Flyers vs Capitals Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Philly Doesn't Let Washington Capitalize

It’s a Metropolitan showdown at Capital One Arena between the Philadelphia Flyers and Washington Capitals on Friday, and it’s the visiting Flyers trading as a short road favorite in the NHL odds.

The Flyers are expected to be without leading-scorer Travis Konecny (upper body) again Friday, and injuries come part and parcel with the Capitals, too. A number of NHL player props have been offset by Washington regulars, either already ruled out or questionable for Friday’s contest.

Here is our breakdown with free NHL picks for the Flyers vs. Capitals divisional clash on Friday, March 1.

Flyers vs Capitals odds

Flyers vs Capitals predictions

I’m expecting this to be a tight, low-scoring game Friday. The Philadelphia Flyers continue to drive possession and play well at five-on-five with a 52.6 Corsi For percentage, 53.5 goals for percentage, and 53.2 expected goals for percentage through 10 games out of the All-Star break. Philly has turned it into a 6-3-1 run and remains a fixture in the Eastern Conference playoff picture.

The Washington Capitals are on the outside looking in, but they’re also showing improvement with respective 50.8%, 48.1%, and 50.1% marks since the break, and those metrics are well above their 46.2%, 43.2%, and 45.9% numbers prior to the midseason pause. Washington has gone 5-4-2 and still has a puncher’s chance to punch a postseason ticket.

I just have my doubts that the Capitals can continue to tick the wins column because they rank second in 5-on-5 team shooting percentage (11.0%) and third in power-play percentage (34.5%) during the last 11 games. A quick peek at the cast of characters jumping the boards isn’t a who’s who of gifted scorers, and I’m expecting them to dip closer to their respective 7.7% and 14.5% ratios before the break.

The statistical correction kicking in against the Flyers would be fitting, too.

Philadelphia paces the league in penalty-kill percentage (86.2%) and has allowed the third-fewest shots per game (27.9). No. 1 goalie Samuel Ersson has been the definition of hit-or-miss this season, but he’s in a mini-groove right now with two goals or fewer against in each of his past three starts with a .926 save percentage. Additionally, the 24-year-old Swede has been better on the road all season.

Finally, even with the recent uptick in PP efficiency and shooting percentage, the Capitals still check out 30th in my offense ratings. So, in turn, I expect Philly to hold Washington in check Friday.

My best bet: Capitals Under 2.5 goals (+135 at Pinnacle)

Flyers vs Capitals same-game parlay

Flyers moneyline

Capitals Under 2.5 goals

Tyson Foerster Over 0.5 points

30% boost available

+350 +460 at bet365

The Philadelphia moneyline and Washington Under 2.5 goals are correlated legs in this same-game parlay. As discussed, the Caps have negative scoring regression ahead, and the Flyers are a tough opponent at 5-on-5 and while shorthanded. 

Turning to the final leg, Tyson Foerster is skating in a scoring role and with the No. 1 power-play unit, and he’s found the scoresheet in all three games since returning from a lower-body injury. He’s paced the Flyers in individual expected goals (1.21), individual high-danger scoring chances (5) and leads Philly forwards in on-ice expected goals (3.71) since his return and also ranks No. 1 on the club with a 59.6 CF%.

Placing this wager through bet365 also presents an edge because it’s priced at just +325 at DraftKings. The +350 bet365 odds present a positive expected value of 6% over the DraftKings number.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Flyers vs Capitals moneyline and Over/Under analysis

There hasn’t been a major adjustment to this moneyline through Pinnacle or bet365. I do anticipate the Flyers seeing the majority of the betting action, and Philly carrying a higher vig by puck drop. As a result, interested Washington bettors could benefit from being patient, while Philly backers should act now.

FanDuel has this total set at 5.5, while the majority of sportsbooks are listing it at 6. There also hasn’t been notable movement to the odds, with bet365 and Sports Interaction both still at their opening prices as of Friday morning. Unlike the moneyline, I don’t expect there to be enough volume on either side of this total for it to see notable movement.

Flyers vs Capitals betting trend to know

Washington has only won five of its past 15 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Flyers vs. Capitals.

Flyers vs Capitals game info

Flyers vs Capitals latest injuries

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