Three days into the week and we're turning a profit thanks to plus-money NHL props. It’s the day before the deadline, injuries are piling up, lines and players are moving, and that means there are angles to exploit in the NHL prop market.
These are my three favorite NHL player props for Thursday, March 6.
NHL prop picks and best bets for March 6
Suzuki + Caufield o0.5 points each (+130 at bet365)
Skjei o0.5 assists (+155 at DraftKings)
Hedman o0.5 assists (-105 at bet365)
Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets
Nick Suzuki + Cole Caufield Over 0.5 points each (+130 at bet365)
The Edmonton Oilers have struggled to keep the puck out of the net since the restart and have been outscored 28-15 over six games, which includes five losses. Tonight’s goalie, Stuart Skinner, last won a game more than 30 days ago. It’s a good team to fade right now and the Montreal Canadiens are the perfect fit for some value.
Montreal is in a dogfight for a playoff spot and Nick Suzuki has been on fire since being snubbed for the 4 Nations Face-Off. In his five games since the restart, the Montreal captain has 13 points and four multi-point games. The Suzuki/Cole Caufield stack has been perfect since the break and is a buy today at +135 and as short as +115/+120.
Montreal has next to zero secondary scoring and this line has accounted for 30% of the team’s goals this year.
The power play also has a great matchup vs. an Edmonton penalty kill that ranks dead last in hockey since February 1. If you're greedy, add Juraj Slafkovsky for +300, but the Caufield/Suzuki pair cannot be stopped right now.
Brady Skjei Over 0.5 assists (+155 at DraftKings)
I’ve had a lot of success this week betting on PP1 defensemen filling in for injuries. Thomas Harley, Zac Jones, and Noah Hanifin have all paid off and I’m adding Brady Skjei to the list tonight.
Roman Josi is out so Skjei will be taking PP1 duties. The Nashville Predators didn’t have one power play last game and the D-man still played over 24 minutes, which is well above his season average of 21:32.
The Seattle Kraken PK has also been a bottom-three unit since February, so there is optimism that the Predators PP can get going tonight. Seattle has also lost some key defensive pieces in forwards Yanni Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand, so there are some holes in this lineup. Brandon Tanev will also be held out for trade scenarios.
The Predators have not been a winning team all year, but their advanced metrics do show signs of late optimism, ranking in the Top 10 in most expected scoring metrics. Let’s hope rearguard assists keep padding the pockets this week and Seattle is gutted after trading away starters.
Victor Hedman Over 0.5 assists (-105 at bet365)
Fading the Buffalo Sabres today is a smart move. The team is doing nothing at the deadline except giving money away to Jordan Greenway. They just got beat 6-2 to the Sharks — who were on the second of a back-to-back — have lost four straight, and now open a trip in Florida — away from the Buffalo weather. This team is in a bad place hockey-wise.
Their opponent is on the opposite end of the spectrum. The Tampa Bay Lightning have won nine of their last 10, just added more pieces for a playoff push, and could run up the score tonight.
There are a lot of stacks in this game but Victor Hedman at -105 for just one assist is a good buy. He moved back to PP1 because of the trades and will now play with a loaded unit. Nikita Kucherov is not double-dipping on both power plays, so the PP1 group might get 75-80% of the time, and the D-man is coming off a three-point night vs. the Blue Jackets.
The Sabres have given up at least four goals in each of their consecutive defeats and the PK is at 65% over the last 30 days. Like Florida and Colorado tonight, the Bolts could run away with their matchup on Thursday night.
NHL odds today
Here are the full NHL odds for all of today’s matchups.
Not intended for use in MA.
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