The Toronto Maple Leafs hope to bounce back against the St. Louis Blues tonight with an inspiring effort against the team that fired their head coach.
The NHL Odds heavily favor Toronto, and my Maple Leafs vs. Blues predictions are betting on the power play to propel the Buds in a bounce-back performance.
Find out why in my free NHL picks for this October 24 matchup.
Maple Leafs vs Blues prediction
My Leafs pick
Mitch Marner Over 0.5 power-play points (+165 at Sports Interaction)
My Leafs analysis
It’s no secret that the Toronto Maple Leafs have struggled on the power play to start the season, converting at a lowly 13%. However, a matchup against a struggling St. Louis Blues penalty kill may be what the Buds need to right the ship.
Last season, Toronto had a 24% success rate on the PP. This year, however, it’s been a struggle to find the back of the net on the man advantage, scoring just three times on 23 opportunities. That will change at some point as the Leafs’ personnel is too skilled, especially since their power play generates the fifth-most high-danger chances per 60 minutes, per Natural Stat Trick.
That won’t bode well for the St. Louis penalty kill, which ranks 27th in the NHL at a lousy 70% success rate while allowing four goals in their last four games. This matches up with the underlying numbers where the Blues are giving up a lot of quality chances, allowing the sixth-most goals and fifth-most expected goals on the PK.
This is a good spot for the Leafs' power play to make the best of those high-danger looks.
Enter Mitch Marner.
The Maple Leafs power play runs through two players, Marner and Auston Matthews. Both have factored into all three goals on the man-advantage so far for the Buds this season. I prefer Marner in this spot. The Leafs winger leads the team over the last two seasons in power-play points (0.42 per game), factoring into 52% of the total goals despite missing 15 games.
In other words, if the Leafs are going to break through on the power play tonight, there’s a better than 50% chance Marner factors into it.
Additionally, he has picked up power-play points in back-to-back meetings against the Blues and has four points in the last six contests against them.
Maple Leafs vs Blues same-game parlay (SGP)
William Nylander anytime goal
William Nylander 3+ shots on goal
Maple Leafs moneyline
I’m feeling a William Nylander anytime goal tonight. He leads the team with five goals and has tallied in five straight games against the Blues. This could be aided by the power play finding its groove tonight, as Nylander has 20 power-play goals over the last two years.
We’ll stick with the Nylander theme with the second leg and take him to record 3+ shots on goal tonight. He’s averaged three shots per game this season and recorded 3+ in four straight before the Columbus debacle. He should bounce back tonight and return to shooting with authority as the main trigger-man on that John Tavares-less second line.
Finally, we’ll finish up the parlay with a Maple Leafs moneyline victory. The Buds desperately need a bounce-back performance after the awful game in Ohio, and St. Louis is without its best offensive producer in Robert Thomas.
Plus, I like the revenge narrative here with Craig Berube taking on his old team. I’d be shocked if the Leafs didn't step up for him tonight and win the hockey game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Maple Leafs vs Blues odds
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Maple Leafs vs Blues trend
The Leafs have won five of the last seven meetings against the Blues. Find more NHL betting trends between the Toronto Maple Leafs and St. Louis Blues. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Blues.
How to watch Maple Leafs vs Blues
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Thursday, 10-24-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN4 |
Maple Leafs vs Blues latest injuries
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