The Thursday Night Football odds are showing the lowest total on the Week 3 board. At 38 points, bookies aren’t expecting many fireworks between the New England Patriots and New York Jets. That puts a premium on touchdowns and offers little variance in the anytime touchdown markets.
You have three players priced at +145 or shorter to score on Thursday night, with all other options offering 3/1 payouts or higher. If someone else can sneak into the end zone, there’s potential for huge profits.
Check out my Patriots vs. Jets predictions for even more picks ahead of kickoff.
New England Patriots anytime touchdown pick
My best bet:
Jacoby Brissett anytime touchdown (+700 at FanDuel)
My analysis:
With a team total just shy of 17 points, the New England Patriots are projected to score just two touchdowns on Thursday.
Rhamondre Stevenson is the favorite to find paydirt at +105, followed by fellow running back Antonio Gibson at +460. This adds up, as Stevenson is a downhill runner and has taken 13 snaps in the red zone so far in 2024 compared to only three from Gibson.
The other guy handling the ball inside the 20-yard line is veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett. Say what you want about Brissett’s passing skill set but when the pressure mounts, the 31-year-old can still haul ass.
Brissett ran seven times for 32 rushing yards in the Week 1 stunner at Cincinnati and going back to his last season as a QB1, he put in some solid days on the ground for Cleveland in 2022. He’s been a career backup — for the most part — so his rushing stats aren’t overwhelming, but we have seen the burly Brissett called in for several QB sneak packages during his tenure in the pros.
The Patriots don’t have many receiving options inside the red zone and face a New York Jets defense that can get after the quarterback, potentially flushing Brissett out of the pocket and prompting him to scramble for the end zone when plays break down — and they will.
Some books have this TD prop as short as +500 but FanDuel is offering +700 on the surprisingly swift Brissett to find himself in the end zone. It’s worth a fun flyer on TNF.
New York Jets anytime touchdown pick
My best bet:
Allen Lazard anytime touchdown (+350 at FanDuel)
My analysis:
Aaron Rodgers plays favorites. It’s the reason half of his old Packers pals had contracts with the Jets last season.
He’s been targeted 13 times (second among Jets WRs) and is a trusted option in the red zone, with four of those passes coming inside the 20-yard line — tied for the fourth-most RZ targets among all WRs entering Week 3.
Player projections have Lazard forecasted for 0.3 touchdowns and the Jets are facing a Patriots’ red-zone defense ranked middle of the pack through two games (40% TD rate allowed).
At 6-foot-5 and 230 pounds, Lazard is a big target when knocking on the door of the end zone, as he showed on a garbage time TD from backup QB Tyrod Taylor in Week 1. He can bully his way into space or win those jump-ball passes.
New England doesn’t have the height in the secondary to compete with Lazard, topping out at 6-foot-1 and featuring several starting DBs at 5-foot-11 and shorter. I could see Lazard going over the top and striking the "too small” pose in his TD celebration tonight.
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