Maple Leafs vs Capitals Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Soft Toronto Kill Sets Stage for Ovechkin

We’ve got three games on the NHL betting slate tonight, including a marquee matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Washington Capitals.

The NHL odds suggest the Maple Leafs should roll tonight, but a suddenly hot Capitals power play may have something to say about it. 

Find out why in my free NHL picks for this Maple Leafs vs. Capitals matchup on Wednesday, March 20.

Maple Leafs vs Capitals odds

Maple Leafs vs Capitals predictions

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Washington Capitals get set for another clash between two of the best snipers in the game in Auston Matthews and Alex Ovechkin.

Matthews is likely heading toward another Rocket Richard trophy this year while “The Great 8” has shown a decline in his goal-scoring prowess for the first time in his career with “just” 20 goals to this point in the season.

However, Ovi might be riding a hot stick after a two-goal game in his last outing against the Flames. In fact, both of those goals came on the power play, a spot where Ovechkin has excelled over his Hall of Fame career.

Perhaps it’s a sign of good things to come for the Caps star winger as the team finds itself in the midst of a playoff race. A big reason for this late season surge has been a power play that has operated at a 28% clip over the month of March. This pairs well with a struggling Maple Leafs penalty kill, which has allowed six goals over their last five games, killing off just 73% of their penalties.

A big reason for the Leafs’ struggles of late has been the absence of two of their top penalty killers, Mitch Marner and Calle Jarnkrok, both of whom will not suit up in tonight’s game against Washington.

Thus, I think fading the Leafs’ PK and backing the Capitals’ power play feels like a good value play tonight, and there’s nobody more deadly on the Caps man-advantage than Ovi himself, who is getting +210 odds to record a power-play point.

Ovechkin leads Washington with 23 points on the power play, with six of them coming in the month of March. Not to mention the fact that one of Ovi’s 10 power play goals this year came against Toronto in their lone earlier meeting this season back on October 24.

My best bet: Alex Ovechkin Over 0.5 power-play points (+210 at Sports Interaction)

Maple Leafs vs Capitals same-game parlay

Maple Leafs to score first

Over 5.5

Maple Leafs Over 2.5 goals

+210 at Sports Interaction

For Leg 1 of my same-game parlay, I’ll take the Leafs to score the first goal of the game. The Leafs have scored first in 37 of 67 games (55%). Meanwhile, the Caps have been slow starters this season, giving up the first goal in 38 of 67 games (57%). The Leafs got a tongue-lashing from Sheldon Keefe in his post-game interview. I’d imagine they come out hot on the second night of their back-to-back. 

Next up, I like the Over on the alternate total of 5.5 goals. We’ve seen 6+ goals scored in seven of the last nine meetings between these two teams. They also combine for an average of 6.17 goals per game.

For my final leg, I like for the Leafs to go Over their team total of 2.5 goals. They’ve cashed this prop in four straight games and average 3.58 goals per game this season, while the Caps allow 3.04 goals per game. Additionally, the Leafs have gone over this number in six of the last seven meetings against Washington.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Maple Leafs vs Capitals moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Maple Leafs come into tonight as the road favorite at -145 odds, with the Capitals getting +120 odds at home. The Leafs have had a lot of success against Washington lately, with a 6-1 record in the Sheldon Keefe era. However, the Leafs are on the road, playing their second game in as many nights. Plus, the Caps are red-hot. I’m saying away from picking a side.

The total for tonight’s game is set at 6 goals, shaded toward the Over at -120, with the Under at even money (+100) odds. I do like the Over here, as both teams average 6.17 goals per game between the two with six or more goals scored in seven of the last 10 meetings between the two teams. Also consider buying half a goal to get the total at 5.5 as insurance at -155.

Maple Leafs vs Capitals betting trend to know

The Maple Leafs have hit the second period moneyline in 16 of their last 24 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Capitals.

Maple Leafs vs Capitals game info

Maple Leafs vs Capitals latest injuries

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