The NHL playoffs continue this evening as the Dallas Stars host the Vegas Golden Knights in Game 5 of this first-round series. NHL odds have Dallas as a moderate –154 favorite while the total sits at 5.5 or 6, depending on the book.
Find out which side I’m betting on in my Golden Knights vs. Stars predictions and NHL picks for May 1.
Golden Knights vs Stars prediction
My best bet
Stars -1.5 (+167 at Pinnacle)
My analysis
After dropping the first two games of this series, the Dallas Stars have completely regained control with two straight road victories.
Going back to the American Airlines Center provides the Stars with a chance to take their first lead in the series, and I believe they will do just that. Goaltender Jake Oettinger has been dominant over the past three games, allowing just two goals in each while posting a .935 SV% and 1.85 GAA.
This hot streak is a continuation of a dominating end to the regular season. Over his past 12 starts, Oettinger is 9-3 with a commanding .935 SV% and 1.72 GAA.
Now, it certainly helps his cause that Dallas’ blue line is playing tremendously. Among the 16 playoff teams this postseason, the Stars rank first in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).
The Stars are also doing a tremendous job in generating high-danger scoring chances, ranking sixth in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). With this elite two-way play, it's not shocking that they also sit third in expected goal differential per 60 minutes.
By comparison, the Vegas Golden Knights rate lower than Dallas in each of those three key analytical categories. Netminder Logan Thompson was the primary reason for the Knights jumping out to a 2-0 series lead, but he has now surrendered three goals in back-to-back losses.
The second of those losses came by a two-goal differential, and I believe a similar result will be in store as the Golden Knights head back on the road.
Golden Knights vs Stars same-game parlay (SGP)
Stars -1.5
Wyatt Johnston anytime goalscorer
If we are backing Dallas to win by multiple goals, then we need some of its skaters to find the back of the net. Enter Wyatt Johnston, who has scored three goals over the past two games.
The 20-year-old has been Dallas’ best forward in this series by a pretty wide margin, which is incredible given that he can’t even legally buy a beer in Texas yet. Not only does Johnston lead the Stars in expected goals per 60 minutes, but he ranks fourth among all playoff skaters in that category.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Golden Knights vs Stars odds
Golden Knights vs Stars live odds
Golden Knights vs Stars opening odds
- Puck line: Vegas +1.5 (-192) | Dallas -1.5 (+168)
- Moneyline: Vegas +136 | Dallas -154
- Over/Under: Over 6 (+106) | Under 6 (-121)
Golden Knights vs Stars moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Dallas opened as a –154 favorite and remains at that price at the time of writing.
- Expect the market to move this line in the Stars’ direction, given the recent two games and their home-ice advantage.
- Given that there have been five or fewer total goals scored in 17 of the past 24 meetings between these two teams, I project that it is more likely that this market closes at 5.5.
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Golden Knights vs Stars trend
13 of Dallas’ past 16 wins have come by at least a two-goal differential. Find more NHL betting trends for Golden Knights vs. Stars.
Golden Knights vs Stars game info
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-1-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SN360, ESPN |
Golden Knights vs Stars latest injuries
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