Super Bowl LIX takes place on Sunday, February 9 in New Orleans as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Philadelphia Eagles.
With plenty of star power on display, we look to an x-factor of sorts as we break down the Dallas Goedert odds.
Find out why we have the Eagles TE penciled in for a big receiving game in our NFL picks for February 9.
Dallas Goedert player prop picks
- Best bet
Over 51.5 receiving yards
(-105 at Caesars) - SGP pick
Over 51.5 receiving yards
Over 4.5 receptions
Barkley anytime TD
(+275 at Caesars)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Dallas Goedert Over 51.5 receiving yards
My best bet
Over 51.5 receiving yards (-105 at Caesars)
My analysis
Super Bowl Sunday is a day like no other. A day full of action, excitement, and promises that somebody on the field is about to write their name in the history books.
In terms of the Philadelphia Eagles, there is plenty of talk around Saquon Barkley, fresh from an amazing season, as well as quarterback Jalen Hurts and of course that defense, one of the very best in the NFL. However, there’s one man who data suggests could be a real difference maker for Philadelphia on Sunday and that man is Dallas Goedert.
Goedert has been an Eagles since being drafted in 2018, just months after they beat the Patriots to win Super Bowl LII, a game which saw an Eagles tight end, Zach Ertz, score the decisive final touchdown. The former South Dakota State man has been a consistent part of the team since being selected in the second round but comes into this after an injury-hit season that’s seen him suit up just 13 times.
You don’t need to worry about Goedert’s health though, since coming back in Week 18 he’s grown back into his role and has vanished all injury concerns. His receiving yard line for this game stands at 51.5, which is arguably the best prop bet of the entire Super Bowl.
Throughout a season riddled with injuries, we’ve seen Goedert average 52.6 receiving yards per game, marginally above his line for Sunday, and he’s surpassed 51.5 on six occasions this season. Most importantly those have come in recent weeks. In the four games since he returned from injury in Week 18, he’s covered that line on three occasions. He narrowly missed out by five yards in the Wild Card Round against the Packers but got back on track following that, and had a monster performance in the Conference Championship win over the Commanders, catching seven of eight attempts for 85 yards.
Goedert is getting hot just at the right time, which bodes well for two reasons. Firstly, the Kansas City Chiefs know, just like the rest of us, that Saquon Barkley is the danger man for the Eagles and Steve Spagnuolo would have spent the past two weeks with his team formulating ways to stop the running back. That could be bad news for Saquon but it’ll open up the game for his teammates and while AJ Brown will be dealing with the Chiefs’ secondary standout Trent McDuffie, there should be more favorable matchups for the likes of Goedert.
Then we need to consider the Chiefs' record against tight ends this season, which has been frankly very poor. No team in the NFL game up more yardage to the position in the regular season than the Chiefs, who allowed a staggering 1191 yards, an average of 70 yards per game. They also gave up an average of 11.2 yards per catch to the position.
Combine Goedert’s performances since returning from injury, with the Cheifs’ defense struggles against tight ends, as well as their attention being focused on stopping Saquon, and you can see why the Eagles’ tightend is primed for a big Sunday night.
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Dallas Goedert same-game parlay
Over 51.5 receiving yards
Over 4.5 receptions
Barkley anytime TD
As always we’re starting with our best bet, which is for Goedert to have Over 51.5 receiving yards. Then we’re doubling down on the 30-year-old by taking him to have Over 4.5 receptions. He’s played 13 times this season but has only had five or more receptions on four occasions. However, it’s worth remembering that he’s been dealing with a lot of injuries across the season and has seen targets, with five or more targets in eight of those 13 games. He also caught seven of eight targets against the Commanders last time out and is finding form. The Chiefs allowed an average of 6.2 receptions per game to tight ends in the regular season and Goedert will get the bulk of targets amongst the Eagles’ TE corps.
To wrap up the Same-Game Parlay we’re taking a touchdown scorer. However, as much as Goedert will have a big Sunday, this is a Chiefs defense that isn’t giving up many touchdowns to tight ends despite being torched by them in terms of yardage. So don’t expect Goedert to come up big in the red zone. He’s also had a disappointing year for touchdowns with just three to his name.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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