Super Bowl First Touchdown Props: McCaffrey or Mahomes to Make It Happen

Prop bet #1: Pat stands tall

Let's break down who to bet from the Kansas City Chiefs roster to score first, starting with the most obvious candidate, Travis Kelce. Despite a real return to form in the playoffs, I’m not convinced he’ll score first. Odds of +650 scare me a lot considering that the San Francisco 49ers only gave up three touchdowns to TEs in the regular season, with only the Patriots allowing fewer. He’s also had more targets than Rashee Rice in both of the last two games and most likely will do again on Sunday, so we’ll go elsewhere.

That brings us to the Chiefs’ rushing attack. Given that the 49ers have allowed 159 rushing yards per game in the playoffs, second-highest in the postseason behind the Steelers, then it’s something to strongly consider. They allowed three rushing touchdowns in the NFC Conference Championship Game, with David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams all scoring on the ground. 

However, as much as I think Isiah Pacheco is a solid wager to score first at +600, I want somebody with far bigger odds. Step forward Patrick Lavon Mahomes II, at a monster price of +2,200.

I’ve been waiting for him to score a rushing TD in these playoffs and now we have the perfect opportunity. Mahomes hasn’t scored a rushing TD since Week 16 of last season and his last in the playoffs was the AFC Championship Game two seasons ago. 

This is a guy with five rushing TDs in 17 playoff games and I’m certain that drought comes to an end in this game, and hopefully with the first score. He’s had six rushes in each of the past two games and with the season on the line he’s more likely than ever to put himself on the line and rush if needed.

Given what we’ve seen from the 49ers' defense in the playoffs, I think there’s every chance we see Mahomes score in this game. The Patrick Mahomes odds of +2,200 to score first are simply too big to ignore.

Patrick Mahomes prop: First Touchdown (+2,200 at 888sport)

Prop bet #2: Chalk talk

This is arguably the least surprising pick possible, but we have to back the Christian McCaffrey odds for him to score the first touchdown of the game for San Francisco. The 49ers are 1.5-point favorites, and their most lethal player is CMC.

McCaffrey has had another ridiculous season and he’s found the endzone 25 times to date. Seven of those were receiving touchdowns but a huge 18 came on the ground, which just so happens to be where the Chiefs’ defense is weakest. They’ve performed well in the playoffs, averaging just 113 rushing yards against per game, and it’s only been Josh Allen to score a rushing TD on them (twice).

With CMC’s unique skillset, he’s the man who is most likely to open the scoring. He’s had a combined 37 carries in two playoff games so far, plus another 11 catches on 17 targets. In those two games, he’s scored four touchdowns, running in for a pair of TDs in both contests. He’s the 49ers’ main offensive weapon and it certainly wouldn’t be a shock to see him score first on Super Bowl Sunday. It’s worth considering as a wager despite being the shortest odds on the board at +400.

Christian McCaffrey prop: First Touchdown (+400 at 888sport)