The Week 12 odds open with an AFC North showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns at Huntington Bank Field for Thursday Night Football.
Pittsburgh already has an eye on the postseason with an 8-2 start, while Cleveland is already eyeing 2025 after its 2-8 run to open the year. Our Steelers vs. Browns predictions and top NFL picks expect Pittsburgh to get a win on the road.
Steelers vs Browns predictions
Early spread lean
Steelers -4.5 (-104 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Sure, this has the makings of a letdown spot for the Pittsburgh Steelers following their 18-16 home win over the Ravens on Sunday, but the Steelers are also 8-2 straight up and against the spread for the season.
This Steelers defense is legit with a third-ranked PFF grade while allowing the second-fewest points per game and sixth-lowest EPA per play. Pittsburgh has also been solid on offense with quarterback Russell Wilson a perfect 4-0 while putting up an average of 27.3 points per game.
It’s been a different story for the Cleveland Browns, who are just 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS for the season. Even with quarterback Jameis Winston airing it out for 395 yards, the Browns still lost 35-14 to the Saints on Sunday. Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski is also down to a career 33-41-3 ATS record following the loss.
The defense hasn’t packed the same punch, either. Cleveland has allowed an average of 28.7 points and the fourth-highest EPA per play across the past three games, after all.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 35.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
My analysis
This is the lowest total of the season for both the Steelers and Browns, and the two teams went Under the number with an even shorter 34.5-point total in Week 11 last year. Additionally, while I’m not expecting Cleveland to have oodles of success on offense, I do anticipate both teams combining to go Over the number Thursday.
As highlighted, the Steelers have found an offensive groove with Wilson, and the Browns haven’t been as stingy on defense. Plus, I value that Winston is turnover-prone and has already tossed three interceptions and lost a fumble through three games since taking over starting duties.
The Steelers have 19 takeaways and the fifth-highest turnover percentage (16.4%) through 10 games. Another solid showing could lead to defensive scores and/or shorter fields for the Pittsburgh offense.
Finally, I also value Steelers kicker Chris Boswell having the second-highest field-goal percentage (96.7%) because Browns kicker Dustin Hopkins was at an 83.3% mark prior to missing a pair of field goals in Week 11 to drop Cleveland to a 31st-ranked 70%.
Hopkins also connected on 90% of his field goals over the prior four seasons, so I’m not expecting him to leave so many points on the board again this week.
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Steelers vs Browns live odds
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