Maple Leafs vs. Bruins Prop Picks and Best Bets: Marner's Playoff Struggles Continue

Prop bet #1: Beantown beaters

Let’s not overthink this. With how the entire series has played out and the performance of both starters, this is a dead-Under game. But with books moving the Under 5.5 from +100 to now -130, hitting a team total Under 2.5 is the better route for Game 7.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have scored just 12 goals in eight games vs. Jeremy Swayman but are paying -115 on their team total Under 2.5 thanks to being a +115 underdog on the moneyline combined with the low total. 

The real value, in my opinion, is with the Boston Bruins' team total Under 2.5 at +125. Boston is a little short on the ML for what is essentially going to be a sixth straight one- or two-goal game.

Since the Leafs have gone with Joseph Woll, the Bruins have managed just two goals on 54 shots. David Pastrnak is getting called out for his lack of production, while Brad Marchand has gone pointless since the move to Woll.

There's a good chance neither team hits three goals tonight. Toronto has changed its makeup with Auston Matthews out, and its defensive play has never looked better.

This +125 is also the best price on the board, with some books at +100.     

Bruins team total prop: Under 2.5 (+125 at BET99)

Prop bet #2: Timid twenty-minute total

Nobody wants to make a mistake in Game 7, and that'll hold even more true in the early goings. Scoring in general has been hard to come by in the later games of the series, but tonight’s first period could easily be a scoreless affair. 

The first period Under 1.5 goals is -135 at BET99, which is the best price on the board. Some books are at -150, which is where I’m off this Under 1.5. The massive swing in the juice for the full game Under isn’t fully priced into this -135 price tag at BET99.

The first frame is going to be a very cat-and-mouse 20 minutes. There'll be a ton of puck dumps, quick changes, and likely very few penalties called, as the referees will let the boys play.  

If you can’t get this price and are looking at -145 or worse, I think the best pivot is to the first-period tie at +160. The likely score will be 0-0, which is what bettors have seen over the three most recent playoff games — including Game 6 of this series. Toronto and Boston have been tied in three of the last four first periods in the series. 

The longer a playoff series goes, the more probable the Under is — especially early in the game, with teams playing very cautiously offensively.

First-period prop: Under 1.5 (-135 at BET99)

Prop bet #3: Mini Mitch

It sounds like Auston Matthews wants in the lineup tonight but is likely at less than 100%. He was at this morning’s skate and participated in drills, which is encouraging for his participation, but it certainly makes things cloudy regarding the Leafs' projected lines and prop values. 

One thing that can be confirmed is the struggles this Toronto offense has had vs. Swayman with and without AM34. The Boston goalie has seen the Buds eight times this year and has given up just 12 total goals. He does have two losses, the 2-1 loss in Game 6 and the 2-1 overtime loss in Game 5. The Leafs might be winning, but they’re still not scoring. 

Mitch Marner is paying +155 to go pointless which is a better Under to play than William Nylander Under 0.5 points at +160. Marner's open-ice style of hockey translates terribly in playoff games, and he's gone pointless in three of six.

The Toronto power play is also horrific, so the chances of a point with the man advantage are slim. There is also a case where Marner is paired with Matthews, who might not be skating well, or Marner could be moved to another line, which would also lower his stock. 

If you’re a Leaf fan and looking for a way to fade the Leafs at plus money without actively cheering against them, the Marner Under 0.5 points at +155 is the best route.

Mitch Marner prop: Under 0.5 points (+155 at BET99)