It's Week 15 and the NFL anytime touchdown props are in. It's been a case of a week-too-early for three straight weeks but we're getting going this Sunday.
I'm taking Anthony Richardson off the bye and with fresh wheels, getting the third-string running back in New York to score, and taking a slice of the biggest total of the year in Detroit.
These are my three favorite NFL picks for Week 15.
Week 15 touchdown props
- Richardson anytime TD (+185 at DraftKings)
- Davis anytime TD (+220 at FanDuel)
- Patrick anytime TD (+400 at FanDuel)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Best Week 15 TD props
TD Prop bet #1: Anthony Richardson anytime TD
Best odds: +185 at DraftKings
It might be my third trip on the Anthony Richardson TD wagon, but if I can keep getting +185 for the poor-passing quarterback to score his fourth rushing TD since taking his starting job back.
The second-year signal-caller is coming off the bye and might have to use his legs more this week vs. the Denver Broncos who own the league’s best pass defense, per EPA/dropback. Some injuries to the Indy O-line (LT out for sure and C questionable) could also force Richardson to flee more often on Sunday.
The Indianapolis Colts’ QB has an impressive 10 red-zone carries over his last three games (three rushing TDs) while running back Jonathan Taylor has been given 18 RZ carries over that stretch and has failed to cross the goal line. I’m buying this QB TD to +150/155 in this matchup.
TD Prop bet #2: Isaiah Davis anytime TD
Best odds: +220 at FanDuel
Isaiah Davis had 16 touches for 67 yards and a TD last week for the New York Jets and got four red-zone opportunities compared to Braelon Allen, who had 11 carries and just two RZ carries/targets. Breece Hall missed practice again on Thursday and it’s setting up for another Davis/Allen game for the Jets who are favored vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars.
There is some early risk on this as Hall could play (unlikely) and David and Allen are splitting snaps. But it looks like Davis will get the important snaps near the goal line and his price is falling quickly. FanDuel is posting a +220 TD price as of Friday and if Hall sits, this could close shorter than +150, especially with the Jags allowing the second most TDs to opposing RBs in the league.
Hall has missed five straight practices and Week 14. He is looking more doubtful than probable which is great news for Allen who was a bigger piece of the New York offense last week than many expected.
TD Prop bet #3: Tim Patrick anytime TD
Best odds: +400 at FanDuel
Buffalo vs. Detroit has the largest total of the year at a whopping 54.5. Points will be scored inside Ford Field Sunday afternoon and I’m betting Tim Patrick to get a TD again at +400 at FanDuel. It’s a big price for a game that is expected to see 7+ TDs and for a receiver who had two scores in Week 14.
It’s a big price for a game that is expected to see 7+ TDs and for a receiver who had two scores in Week 14. Patrick is not running as many routes as Jameson Williams but still has a near-75% route share with Kalif Raymond on IR. He caught both of his red-zone targets for scores last week and has seen an RZ target in four consecutive games. Only eight other WRs have seen more RZ targets than Patrick’s five over that stretch which is also one more than Amon-Ra St.Brown’s four.
Patrick’s usage has increased since Week 10 and he is getting targeted on 1 of 5 routes run while getting legit looks near the goal line. The Buffalo Bills defense can’t get off the field and Matthew Stafford, who threw for 160 yards and no TDs on TNF, put up 320 passing yards and two scores vs the Bills in Week 14. Goff is going to carve up the Bills secondary indoors especially with three starters in the secondary (Damar Hamlin, Taylor Rapp, and Rasul Douglas) all DNP at practice on Thursday.
Not intended for use in MA.
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