Travis Kelce and the Kansas City Chiefs will try to win their fourth Super Bowl in six years as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday night.
The superstar tight end is 35 years old but he still has plenty left in the tank, which is why I'm taking a good look at the Travis Kelce odds for his receptions prop.
See why I'm backing the future Hall of Famer with my favorite player prop and same-game play for Super Bowl 59.
Travis Kelce player prop picks
- Best bet
Kelce Over 6.5 receptions
(+120 at Caesars) - SGP pick
Kelce Over 6.5 receptions
Mahomes Over 36.5 passing attempts
Kelce anytime touchdown
(+700 at Caesars)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Travis Kelce O/U 6.5 receptions
My best bet
Travis Kelce Over 6.5 receptions (+120 at Caesars)
My analysis
Some football fans were too quick to ship Travis Kelce off to the old folks' home after he began the season with just eight total catches for 69 yards through the first three games.
However, the Kansas City Chiefs offense eventually found its footing and Kelce has racked up 7+ catches in eight of his last 15 contests. That includes the Divisional Round of the playoffs when he reeled in seven catches for 117 yards and a score against Houston.
The Philadelphia Eagles allowed the fourth-fewest receptions to tight ends during the regular season. When they faced a tight-end-heavy Baltimore attack in Week 13, they allowed nine catches for 96 yards to tight ends.
Philly also gave up nine catches against the Rams TEs in the Divisional Round before surrendering 14 catches for 138 yards to Commanders TEs in the NFC Championship.
Although the Eagles have allowed the fewest explosive pass plays in the NFL, Kansas City's attack prefers to move the chains with short and intermediate throws. Philadelphia has allowed 7.5 receptions per game to slot receivers this season (9th most), while Kelce leads the Chiefs with 272 routes run in the slot and 40 slot receptions.
Beyond the analytics, Kelce is simply "that guy" for a Chiefs offense that doesn't have a true No. 1 wide receiver. When the chips are down and they need a big catch, I do not doubt that Patrick Mahomes will be looking to his veteran tight end. After all, in his previous four Super Bowls, Kelce has racked up 31 receptions for 350 yards.
Kelce isn’t as explosive as he used to be, which makes me hesitant to play his yards prop (O/U 61.5), but I’ll still take the Over 6.5 receptions at plus money.
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Travis Kelce same-game parlay
Travis Kelce Over 7.5 receptions
Patrick Mahomes Over 36.5 passing attempts
Travis Kelce anytime touchdown
Even though Mahomes has barely thrown the ball in the playoffs, he still racked up at least 37 pass attempts in nine of his last 10 regular season games. I don't expect Kareem Hunt and Isiah Pacheco to have much success running against this elite Eagles defense, so count on the Chiefs to rely on a high volume of shorter passes.
Since I'm expecting plenty of throws from Mahomes and lots of receptions for Kelce, it also makes sense to include his anytime TD prop in this SGP. After all, if you were Mahomes, who else would you look to target in the red zone?
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