In a rematch of the Super Bowl from two years ago, the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles take the field at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans on Sunday for the 59th edition of the Big Game.
With both teams having contrasting play styles, it makes for an interesting matchup, especially when looking at it from a head-to-head perspective.
That’s why I’ve targeted three head-to-head props that provide better value than backing Patrick Mahomes or Saquon Barkley for the Super Bowl on Sunday, February 9.
Read on for my NFL picks for Sunday, February 9.
Best Super Bowl Head-to-Head Position Prop Picks
A.J Brown vs. Travis Kelce: Most receiving yards in the Super Bowl
While the Kansas City Chiefs offense certainly lends to throwing the ball more than the Philadelphia Eagles - which is why Mahomes is -240 to pass for more yards than Hurts - the Eagles are the team with the true No. 1 receiver.
A.J. Brown has the shortest odds to lead the game in receiving yards, with Travis Kelce (+300) and Xavier Worthy (+330) the two biggest favorites from the Chiefs. But Brown is the play here, with Brown being the best pass catcher taking the field and the Chiefs spreading the ball around more than Philly.
It helps his case that DeVonta Smith has been limited in practice with a hamstring injury leading up to the Super Bowl, which could hurt his production and help Brown’s - Smith (121 yards) has one more receiving yard than Brown (120 yards) in the playoffs thus far.
Another factor on Brown’s side is that the Eagles' defense is far better at stopping the pass than the Chiefs’ this season. Philly allowed the fewest passing yards per game in the regular season (174.2) and ranked third in EPA per dropback - it also gave up the fifth-fewest receiving yards to tight ends (40.9).
Meanwhile, Kansas City was middle of the pack in passing yards allowed (218.8) and EPA per dropback (15th). Brown is a game-changer at receiver, ranking second in yards per route run in the regular season (2.99).
With Steve Spagnuolo likely focusing in on stopping Saquon Barkley and the Eagles’ run game, it should help open things up for Brown in the Super Bowl.
Pick 1: Most receiving yards in the Super Bowl: A.J. Brown (+180 at Caesars)
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Patrick Mahomes vs. Jalen Hurts: Total pass plays in the Super Bowl
Patrick Mahomes is the overwhelming favorite to throw for more yards than Jalen Hurts, and I expect him to do so, making the best position related prop bet between these two the passing plays in the Super Bowl.
It’s set at 66.5, which seems slightly high, considering the pair averaged a combined 60.4 pass attempts per game in the regular season. In the playoffs, that number has dropped substantially to 48.5.
The Eagles also lean so heavily on the ground game that they threw just 448 pass attempts during the regular season, the fewest in the league by a wide margin. Nick Sirianni and Kellen Moore have ridden Barkley all season, so it’s hard to imagine they’ll shift game plans completely in the Super Bowl.
So, with Philly rarely airing it out other to an extreme, this prop would need Mahomes to put the ball in the air frequently to hit the Over. However, Vic Fangio’s defense is arguably the best in the league at stopping the pass, which should lead Andy Reid to rely even more on his run game than we’ve seen this season.
The Eagle's trio of cornerbacks - Darius Slay, Quinyon Mitchell, Cooper DeJean - are all allowing a QB rating no better than 83.9, which should also give Reid pause when it comes to putting the ball in the air at a high clip.
Even in the high-scoring Super Bowl between the Chiefs and Eagles two years ago, Mahomes and Hurts combined for less than 66.5 pass attempts (65), and that was with Hurts throwing it 38 times. He only hit 38 pass attempts once this season.
Pick 2: Total pass plays in the Super Bowl: Under 66.5 (-120 at Caesars)
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Zack Baun vs. Drue Tranquill: Most tackles and assists in the Super Bowl
One of the best stories of the NFL season is how the Eagles turned a hybrid pass rusher that fizzled out with the New Orleans Saints into an All-Pro off-ball linebacker. Credit to Fangio for moving Zack Baun and allowing him to be the signal-caller for his defense.
It turned Baun into a tackling machine in the regular season; he was sixth in the NFL in tackles (151), and that’s continued into the postseason. Baun is second in playoff tackles (26) and has the most of any player suiting up in the Super Bowl.
He’s coming off a 12-tackle performance against the Washington Commanders and had 10-plus tackles in eight of his 16 regular season games. On the season, including the playoffs, Baun has the most defensive stops in the league (76) and has 13 more than the next most.
The Chief's leading playoff tacklers - Drue Tranquill and Chamarri Conner - each have just 14 tackles in the postseason, and neither has had more than nine tackles in a game since September. Nick Bolton, the team’s leading tackler in the regular season (106), has just 11 in the playoffs.
Baun is the best linebacker taking the field on Sunday and should have every opportunity to lead this game in tackles.
Pick 3: Most tackles and assists in the Super Bowl: Zack Baun (+180 at Caesars)
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