Super Bowl Predictions: 3 Reasons the San Francisco 49ers Will Win Super Bowl LVIII

With the explosion of sports betting, there are endless ways to place NFL picks on Super Bowl LVIII between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers.

Super Bowl odds go way beyond the point spread and Over/Under total, with a laundry list of NFL props and oddsmakers squeezing out every drop of imagination to create new and engaging options for events on and off the field in Las Vegas this Sunday.

But what if you don’t care about those alternative NFL odds? What if you don’t know most of the players on the field? And what if you’ll spend the halftime show taking the dog for a walk?

This is the article for you.

I keep my Super Bowl predictions clean and quick, giving you three reasons why the San Francisco 49ers will win Super Bowl LVIII.

Three reasons why the 49ers will win Super Bowl LVIII

Weapons

Greek mythology tells the tale of the nine-headed Hydra, a monster that would grow a head back if it got one chopped off. The San Francisco 49ers offense is kind of the same thing: nullify one weapon and another will step up in its place.

San Francisco’s skill positions are loaded with Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel at receiver, George Kittle at tight end, and Christian McCaffrey at running back. Two of those guys — Samuel and McCaffrey — are extra special talents that can hurt you on the ground and through the air.

Fold those dynamic players into Kyle Shanahan’s playbook, which keeps defenses on edge with pre-snap motion and misdirection, and the Niners truly present a “pick your poison” proposition to opponents. San Francisco’s offensive depth also differs from what the Kansas City Chiefs bring to the table in Super Bowl LVIII.

Kansas City undoubtedly has the edge at quarterback, with Patrick Mahomes well beyond Brock Purdy, but KC is very dependent on TE Travis Kelce to do damage. Beyond him, rookie WR Rashee Rice and RB Isiah Pacheco seem like the only other guys Mahomes trusts.

Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has his work cut out for him when it comes to game planning for the 49ers weapons. If he sells out to stop the run, Aiyuk, Samuel, and Kittle will be a pain in the ass in man-to-man matchups. Try to take away the pass and CMC will run up and down the Kansas City defense for 60 minutes.

That versatility made San Francisco the top-rated attack in most advanced metrics this season, rating No.1 in EPA per play and DVOA — the two Holy Grail analytics — along with an NFL-best 51.6% success rate per play (which measures down-to-down efficiency).

Running game

Christian McCaffrey is the crown jewel of the Niners’ attack and the perfect fit for Shanahan’s offense.

Since being traded to the 49ers in October of last season (a move that made every other team sick to their stomach), CMC has blossomed into the best offensive player on the planet.

He’s scored 38 total touchdowns in 32 games overall, including four touchdowns in San Francisco’s two playoff outings this year. McCaffrey is a dual-threat RB but his blend of speed, agility, and power makes him a dangerous runner, boosting San Francisco to the top of the advanced rushing metrics (No. 1 in EPA per handoff, success rate per run, and fourth in yards per carry — 4.8).

McCaffrey will shoulder the bulk of the load in Super Bowl LVIII, facing a Chiefs defense that isn’t great at slowing down the run. Kansas City finished 28th in EPA allowed per handoff and rated dead last in run-stop win rate at ESPN while giving up 4.5 yards per carry.

The Chiefs are also down a significant cog on their defensive line, with defensive end Charles Omenihu sidelined with a torn ACL. He was KC’s most versatile lineman, owning a career-high 17 tackles for a loss, and was huge against the run in the postseason.

Not only does a strong running effort chip away at the Chiefs’ greatest weakness, but it also allows the 49ers to play possession football. Shanahan’s pre-snap motion chews up the most play clock in the league, making the Niners the slowest tempo in terms of second per play.

Every second San Francisco has the ball is a second that Mahomes doesn’t. That gives the Niners' defense a shot in the arm and forces the Chiefs offense to go pass-heavy and one-dimensional when they touch the ball.

Health

The football schedule is a battle of attrition, and no team knows this better than the 49ers.

San Francisco has seen its Super Bowl hopes shrivel up and die due to injuries in years past - none more painful than last season’s NFC title game, in which Purdy was forced to play with a torn shoulder.

For a while, it seemed like the franchise had pissed off an old gypsy lady — à la “Drag Me To Hell” — but this once-snake-bitten team has avoided the injury bug for most of 2023-24.

There are a few names nursing bumps and bruises heading into game week, but the Niners will have the core of the team good to go with fresher legs than the Chiefs, given San Francisco enjoyed an opening-round bye and this will be KC’s fourth postseason game.

Kansas City has two big injuries at key positions on both sides of the ball. Standout guard Joe Thuney is a long shot to play Sunday due to a pectoral injury and the defense will be without Omenihu, taking teeth out of this vaunted pass rush.

That leaves Kansas City to rely on backups and untested players in the biggest game of the year, and you can be sure Shanahan and defensive coordinator Steve Wilks will go after those replacements early and often.

San Fran fans have to be excited to finally see the full potential of this roster, but it also means no excuses for anything but a win on Sunday.

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