Senators vs Ducks Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s NHL Game

The Ducks can't score and Senators goalie Linus Ullmark is finally showing signs of his best self. While the moneyline is juiced to oblivion, taking Ottawa to win in regulation is far more reasonable.

Neil Parker - Analyst at Covers.com
Neil Parker • Betting Analyst
Dec 11, 2024 • 09:11 ET • 4 min read

NHL

Match starts: 6 hrs
OTT
65 %
ANA
35 %
EXPERT PICK - PROP
Senators in regulation (-134) Senators in regulation (-134)
Read Analysis
Linus Ullmark Ottawa Senators NHL
Photo By - Imagn Images.

The Ottawa Senators welcome the Anaheim Ducks to the Canadian Tire Centre on Wednesday, December 11 at 7:30 p.m. ET on Sportsnet.

Ottawa is below the playoff line and needs to start picking up wins in bunches to end a seven-year postseason drought, and our top Senators vs. Ducks predictions and NHL picks call for the home team to take care of business in regulation.

Senators vs Ducks prediction

My Senators pick
Senators in regulation (-134 at Pinnacle)

My Senators analysis

The Ottawa Senators have been one of the more unlucky teams at 5-on-5 with the fourth-lowest PDO (97.8) despite tilting the ice in their favor with a seventh-ranked 52.5 Corsi For percentage and eighth-ranked 52.2 expected goals percentage. 

It’s been even more pronounced at the Canadian Tire Centre, too.

Ottawa sports a higher 53.4 CF% and 54.4 xGF% with a slightly lower 97.5 PDO. The Sens are also 8-6-1 at home compared to 4-7-1 on the highway.

Sens No. 1 Linus Ullmark is also dialing in, winning three of his past four starts with a high-end .939 save percentage and 1.96 GAA with 3.63 total goals saved above average.

The Anaheim Ducks rank 30th in goals per game (2.42), 28th in goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, and 29th with a 15.8 power-play percentage also bodes well for Ullmark staying hot.

This also checks out as a 5-on-5 mismatch with Anaheim sporting a 30th-ranked 45.7 CF% and 32nd-ranked 43.8 xGF%, and the Ducks have also dropped three straight, including two in regulation. 

The elephant in the room, or on the ice, is Anaheim has been a defensive force on the road with the third-fewest goals against (2.36). Still, the Ducks are set for serious statistical correction on the highway with their .943 team save percentage at 5-on-5 being beyond unsustainable given their 31st-ranked 43.5 CF% and league-low 39.8 xGF%.

Finally, this is a must-win game on the calendar if the Sens are going to start a postseason push because they have a nine-game road trip bookending the upcoming holiday break.

Senators vs Ducks Odds analysis

There hasn’t been notable movement to this moneyline or puck line at Pinnacle. The price is already steep on the Ottawa side, and given the highlighted gap in the 5-on-5 numbers, I’m not surprised there hasn’t been action on Anaheim.

It’s a similar story with the 6.0 total at Pinnacle. Neither side has seen significant action, and while Ottawa has trended to the Over at home, Anaheim has actually been stingy on the road with the third-fewest goals against per game (2.36).

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Play at Pinnacle: Offering 25 + years of betting experience

Make your Senators wagers at Pinnacle, which offers Canadians unbeatable value with the most competitive odds in the industry and high limits — come find out why Pinnacle is home to better odds and better payouts!

19+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Senators vs Ducks odds

Senators vs Ducks live odds

Senators vs Ducks opening odds

  • Puck line: Ottawa -1.5 (+111) | Anaheim +1.5 (-128)
  • Moneyline: Ottawa -230 | Anaheim +198
  • Over/Under: Over 6 (-113) | Under 6 (-101)

Odds courtesy of Pinnacle

Senators vs Ducks trend

The Ottawa Senators have hit the game total Over in 23 of their last 40 games at home (+5.95 Units / 13% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs. Ducks.

How to watch Senators vs Ducks

Location: Canadian Tire Center, Ottawa, ON
Date: Wednesday, 12-11-2024
Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: Sportsnet

Senators vs Ducks latest injuries

Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.

Pages related to this topic

Betting Analyst

Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs with Sportsbook Review, USA TODAY, theScore, DraftKings Playbook, and RotoWire, among many others. He also co-hosted the Daily Fantasy Edge podcast and can now be seen offering expert golf and hockey advice on Covers’ Before you Bet broadcast.

Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.

Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.

Neil’s top pieces of advice for recreational bettors are to stay within your means and to remember sportsbooks aren’t bank accounts. Don’t be afraid to pull those winnings and treat yourself to a lifetime experience courtesy of a big win.

Popular Content

Legal Canadian sports betting

Best Canadian betting sites Ontario sports betting
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo