A pair of division leaders in the AFC will meet in the wind (and possibly rain) in Week 15 odds as MVP-hopeful Lamar Jackson takes the Baltimore Ravens into Jacksonville as NFL odds favorites opposite the Jaguars.
With so much on the line, should bettors be backing Jackson on the ground in a setting that could suppress passing volume in the SNF odds?
Find out in my NFL picks for Ravens vs. Jaguars on December 17, and be sure to check out our SNF prop picks and Lamar Jackson spotlight as well!
Ravens vs Jaguars odds
Ravens vs Jaguars predictions
THE BLITZ projects Lamar Jackson to reach 72.95 rushing yards, far surpassing his current rushing total of 47.5. With wild wind conditions in play, this could lead to even more running from the league's No. 1 rushing team.
Jackson enters Week 15 as the No. 3 betting favorite for MVP and his Baltimore Ravens sitting one game up on the Dolphins for the conference lead. He is coming off his second-best passing game of the season and although those passing conditions weren’t great, this week is going to be bad as well in Florida, with sustained winds of 20mph expected with gusts up to 40 mph. There is also a slight possibility of rain.
This could mean both teams lean on the run Sunday night.
Jackson is averaging 9.1 carries for 45.1 yards per game over his last 10 games, including 70 yards on 11 totes last week. The Jacksonville Jaguars are also going to be without two defensive starters in corner Tyson Campbell and safety Andre Cisco.
It’s a prime-time game with an MVP hopeful and winds that should suppress the passing volume. The projections love him and it’s easy to see why.
This rushing total is also three yards shorter than it was last week. Expect Lamar Jackson to make the MVP race a little tighter after Sunday’s performance.
My best bet: Lamar Jackson Over 47.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Ravens vs Jaguars same-game parlay
Jackson Over 47.5 rushing yards
Lawrence Over 13.5 rushing yards
Ravens -3
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Both quarterbacks are performing well on the ground, and Trevor Lawrence's ankle is improving. Lawrence had at least 15 rushing yards in six of his first eight games, with a median of 23.5.
The Ravens are not expected to be favored by less than -3, but they might close at -3.5, especially if the Jaguars can't get healthy. This is particularly true on their offensive line, in a game that could see a significant amount of running.
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Ravens vs Jaguars spread and Over/Under analysis
The Ravens were -3.5 on the look-ahead, reopened at -3, and have bounced between -3 and -3.5 heading into the weekend.
The Ravens will be at near full strength on Sunday, with the only question being starting safety Kyle Hamilton (questionable).
Meanwhile, the Jaguars are in much worse shape with health. They’ll be without a starting corner and safety while nine other players including three O-linemen (two starters) are very questionable.
The Jaguars boast one of the most effective rushing defenses in football, ranking second in success rate for the season. However, Baltimore and Jackson demonstrated last week that they can pass the ball effectively, even in windy conditions. Jackson threw for over 300 yards against the Rams in high wind conditions.
The total has also taken some Under money. It re-opened at 43.5 and has moved to as low as 41.5 as of Saturday afternoon. There are projected 20-mph sustained winds with gusts up to 40 mph, as well as an 18% chance of rain.
Ravens vs Jaguars betting trend to know
The Ravens have hit the team total Over in seven of their last 10 away games (+3.75 Units / 34% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Ravens vs. Jaguars.
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Ravens vs Jaguars game info
| Location: | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, December 17, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
| Opening odds: | Jaguars +3, O/U 43.5 |
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