When quarterback Brock Purdy lines up under center for the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl 58 vs. the Kansas City Chiefs, he'll be joining a select list of sophomore signal callers to start at QB in the Big Game. Only seven second-year QBs have ever started the Super Bowl, with Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals being the most recent in 2021.
The Brock Purdy odds have some of his NFL player props at their lowest level in weeks, so should bettors be fading the 49ers in the Super Bowl odds with a young QB at the helm? Let's take a look at the historical trends and evaluate their potential impact on the NFL odds for Super Bowl LVIII on Sunday, February 11.
Be sure to look at our free NFL picks featuring Super Bowl predictions for Chiefs vs. 49ers as well.
Best NFL bonuses
All Users
Instant ML bet payout
If your team goes up by 17+! Claim Now
New Users
Bet $5 on any wager
Get $158 in bonus bets! Claim Now
Eligible USA locations only. Also, see our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2024.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Super Bowl history of second-year quarterbacks
Interestingly, no rookie quarterback has ever made it to the Big Game, at least as a starter (Kordell Stewart took some snaps as a Swiss Army Knife-type player in Super Bowl XXX but Neil O'Donnell was the full-time QB for the Steelers). That leaves us to parse the records of the seven second-year starters to make it to the promised land.
| Quarterback | Result | Completions/Attempts | Pass Yards | TDs/INTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Marino (1984) | Loss, 38-16 | 29/50 | 318 | 1/2 |
| Kurt Warner (1999) | Win, 23-16 | 24/45 | 414 | 2/0 |
| Tom Brady (2001) | Win, 20-17 | 16/27 | 145 | 1/0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger (2005) | Win, 21-10 | 9/21 | 123 | 0/2 |
| Colin Kaepernick (2012) | Loss, 34-31 | 16/28 | 302 | 1/1 |
| Russell Wilson (2013) | Win, 43-8 | 18/25 | 206 | 2/0 |
| Joe Burrow (2021) | Loss, 23-20 | 22/33 | 263 | 1/0 |
Dan Marino was the first of the seven sophomore quarterbacks to earn a trip to the Super Bowl when he guided the 1984 Miami Dolphins against, ironically, the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl XIX. Joe Montana and the 49ers crushed the Dolphins, 38-16, and Marino somehow never made it back to the Big Game.
Next came Kurt Warner, whose "Greatest Show on Turf" St. Louis Rams outlasted the Tennessee Titans in Super Bowl XXXIV, 23-16. Two years later, Tom Brady famously led the New England Patriots to a dramatic upset of Warner's Rams. Warner and Brady are the only two QBs to win the Super Bowl in their first year as a starter, as both rode the bench in their official rookie seasons.
In the 2005 campaign, Ben Roethlisberger became the youngest quarterback (23) to win the Super Bowl when his Pittsburgh Steelers conquered the Seattle Seahawks. Seven years later, Colin Kaepernick would headman the Niners but could not surpass the Baltimore Ravens. Russell Wilson was in just his second year in the NFL when his Seahawks got over the hump vs. the Denver Broncos just one year after that San Francisco-Baltimore Super Bowl.
Then in 2021, Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals came up short vs. the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LVI to bring the overall record of sophomore passers in the Big Game to 4-3.
Brock Purdy passing prop predictions
Brock Purdy's career record vs. the Chiefs is 0-1, but he threw just nine passes in relief of Jimmy Garoppolo in Week 7 of the 2022 season, so that doesn't tell us much. However, using history as a barometer, we can try to get a gauge for what statistical performance we can expect from Purdy in Super Bowl LVIII. The most logical place to start is Purdy's passing yards prop, which is set at 240.5 to 245.5.
The average of the seven sophomores is 253 passing yards, but four had at least 263 yards in the Super Bowl, while three had 206 yards or lower. Two of the four winners in Brady and Roethlisberger actually had below 150 passing yards each.
Even if you think the San Francisco 49ers will beat the Kansas City Chiefs, that doesn't guarantee Purdy will outduel Patrick Mahomes through the air.
Purdy is averaging under 20 completions per game this year, postseason included, and takes on a Chiefs defense that was third in the regular season in yards allowed per completion (9.9). Their sixth-place rank in missed tackles surely helped, and their solid tackling should ensure that Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk don't turn short completions into big gains in Super Bowl LVIII.
Brock Purdy Super Bowl pick: Under 245.5 passing yards (-110 at FanDuel)
The passing touchdowns market paints a grim picture for Purdy, as five of the seven prior second-year signal callers threw for either one or zero touchdowns in the Super Bowl. Warner and Wilson were the only two QBs to get to two touchdowns.
Purdy will be throwing against a Chiefs defense that allowed 1.12 passing scores per game in the regular season (fourth in the NFL) and held Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson to one TD each this postseason, so this historical trend could very well continue.
Brock Purdy Super Bowl pick: Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (+110 at DraftKings)
When it comes to interceptions, four sophomore Super Bowl starters managed to avoid throwing one. Two of three less-fortunate QBs threw two picks apiece (Marino, Roethlisberger).
Based on his results from this year, a Niners loss in the Big Game would almost guarantee a Purdy interception. He threw at least one pick in all four games that he lost, including a disastrous four-INT day vs. the Ravens on Christmas Day.
Brock Purdy Super Bowl pick: Over 0.5 interceptions (+100 at Caesars)
Brock Purdy Super Bowl SGP
Brock Purdy Under 242.5 passing yards
Brock Purdy Under 1.5 passing touchdowns
Brock Purdy Over 0.5 interceptions
We're not getting the best of the Purdy passing yards line at Caesars at 242.5, but the market-best price on the interception prop offsets that a bit.
A wager of $5 or more on this 3-leg SGP will qualify you for Caesars' 58 million reward credit giveaway promotion — be sure to opt in and take advantage!
Brock Purdy Super Bowl MVP odds
The Super Bowl MVP odds are always a popular market, and this year is no different. Mahomes is a logical favorite even with the Chiefs holding as minor underdogs, as Purdy could easily be outshined by McCaffrey, who is the clear-cut third choice in the wagering.
Warner was the first sophomore to win Super Bowl MVP honors, and Brady followed it up two years later to become the only other second-year starter to accomplish the feat.
| Player |  |
 |
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Patrick Mahomes |
+125 | +140 | +125 | +135 |
 Brock Purdy |
+225 | +200 | +220 | +200 |
| Christian McCaffrey |
+475 | +450 | +450 | +475 |
| Travis Kelce |
+1,200 | +1,700 | +1,400 | +1,200 |
| Deebo Samuel |
+2,000 | +2,000 |
+3,500 | +2,500 |
| Isiah Pacheco |
+2,800 | +3,500 |
+3,500 | +3,000 |
| Rashee Rice |
+5,000 | +7,000 | +6,000 | +6,000 |
| George Kittle |
+6,000 | +7,000 | +8,000 | +6,000 |
| Brandon Aiyuk |
+6,000 | +4,500 | +5,000 | +5,000 |
| Nick Bosa |
+7,500 | +10,000 | +10,000 | +7,500 |
Odds as of February 1, 2024.
Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the 
to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.
