We’ve got 10 games on the NHL slate tonight, including an Original Six battle between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the New York Rangers.
The NHL odds favor New York on home ice — a place it's been dominant — against a Toronto side coming in on a second night of a back-to-back.
Find out why in my free NHL picks for the Maple Leafs vs. Rangers on December 12.
Maple Leafs vs Rangers odds
Maple Leafs vs Rangers predictions
Who doesn’t love an Original Six matchup?
The Toronto Maple Leafs enter tonight’s game coming off a 4-3 overtime loss to the New York Islanders Monday night. Meanwhile, the New York Rangers are fresh off an impressive 4-1 win over the L.A. Kings on home ice.
The Rangers improved to 9-2 on home ice with that win and have been dominating teams with a 55% goal share. The Blueshirts are averaging 3.45 goals per game at MSG while only allowing 2.73 goals against, and I envision a similar outcome tonight against the Maple Leafs.
There are a few reasons to believe the Rangers have an edge tonight against the Buds.
First, Toronto has played a lot of hockey this week. The Leafs are playing their fourth game in six nights and will be on the second night of a back-to-back. It’s entirely possible Toronto runs out of gas tonight and the more superior Rangers team takes advantage.
The next edge New York has is in goal.
In six career games against Toronto, Igor Shesterkin boasts a 4-1-1 record with a 2.15 GAA and a .934 SV%. As for the Leafs, the team turns to Martin Jones to make his first start as a Maple Leaf. He’s been poor this season — sporting a .870 SV% and a 3.37 GAA — and his career numbers against the New York aren’t much better either (.894SV%, 3.24GAA).
To add to the concern in goal, Toronto is still missing three top-six blueliners, and it’s resulted in leaky defensive play. The Leafs give up the 24th most shots per game and allow 3.22 expected goals (23rd), to go along with 3.2 actual goals a night.
Another way N.Y. can take advantage is special teams. The Rangers own the second-best power play in the NHL with a 30% success rate and have scored five times in their last five games. That’s another avenue for New York to get some offense tonight and come out on top, hopefully in regulation... where 16 of the Rangers’ 19 wins have come from.
My best bet: Rangers 3-way moneyline (+105 at SIA)
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Maple Leafs vs Rangers same-game parlay
Rangers moneyline
Over 5.5 goals
Rangers last to score
For leg one of my same-game parlay, I’ll go with my best bet and take the Rangers on the moneyline.
Next up, let’s take the Over on the alternate total of 5.5 goals. The Rangers should be able to find offense with Jones in goal and Toronto possibly playing sloppy with some tired legs. The Leafs should also be good for a couple of goals themselves, as they do average three per game on the road. Plus, Shesterkin has struggled a bit this year and is coming off a pair of losses where he posted a sub .900 SV% in both.
For my final leg, let’s roll with the Rangers to score the last goal of the game. New York’s highest-scoring period at home has been the third, averaging 1.36 goals per game while giving up just .88 goals.
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Maple Leafs vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The New York Rangers are favored on the moneyline (-150) with the Maple Leafs coming in as the rare underdogs at +125 odds. New York looks like the cream of the crop in the NHL and Toronto is on night two of a back-to-back with Martin Jones in goal, so I think the books have this one right.
The total for this game is set at 6.0 goals, with the Over giving -120 odds and even money on the Under (+100). Historically, we’ve seen five of the last six games between these two teams go Under the total. However, I suspect a little more offense than usual as both teams have struggled defensively, while both teams are averaging 3+ goals of offense per game.
Maple Leafs vs Rangers betting trend to know
The Rangers are 9-4-1 this season on one day’s rest. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Rangers.
Maple Leafs vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Madison Square Garden, New York, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, December 12, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN, MSG |
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