favorite to score the first points of this game Saturday night. Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. 49ers.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Packers vs 49ers game info
| Location: | Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, January 20, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Opening odds: | 49ers -10, 50.5 |
Packers vs 49ers latest injuries
Packers vs 49ers weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the 
to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.
