Ashton Jeanty looks to strengthen his Heisman campaign as the Boise State Broncos (6-1) gun for the playoffs with a home game against the San Diego State Aztecs (3-4) in Week 10.
The Broncos are red-hot with five straight victories, including last week’s 29-24 road win over UNLV, but cannot overlook a feisty Aztecs team that is 2-0 in Mountain West play.
See why my San Diego State vs. Boise State predictions think the Aztecs will hang tough in my college football picks for Friday, November 1, which also include an Ashton Jeanty prop.
San Diego State vs Boise State prediction and best bet
My best bet
San Diego State +23.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
My analysis
This isn’t a great spot for the Boise State Broncos as it is a letdown opportunity after last week’s massive win over UNLV. The Broncos are riding high with five straight wins and could certainly challenge for a playoff spot the way things are going, but this is a lot of points to be laying against a San Diego State Aztecs team that is playing some pretty good football.
If the Broncos want to be a playoff team, they’ll need to shore up some things on the defensive side of the ball. They rank just 103rd in EPA per play and 125th in explosiveness, struggling to defend the run (116th in EPA per rush, 128th in rushing explosiveness) while allowing too many big pass plays (104th in passing explosiveness).
They played well enough on that side of the ball in holding the Rebels to 23 points, but I’ll need to see it on a weekly basis before becoming a believer. It makes sense that the coaching staff would formulate an effective game plan in their biggest test of the regular season, but a dropoff could always be around the corner in a letdown spot.
The Aztecs were supposed to be miserable in Year 1 of the Sean Lewis era. That simply hasn’t been the case as they’re bowl-hunting and 2-0 in conference play.
The defense has been on point, holding each of its last three opponents below 385 total yards. It has allowed only one opponent to record more than 5.5 yards per play all year, so there are hopes that SDSU can at least slow down a terrific Boise offense.
The Aztecs should be able to stuff the box to help reinforce the rush defense. The secondary has been superb (20th in passing success rate, 29th in PFF’s coverage grade) and should match up fine against a Boise receiving group that has been simply adequate. Go-to target Cam Camper was hobbled last week and therefore likely will not be 100% for this contest, meaning the Broncos’ top two playmakers are playing hurt (more on Ashton Jeanty in a bit).
Give me the points. SDSU typically plays in close games, as each of its last four games has been decided by three points or fewer.
Ashton Jeanty pick: Elbow rub
My best bet
Under 186.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
One of the takeaways from the Broncos’ win over UNLV a week ago is that Ashton Jeanty injured his elbow and was visibly playing at less than 100% for the rest of the contest.
It’s an injury that shouldn’t go overlooked or under-discussed as it neutralized one of his best weapons, the stiff arm, and he went for a season-low 3.9 yards per carry on 33 mostly ineffective rush attempts.
I’ll take his Under against an Aztecs defense that has been playing well.
San Diego State vs Boise State same-game parlay (SGP)
San Diego State +22.5
Ja’Shaun Poke Over 44.5 receiving yards
Matt Lauter Over 44.5 receiving yards
If you’ve been following Lewis teams for any amount of time, you know that his WR1 usually produces some insane stat lines. That hasn’t been the case during his first year in San Diego due to a struggling passing attack with a true freshman quarterback, but that’s beginning to turn.
Slot receiver Ja’Shaun Poke, who was with Lewis at a previous stop at Kent State, has emerged as a reliable weapon. The speedster leads the Aztecs in targets (21), receptions (18), and receiving yards (140) in the last two games, and yet his receiving yardage prop can be had in the low-40s.
No Boise wide receiver has 160 receiving yards other than volume hog Cam Camper (477). He was visibly hobbled a week ago, playing just 13 pass snaps and handling three targets in the Broncos’ biggest game of the season to date. Who steps up in his absence?
It’s tight end Matt Lauter, who has been the second target in the passing game, racking up 297 yards and four touchdowns. He led the team with nine targets against UNLV, six more than any receiver on the team. That volume will translate, and his receiving yardage prop is simply too low.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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San Diego State vs Boise State odds
San Diego State vs Boise State live odds
San Diego State vs Boise State opening odds
- San Diego State vs. Boise State spread: Boise State -23.5
- San Diego State vs. Boise State moneyline: San Diego State +1,100, Boise State -2,500
- San Diego State vs. Boise State Over/Under: 57.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
San Diego State vs Boise State spread and Over/Under analysis
- San Diego State is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings between these two schools.
- The Aztecs have been road warriors, covering the spread in five of their last six away games. They are also 5-0 ATS in their last five conference games.
- Boise State has played to the Over, going 8-2 O/U in its last 10 games.
San Diego State vs Boise State betting trend to know
The Aztecs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games. Find more college football betting trends for San Diego State vs Boise State.
San Diego State vs Boise State game info
| Location: | Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID |
| Date: | Friday, 11-1-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
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