Thursday Night Football games already produce some weird results. I can only imagine the chaos in Week 9 with the New York Jets hosting the Houston Texans on Halloween.
This All Hallows’ Eve encounter has an Over/Under total of 42 points, so the “anytime touchdown” odds have just four players listed below +200 and three of them are Jets. That has a lot to do with Houston’s injuries at wide receiver, leaving oddsmakers to wonder which Texan can step up and score on TNF.
I dig through this popular prop option and the matchups for Thursday Night Football, giving my best NFL picks and Texans vs. Jets predictions for anytime touchdown bets on October 31.
Texans anytime touchdown pick
Tank Dell anytime touchdown
+200 at FanDuel
With Stefon Diggs out and Nico Collins still on IR, Tank Dell enters Week 9 as the Houston Texans’ WR1.
That has this touchdown price tag at +200 tonight, which is actually better than the last two weeks in which Dell had respective TD Anytime odds of +180 and +190. And even before Houston was missing those top targets, Dell was a popular option for QB C.J. Stroud in the red zone.
Dell has drawn seven red zone targets (tied with Collins), bringing in four of those passes for two touchdowns inside the 20-yard line. One of those scores came on a seven-yard TD strike in the win over Indianapolis last weekend.
Dell does his best work versus man-to-man coverage, ranking Top 25 among all WRs versus the scheme, and will face a lot of it on Thursday with the New York Jets implementing man at one of the higher rates in the NFL. That Jets secondary will also be missing both starting safeties in Week 9.
With options limited for Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, Dell will be option No. 1 in the passing game, and don’t be surprised if the speedy 5-foot-10 WR gets a few carries as well.
Player projections for Dell are pretty good, especially when you see some of those models on par with players above him in the touchdown anytime odds. My forecast was 0.38 TDs, which should have this prop around +163 and we see some books at +170. Given the state of the Texans' receiving corps and the Jets' secondary, +200 feels like a steal.
Jets anytime touchdown pick
Garrett Wilson anytime touchdown
+190 at FanDuel
Garrett Wilson is the third Jet on the TD anytime board, priced at +190 behind Breece Hall (-130) and Davante Adams (+155).
Sure, Aaron Rodgers has a soft spot for Adams, but Wilson is still the top receiving option. And with Rodgers’ other BFF and New York’s top TD scorer in Allan Lazard out, I don’t get why Wilson is paying out at almost 2/1.
He’s the most popular red-zone option, catching eight of 15 targets for three RZ touchdowns, and is also a big play threat to score, ranked among the best WRs on routes of 20-plus yards while sitting seventh in total yards after the catch.
He faces a Texans stop unit that has allowed 23 passing plays of 20 yards or more, including six for 40-plus. Oh, and Houston is down a starting safety as well with Jimmy Ward sidelined (groin). Houston rates 30th in defensive red-zone touchdown rate on the season (70%) and that number has gotten even higher, jumping to 80% the past three weeks.
Player models have Wilson’s touchdown forecast as high as 0.5 with my number coming in just above 0.4. That should have his touchdown anytime price around +150, which is where some other shops have this prop. We’ll trick-or-treat for the best odds, grabbing +190.
Not intended for use in MA.
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