The Edmonton Oilers are riding a six-game winning streak ahead of their Saturday night matchup with the reeling Ottawa Senators, who sit last in the East and haven’t shown the same push as the Oilers have following a coaching change of their own.
With Ottawa’s struggles on the road and a Bottom-3 penalty kill, are NHL odds bettors in for another big game from arguably the best line in hockey tonight and more shots from Zach Hyman?
Find out in my free NHL picks for Senators vs. Oilers on Saturday, January 6.
Senators vs Oilers odds
Senators vs Oilers predictions
The Edmonton Oilers have a good matchup across the board tonight and while most of that is priced in, not all of it is.
The Ottawa Senators has seen no improvements from a coaching change, is allowing the sixth-most shots on goal/60 at even strength since December 1, ranks in the Bottom 10 in expected goals against/60, and owns the third-worst penalty kill at 69%.
Their goaltending has been an issue with the No. 27 save percentage at 5-on-5 since the beginning of December and they’ve started their current five-game road trip 0-2 SU following their last road trip that finished 0-5 SU and got former head coach DJ Smith canned.
The McDavid-Hyman-Nugent-Hopkins line is on fire again and with the edge they have on the power play, getting a piece of that trio is where I’m looking for the best value.
Zach Hyman Over 3.5 shots on goal is where I see the best value. The top-line winger and PP1 contributor has 14 goals over his last 17 games dating back to November 22 and has been firing a ton of shots on net.
Over those 17 games, he’s averaging 4.65 shots per game and even more at home at 4.9. The home splits are important here as this line will get great offensive matchups with the last change.
He’s 12-5 to the Over 3.5 shots over that stretch and 7-1 O/U in those eight home games. Ottawa has just four wins over 14 road games this year and allows the seventh-most shots per game on the road. They’ve also given up 34+ shots in five of their last eight games.
With Edmonton’s top line rolling, getting last change, and Ottawa’s struggles on the road in addition to the PK, Hyman will continue to shoot the puck tonight.
My best bet: Zach Hyman Over 3.5 shots on goal (-110 at SIA)
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Senators vs Oilers same-game parlay
Zach Hyman anytime goalscorer
Oilers first-period -0.5
Over 6.5
Hyman has been the goal scorer of late with 14 over his last 17 games as Leon Draissaitl is slumping.
The Oilers are the best first-period team in hockey and get an Ottawa team that has been awful on the road.
Goals are to be expected with two possible starters who rank in the Bottom 10 in GSAx/60 in all of hockey.
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Senators vs Oilers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Oilers opened as -205 home favorites on the moneyline and although some money has come in on the Senators, I’m not giving Ottawa a very good chance tonight.
It’s two teams playing different hockey. The Oilers were 31st in the league not too long ago and have since gone on a 14-3 SU run across their last 17 games. Connor McDavid is making his push for the Hart and this top line is seemingly unstoppable — especially for a frustrated and undisciplined team like Ottawa.
Following Thursday’s loss to the Kraken, the new coach questioned the Sens’ composure.
"I thought we were playing pretty good, and we just lost our composure," interim coach Jacques Martin said. "We had a couple good chances to score, their goalie makes some saves, and then we don't stay with the course. We tried to cheat, we gave them some opportunities, they score two, and it's tough to come back."
Ottawa sits dead last in the East, is 3-9 SU in its last 12, and has lost seven straight road games out of province. Anton Forsberg is the likely starter and was pulled in his last game after giving up four goals over 13 shots. Their PK also ranks 30th over the last six weeks. It’s ugly everywhere for this team.
The total is likely the better of the Big 3 to tackle. It opened at 7 and currently sits at -110 a side. Both teams have been profitable to the Over which is key as Unders have hit at 51% on the season. Both teams can score and have scoring depth on their top two lines, while a possible game of Forsberg vs. Stuart Skinner doesn’t scream Under.
The Edmonton goalie has been better of late but still ranks 52nd of 64 goalies (minimum of 10 starts) in goals saved above expected/60 while Forberg ranks 63rd of 64.
I'm also hitting the Oilers to win the first period at +115. Edmonton has won the 1P -0.5 in 56 of their last 89 games for a cool +11% ROI and no other team has scored more 1P goals this year. Edmonton to score 2+ in the first period is also an enticing +150.
Senators vs Oilers betting trend to know
The Oilers have cashed the first-period moneyline in 56 of their last 89 games (+16.20 units / 11% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs. Oilers.
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Senators vs Oilers game info
| Location: | Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB |
| Date: | Saturday, January 6, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC, CITY |
Senators vs Oilers latest injuries
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