Super Bowl 58 is the Kansas City Chiefs' fourth Super Bowl appearance in the last five years, but this is the first time where their defense has carried them here.
While Patrick Mahomes and the offense have gotten most of the credit in the past, the Chiefs have been better on the defensive side of the ball this season, and Chris Jones is the anchor of this stop unit.
That said, being the biggest name on this K.C. defense also means that we're seeing some inflated Super Bowl player props when it comes to the latest Chris Jones odds. That means I'll be looking to fade the star defensive tackle in the Super Bowl odds.
Find out why with my best NFL picks for Jones at Super Bowl 58 on February 11.
For more Super Bowl predictions, make sure to check out our full Chiefs vs. 49ers predictions!
Chris Jones Super Bowl prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Chris Jones Super Bowl prop pick
Under 2.5 tackles + assists (-152)
Money has been wagered on the Under for this play, with the Under 2.5 initially priced at -115 for most of the week before shifting to -152. Despite this movement, the Under remains the favorable choice for this bet and offers solid value, particularly given Chris Jones's recent decline in effectiveness against the run.
The Kansas City Chiefs star is one of the top pass-rushing defensive tackles in the NFL, but while he continues to generate a decent amount of pressure, tackles haven't been showing up on the scoresheet. Jones didn't register a single tackle (assisted or solo) in the AFC Championship game against the Ravens and has now logged fewer than three total tackles in nine of his last 10 games.
The San Francisco 49ers run the ball at the third-highest rate in the league but many of their running plays attack the edge, making it tougher for Jones to make plays from the interior. Bet the Under 2.5 on his total tackles on Sunday.
If you think Jones will step up in a game of this magnitude, it makes more sense to consider betting him on the head-to-head matchup against Javon Hargrave. FanDuel has Jones installed at +164 to have more tackles + assists than Hargrave, but the 49ers' defensive tackle hasn't been any more productive than Jones.
Hargrave has logged 3+ total tackles just twice in his last seven games and has been held to a single tackle or none in four of those contests. In addition, the Chiefs have a better interior offensive line than the Niners.
Prop: Chris Jones Under 2.5 tackles + assists (-152 at FanDuel)
Not intended for use in MA.
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