MLB Picks

Get free expert and computer MLB picks for every game on May 4, 2026. With over 25 years of betting experience, our analysts and predictive models help you find the best value.

New York Mets logo NYM @ Colorado Rockies logo COL Mon, May 4 • 5:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Juan Soto logo
Juan Soto o1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Projection 2.68
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Coors Field ranks as the #1 field in baseball for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to more offense.. Juan Soto will hold the platoon advantage against Tomoyuki Sugano in today's game.
Total Bases
Ezequiel Tovar logo
Ezequiel Tovar o1.5 Total Bases (+159)
Projection 1.79
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ezequiel Tovar in the 77th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.. Coors Field ranks as the #1 field in baseball for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built 5197 feet above sea level, Coors Field has the highest altitude in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to more offense.. Batting from the opposite that Tobias Myers throws from, Ezequiel Tovar will have an advantage in today's game.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Ezequiel Tovar will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
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Boston Red Sox logo BOS @ Detroit Tigers logo DET Mon, May 4 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Jahmai Jones logo
Jahmai Jones u0.5 Total Hits (+110)
Projection 0.61
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Jahmai Jones hits many of his flyballs to center field (37.9% — 76th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 2nd-deepest CF fences today.. Out of all the teams in action today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox.
Total Bases
Jahmai Jones logo
Jahmai Jones u1.5 Total Bases (-210)
Projection 0.61
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Jahmai Jones hits many of his flyballs to center field (37.9% — 76th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball's 2nd-deepest CF fences today.. Out of all the teams in action today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Boston Red Sox.
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Toronto Blue Jays logo TOR @ Tampa Bay Rays logo TB Mon, May 4 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Ryan Vilade logo
Ryan Vilade u0.5 Total Hits (+135)
Projection 0.71
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Ryan Vilade ranks in the 16th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. In today's matchup, Ryan Vilade is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.9% rate (92nd percentile).. Out of every team on the slate today, the 4th-best infield defense is that of the the Toronto Blue Jays.. Sporting a .187 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season , Ryan Vilade is ranked in the 16th percentile.
Total Hits
Yohendrick Pinango logo
Yohendrick Pinango u0.5 Total Hits (+120)
Projection 0.66
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Yohendrick Pinango is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this matchup.. Tropicana Field has the 9th-deepest CF fences among all major league stadiums.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-most suitable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. Yohendrick Pinango will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup.
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Philadelphia Phillies logo PHI @ Miami Marlins logo MIA Mon, May 4 • 6:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Kyle Stowers logo
Kyle Stowers u0.5 Total Hits (+185)
Projection 0.9
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest altitudes in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. The weather forecast predicts the 5th-most suitable pitching conditions of all games on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Kyle Stowers pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.1% — 78th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 4th-deepest RF fences today.. Kyle Stowers has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 19.5% rate last year has decreased to 3.7% this year.. Kyle Stowers's launch angle this season (4.3°) is a considerable dropoff from his 14.2° mark last season.
Total Bases
Kyle Schwarber logo
Kyle Schwarber o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.78
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Kyle Schwarber projects as the 3rd-best home run batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Batting from the opposite that Janson Junk throws from, Kyle Schwarber will have an advantage in today's game.. Kyle Schwarber has big-time power (100th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (28.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Janson Junk has a pitch-to-contact profile (18th percentile K%) — great news for Schwarber.. In the past week's worth of games, Kyle Schwarber's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 99.7-mph over the course of the season to 109-mph lately.
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Baltimore Orioles logo BAL @ New York Yankees logo NYY Mon, May 4 • 7:05 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Total
Baltimore Orioles logo New York Yankees logo u8.5 (-110)
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 hours ago
Jason Wilson image
Jason Wilson
Publishing Editor

The question here is, will the Yankees do enough damage against Shane Baz to clear this total on their own? Cam Schlittler will neutralize the Orioles' bats, and Baz should be better than he's looked. He throws hard, throws strikes, and unless it's an unmitigated disaster, I like the Under.

Total Hits
Cody Bellinger logo
Cody Bellinger u0.5 Total Hits (+185)
Projection 0.84
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Cody Bellinger's BABIP talent is projected in the 15th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Built just 11 feet above sea level, Yankee Stadium has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league parks, which often leads to worse offense.. This game is projected to have the 3rd-best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Cody Bellinger has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 6.6% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last two weeks.
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Cincinnati Reds logo CIN @ Chicago Cubs logo CHC Mon, May 4 • 7:40 PM ET
1 Expert Pick 10 Computer Picks
Total
Cincinnati Reds logo Chicago Cubs logo u11.0 (+100)
Best Odds
Pick made: 11 hours ago
Jason Wilson image
Jason Wilson
Publishing Editor

This number is too high. Yes, Chase Petty is making his season debut for the Reds, and his first taste of MLB opposition went extremely poorly last season. But he has at least some pedigree, and Cincinnati won't hang him out to dry. And Cubs SP Edward Cabrera has looked mostly sharp to start his season (3.06 ERA, 1.19 WHIP). 

Total Hits
JJ Bleday logo
JJ Bleday u0.5 Total Hits (+140)
Projection 0.72
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
JJ Bleday's BABIP skill is projected in the 7th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. JJ Bleday pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.5% — 85th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 5th-deepest RF fences today.. The Chicago Cubs infield defense profiles as the strongest among every team on the slate today.. Chicago's #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for JJ Bleday, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.. Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for JJ Bleday in today's game.
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Cleveland Guardians logo CLE @ Kansas City Royals logo KC Mon, May 4 • 7:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Jac Caglianone logo
Jac Caglianone o1.5 Total Bases (+185)
Projection 1.51
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
As it relates to his home run skill, Jac Caglianone ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the best for hitting of all games on the slate today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for bats.. Jac Caglianone will hold the platoon advantage against Tanner Bibee today.
Total Bases
Salvador Perez logo
Salvador Perez o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.87
Best Odds
Pick made: 1 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When estimating his home run talent, Salvador Perez ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Salvador Perez is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.. Kauffman Stadium sits at the 4th-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation often leads to higher offensive output.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the best for hitting of all games on the slate today.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 13-mph in this contest, the 2nd-best of the day for bats.
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Milwaukee Brewers logo MIL @ St. Louis Cardinals logo STL Mon, May 4 • 7:45 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Ivan Herrera logo
Ivan Herrera o1.5 Total Bases (+152)
Projection 1.71
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
When assessing his overall offensive ability, Ivan Herrera ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ivan Herrera is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest fence height (on average) in Major League Baseball.. The weather report predicts the 2nd-most suitable hitting weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Extreme groundball hitters like Ivan Herrera are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Chad Patrick.
Total Bases
Alec Burleson logo
Alec Burleson o1.5 Total Bases (+145)
Projection 1.75
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest fence height (on average) in Major League Baseball.. The weather report predicts the 2nd-most suitable hitting weather of all games today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Hitting from the opposite that Chad Patrick throws from, Alec Burleson will have an edge in today's matchup.
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Los Angeles Dodgers logo LAD @ Houston Astros logo HOU Mon, May 4 • 8:10 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Andy Pages logo
Andy Pages u0.5 Total Hits (+190)
Projection 0.87
Best Odds
Pick made: 8 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Andy Pages is penciled in 6th in the batting order today.. Minute Maid Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Extreme flyball bats like Andy Pages tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Steven Okert.. Out of every team on the slate today, the 4th-best infield defense is that of the the Houston Astros.. Andy Pages will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game.
Total Hits
Kyle Tucker logo
Kyle Tucker u0.5 Total Hits (+170)
Projection 0.82
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Minute Maid Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. Kyle Tucker will hold the platoon advantage against Steven Okert in today's matchup.. In today's matchup, Kyle Tucker is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.5% rate (89th percentile).. Extreme groundball bats like Kyle Tucker generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Steven Okert.. Out of every team on the slate today, the 4th-best infield defense is that of the the Houston Astros.
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Chicago White Sox logo CHW @ Los Angeles Angels logo LAA Mon, May 4 • 9:38 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Nolan Schanuel logo
Nolan Schanuel u0.5 Total Hits (+185)
Projection 0.85
Best Odds
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 2nd-most suitable for pitching of all games today.. Nolan Schanuel's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 90.9-mph average last year has dropped off to 86-mph.. Over the last week, Nolan Schanuel's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal average of 86 mph to 70.3 mph.
Total Hits
Munetaka Murakami logo
Munetaka Murakami u0.5 Total Hits (+115)
Projection 0.57
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 2nd-most suitable for pitching of all games today.. Munetaka Murakami will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game.. Munetaka Murakami has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 21.9% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the last 7 days.. Munetaka Murakami's average exit velocity has declined recently; his 94.9-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 89.5-mph over the last 7 days.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Munetaka Murakami's true offensive ability to be a .355, indicating that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .047 deviation between that mark and his actual .402 wOBA.
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Atlanta Braves logo ATL @ Seattle Mariners logo SEA Mon, May 4 • 9:40 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Bases
Austin Riley logo
Austin Riley o1.5 Total Bases (+190)
Projection 1.72
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Riley in the 92nd percentile when estimating his home run ability.. Austin Riley is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today.. T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest fences in Major League Baseball.. Long-balls are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all major league parks.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting on the slate.
Total Bases
Michael Harris II logo
Michael Harris II o1.5 Total Bases (+165)
Projection 1.87
Best Odds
Pick made: an hour ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 95th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.. Michael Harris II has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (85% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today.. T-Mobile Park has the 9th-lowest fences in Major League Baseball.. Long-balls are generally more common at venues with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 2nd-shallowest among all major league parks.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 4th-most favorable for hitting on the slate.
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San Diego Padres logo SD @ San Francisco Giants logo SF Mon, May 4 • 9:45 PM ET
10 Computer Picks
Total Hits
Luis Campusano logo
Luis Campusano u0.5 Total Hits (+163)
Projection 0.79
Best Odds
Pick made: 27 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Campusano in the 25th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Luis Campusano is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this game.. Oracle Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which often leads to lower offensive output.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly correlated with lower temperatures, and the weather forecast for this contest expects the lowest temperature on the slate today at 58°.. Trevor McDonald will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Luis Campusano in today's game.
Total Bases
Rafael Devers logo
Rafael Devers u1.5 Total Bases (-190)
Projection 0.82
Best Odds
Pick made: 9 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 3 out of 5
Oracle Park projects as the #23 venue in the league for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Oracle Park has the tallest fence height (on average) among all stadiums.. Oracle Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which often leads to lower offensive output.. Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly correlated with lower temperatures, and the weather forecast for this contest expects the lowest temperature on the slate today at 58°.. Rafael Devers has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 7.4% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the last 14 days.
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